The concept of a Digital Twin of the Earth presents an exciting opportunity to develop a highly precise virtual representation of our planet, allowing researchers to predict complex climate trends and extreme natural phenomena with unprecedented accuracy. This ambitious vision is at the core of the Destination Earth project, a flagship initiative funded by the European Union.
Launched in 2022, it serves as a critical element of the European Commission’s Green Deal strategy, though it hasn’t been without its detractors.
Professor Robert Reinecke from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz has expressed concerns about the ambiguity surrounding the term “Digital Twin of the Earth,” asserting that it can lead to misconceptions. He explains that all digital representations of our planet are inherently model representations, meaning they will always be somewhat separate from actual reality—much like how a map cannot fully encapsulate the land it represents.
As a specialist in Earth system modeling, the Mainz-based geoscientist appreciates the new intricate simulation models as instruments for exploring and evaluating theories about the world in manners that would otherwise be impossible. Nonetheless, he emphasizes that new techniques and methodologies are necessary to ensure the proper application and interpretation of these models.
Destination Earth (DestinE) is a flagship program by the European Commission, poised to revolutionize our understanding of the planet by creating an exceptionally accurate digital model—a digital twin of Earth.
Leveraging Europe’s advanced High-performance computers (EuroHPC), including the cutting-edge LUMI supercomputer in Finland, alongside state-of-the-art Artificial Intelligence, DestinE is crafting multiple digital replicas that capture critical aspects of the Earth system.
By the year 2030, a complete digital replica of the Earth is expected to be ready, which will facilitate more precise monitoring and forecasting of climate change impacts and natural disasters, as well as aid in developing strategies for adaptation and mitigation. The Digital Twin concept is also being explored in other sectors: the German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is developing an intelligent 3D representation of Germany, while the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany is conducting a project focused on a digital “hydro-twin.”
Professor Robert Reinecke, alongside his co-authors Professor Francesca Pianosi from the University of Bristol and Alexander von Humboldt Professor Thorsten Wagener from the University of Potsdam, challenges the use of the term “Digital Twin of the Earth.” They argue that this phrase misleads regarding the capabilities of digital representations, suggesting an unrealistic ability to accurately stress-test the Earth system’s structural properties.
In their paper published in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, they clarify that every model is inherently a simplification of the complexity of reality, necessitating certain assumptions that introduce unavoidable uncertainties. Consequently, they advocate for the abandonment of the term “Digital Twin of the Earth” to foster a more accurate understanding of the limitations within environmental modeling.
Reinecke and his colleagues at the JGU Institute of Geography utilize models that encompass the entire planet, and he appreciates the rationale behind the EU initiative. Simulation models serve as effective digital laboratories that enable researchers to test and validate their assumptions about the world in ways that cannot be replicated through real-world experiments.
However, Reinecke cautions that merely increasing the resolutions of these models does not automatically lead to better insights or outcomes. The construction of complex models necessitates innovative methodologies to ensure researchers can effectively apply them.
To truly understand how these models operate and how various inputs influence results, they often require extensive iterations—thousands to millions of simulations. Reinecke stresses the need for investment in new methodologies that will guarantee the responsible and adept use of these models. His team is already developing preliminary ideas and will pursue these advancements in the future.
Moreover, Reinecke and his co-authors raise an important concern about the implications of creating a Digital Twin of the Earth. They argue that a “reductionist view of nature as a machine” could pose risks to democratic principles, as such models might be misused for political manipulation and control.
They reference the cautionary tale of a mapmaker striving to create the perfect map, asserting that “such a map is as impossible as a perfect digital representation of reality.” This serves as a warning for both scientists and decision-makers not to be swayed by the allure of flawless representation.
Journal reference:
- R. Reinecke, F. Pianosi, T. Wagener. How to use the impossible map – Considerations for a Rigorous Exploration of Digital Twins of the Earth. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 2024; DOI: 10.18174/sesmo.18786