Young voters will help shape November election outcomes

They protest, they identify with political parties and they vote. They were born after 1990.

Young people reaching the age to vote for the first time (18 years old) are more involved in the political process today than the generations before them were at the same age.

Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, said this under-30 group is an activist generation that votes in higher proportions even than the politically engaged Baby Boom generation did during the 1960s.

Today’s young voters are better educated than earlier generations too. They are digital natives, and many of them keep up with news, though they may get it on social media rather than traditional outlets.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, young voters were responsible for 17 percent of all votes cast, according to Tufts University experts. The share of the eligible young voters who showed up at the polls reached 50%, a significant jump from the election four years earlier.

Bar graph showing 39% youth turnout in 2016 election, 50% turnout in 2020 (State Dept./F. Carter. Source: CIRCLE)
Youth turnout in recent U.S. presidential contests (State Dept./F. Carter. Source: CIRCLE)

The two graphs, though using different methodologies, offer a clear picture of the increase in voting by young Americans.

“The No. 1 thing that drives it, is the competitiveness and ferocity of American politics right at the time they came of age,” says McLean, a contributor to a book titled Generational Politics in the U.S. from Silents to Gen Z and Beyond.

Line graph showing trend for young voters who cast ballots (State Dept./F. Carter. Source: CIRCLE)
Estimates of the percentage of eligible young voters in the last seven presidential elections who cast ballots (State Dept./F. Carter. Source: CIRCLE)

“First-time voters usually make up about 10 percent of the electorate,” said Alan Abramowitz, political science professor emeritus at Emory University. “In a close election, their voice is important.” Not all first-time voters are young. But, he says, those who are reflect America’s growing diversity — they are more likely to be Latino, Asian or Black than the pool of all voters.

Abramowitz expects a high turnout of younger voters for the November presidential election. “There are big differences between candidates and parties [on] issues that particularly impact young voters,” he says, citing the economy, abortion rights and foreign policy.

High school student sitting at table registering others to vote (© Lisa Rathke/AP)
In Vermont, Brattleboro Union High School students register to vote. Registered 16- and 17 years-old in Brattleboro can vote in local elections, and 17-year-olds who will be 18 by November 5’s presidential election were permitted to vote in the March presidential primary elections. (© Lisa Rathke/AP)

Not only do young adults vote in big numbers, they are expected to turn out in important battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. “They punch way above their weight,” McLean says. Like the Millennial generation just older than theirs, these youngest voters are involved with community service.

While donating to campaigns is not their usual practice, some will promote candidates through door-to-door campaigning and encourage other Americans to vote. Both parties will be fighting for their support this year. “Younger voters are going to be an important battleground in this election,” Abramowitz says.

Three people in face masks standing around table clapping (© Damian Dovarganes/AP)
Law students congratulate first-time voter Hector Escobar Solis, who got a provisional ballot to vote in the presidential election just minutes before the polls closed at Los Angeles City College, on November 3, 2020. (© Damian Dovarganes/AP)



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