Blood test predicts Dementia risk up to 10 years in advance

Blood test predicts Dementia risk up to 10 years in advance

Detecting dementia, including Alzheimer’s, early is crucial for timely treatment and better patient care. Blood tests have emerged as promising and less invasive tools for identifying dementia.

They offer time and cost advantages compared to invasive methods. However, most research has focused on patients in memory clinics, limiting evidence of their effectiveness in the general population.

Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have shown that certain blood biomarkers, like tau217, NfL, and GFAP, can predict the risk of dementia, including Alzheimer’s, up to ten years before diagnosis.

In collaboration with SciLifeLab and KTH Royal Institute of Technology, they analyzed blood samples from over 2,100 adults aged 60+, tracking their health over time to see if they developed dementia.

After ten years, researchers identified 364 dementia cases, with 212 (58%) being Alzheimer’s dementia. Those who developed dementia were generally older, more often female, had lower education levels, and experienced more chronic illnesses.

The biomarkers used in the study showed an accuracy of up to 83%, offering promising potential for predicting dementia risk effectively.

Individuals with low levels of these biomarkers are less likely to develop dementia within the next decade, offering reassurance to those concerned about their cognitive health.

However, the study found that elevated biomarker levels alone cannot reliably predict who will develop dementia, as they have low positive predictive values.

As a result, researchers caution against using these biomarkers as standalone screening tools for the general population at this time.
Combining the three most relevant biomarkers – p-tau217 with NfL or GFAP – could improve predictive accuracy.

Further studies are required to better understand how these biomarkers can be effectively used in real-world settings.

Journal Reference

  1. Grande, G., Valletta, M., Rizzuto, D., Xia, X., Qiu, C., Orsini, N., Dale, M., Andersson, S., Fredolini, C., Winblad, B., Laukka, E. J., Fratiglioni, L., & Vetrano, D. L. (2025). Blood-based biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease and incident dementia in the community. Nature Medicine, 1-9. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03605-x

Source: Tech Explorist

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