Will Israel and Turkey Go to War?
With the dust barely settling after the the NATO & Israeli-backed al-Qaeda/HTS takeover of Syria in late 2024, western punditry and politicians are already spinning up a new narrative
21 NEWS WIRE
A coming confrontation between Israel and Turkey.
The seemingly tumultuous public-facing relationship between Israel and Turkey (even though they still trade and coordinate behind the scenes in key areas) is said to be heading for more turbulence – including the potential of drifting into a direct armed confrontation.
Ever since Oct 7th and the subsequent genocide by Israel of the native Palestinian population in Gaza, Turkey has deal to deal with weekly demonstrations of many thousands of people in Istanbul, all railing against Israel and expressing their solidarity with victims in Gaza. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has talked tough against Israel, there has been no action at all, other than the rolling back of a lot of trade with Tel Aviv, but still acting as a facilitator for Azerbaijan’s oil still flowing to Israel. While Erdogan denies he’s supporting Israel, the fact is that Turkey’s is playing a crucial role in supplying Israel with crude oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which transports Azeri crude oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, thus supplying Israel with as much as 28 percent of its oil imports – at a time when Israel is waging war on Gaza and Lebanon.
There is also the issue of Russia’s position in Syria’s western coastal region, in Tartous, and Latakia. The US and EU want them out, but Russia is still maintaining cordial relations with both Turkey and Israel. The current armistice may come under pressure should one of these key players come under threat. Now that the West and Israel have used the Erdogan government to achieve their long-running goal of collapsing the Syrian state, there may be little need for western powers to entertain the current regime in Turkey much longer. A renewed conflict in Syria may dislodge Turkey from Damascus, and closer to a more natural ally for the al-Qaeda/HTS regime – with the Zionist state of Israel.
One other clue – it appears Tulsi Gabbard, a committed Zionist, has been assigned an unofficial PR role by the Israeli Lobby, including a viral video released some months ago which is being re-amplified by a number of prominent Zionist accounts on X – a video condemning Erdogan and Turkey. Interesting how this video if being aggressively pushed ahead of her Senate confirmation hearings for the position as Trump’s DNI. Aside from reaffirming her allegiance to the DC war party, her video, is a clear dog whistle that opens up a lane of attack for Israel:
“Turkey’s Erdogan is not our friend.” Tulsi Gabbard
It’s time to designate Erdogan’s Turkey as a state sponsor of terrorism and remove it from NATO. Stop the genocide of Kurds. Stop Muslim Brotherhood Islamism. Defeat Hamas. pic.twitter.com/cLQEC8nhYk
— Barry Tigay (@TigayBarry) January 26, 2025
Indeed, Turkey has already served its geopolitical purpose for Washington and Tel Aviv, which means the scene could now be set for a new confrontation…
Michael Walsh from Asia Times reports…
From an analytical point of view, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the various foreign actors operating on the ground in Iraq and Syria. This includes the question of what role the Turkish Armed Forces may seek to play in their near abroad now that Bashar al-Assad has fallen.
That is an important question to ask. The Nagel Commission recently assessed that the risk of direct conflict between Israel and Turkey is real. This has led a number of prominent Israelis to call upon their own government to prepare for a war with Turkey.
In the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, Assad’s fall provided a similar policy window for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take the fight to American-backed Kurdish forces in Rojava.
Since the fall of Assad, these Kurdish fighters have been on the receiving end of targeted attacks by the Turkish Armed Forces and their proxy militias. Now, Turkey is threatening a full-scale military operation against these US allies unless they step back and accept Ankara’s terms for the future of Syria.
It is not an exaggeration to say that Turkish expansion poses an existential threat to the NATO alliance as it now stands. Over the last couple of years, Turkey and the United States have been perilously close to direct conflict in Syria on several occasions.
Under the Biden administration, the US military took the extraordinary measure of shooting down an armed drone of their NATO ally when it flew within 500 meters of American military forces. That marked what was noted as “America’s first-ever use of military force against Turkey.”
In the aftermath of that attack, at least one Washington-based think tank sparked serious discussion about whether it was time for the White House to push for Turkey’s suspension from NATO.
While that didn’t happen, the Turkish expansionism accommodation stance has crumbled in mainstream American foreign policy circles over the past year.
Israel’s Netanyahu administration is therefore faced with a puzzling state of affairs. The new pro-Islamist regime in Damascus says they want peace with Israel. However, that peace would come at a heavy cost for Israel’s national security and foreign policy interests…
Continue this analysis at Asia Times
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(SOURCE)
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