Researchers from the Universities of Oxford, Bristol, and Copenhagen have developed a new model to predict serious complications after shoulder replacement surgery. Published in The Lancet Rheumatology on July 31, this tool can help patients and doctors make better decisions about the procedure.
Shoulder replacements are becoming more common, with some countries seeing a 17-fold increase in surgeries in the past decade. However, over five percent of patients experience serious complications requiring hospital admission.
Epaminondas Markos Valsamis, the lead author from the University of Oxford, explained that despite the rise in severe events, there is no widely used model to predict individual patient risk. Accurate predictions are essential for making informed decisions, as identified by patients, carers, and clinicians.
Dr. Adrian Sayers from Bristol Medical School at University of Bristol said that deciding on surgery is tough, and patients need help to weigh the risks and benefits. He hopes the new tool will assist both patients and surgeons in making this decision.
The Oxford team, with researchers from Bristol and Copenhagen, developed the risk prediction model using data from the National Joint Registry and NHS in England. They analyzed over 40,000 shoulder replacement patients, considering factors like age and medical conditions.
The model was then tested on data from 6,600 shoulder replacements in Denmark, showing that it works well and can be used beyond the English population.
Markos Valsamis said, “The model is accurate and valuable in England and Denmark, which benefits clinical practice. The model uses inputs like age, sex, and medical conditions to predict the risk of serious complications, such as chest infections, heart attacks, and strokes, within 90 days after surgery.”
Gillian Coward, NJR Patient Representative, said this model helps patients understand their surgery risks and work with their surgeons to make informed decisions.
Jeppe Vejlgaard Rasmussen, a surgeon from the University of Copenhagen, noted that reducing complications can improve patient recovery and lower healthcare costs.
Professor Jonathan Rees from Oxford said the teams are working to make the prediction model available online through national societies and partners.
In conclusion, the new prediction model helps patients understand their risks before having shoulder replacement surgery.
Journal reference:
- Epaminondas Markos Valsamis, Marie Louise Jensen, et al., Risk of serious adverse events after primary shoulder replacement: development and external validation of a prediction model using linked national data from England and Denmark. The Lancet Rheumatology. DOI:10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00149-8.