Downing Street has unveiled a whole host of new illegal migration statistics to coincide with the border security conference Keir Starmer convened in London this morning.
The prime minister boasted proudly today that more than 24,000 individuals “with no right to be in the UK” have been returned to their countries of origin since the general election.
This, No 10 says, marks the highest rate of returns in eight years. The 24,103 individuals returned between 5 July and 22 March 2025 is the highest nine-month period compared to any nine-month period since 2017. Of total returns since July, there were 6,339 enforced returns of people with no legal right to remain in the UK; 3,594 were of foreign national offenders; and 6,781 were asylum related returns.
From 5 July 2024 to 22 March 2025, the government cites 46 charter flights for returns to countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America — including the four biggest returns charter flights in the UK’s history, with a total of more than 850 people on board.
***This content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free and never miss our daily briefing.***
These stats coalesce as an unambiguous political message: the government is making good on its vow to crack down on migration — contrary to the scathing criticisms levelled at ministers by Conservative spokespeople and, above all, Reform UK.
This was the unsparing narrative Starmer articulated this morning in his opening address to the Organised Immigration Crime Summit. The prime minister sees no political advantage in subtlety or nuance as the populist menace proliferates.
“Illegal migration is a massive driver of global insecurity”, Starmer began, standing behind a lectern emblazoned with a three-word slogan — not “Stop the Boats” but “Securing Our Borders”.
The PM added: “It undermines our ability to control who comes here and that makes people angry. It makes me angry, frankly.
“Because it is unfair on ordinary working people who pay the price, from the cost of hotels, to our public services struggling under the strain. And it is unfair on the illegal migrants themselves because these are vulnerable people being ruthlessly exploited by vile gangs.”
Starmer referenced a visit he made to a camp on the outskirts of Calais in 2016, stating he was struck by the number of children “huddled together in freezing temperatures”.
The PM pledged to pursue “pragmatic solutions” as the government bears down on the people smuggling gangs, blasting the “gimmicks” that have underpinned UK immigration policy in recent years.
He continued: “We inherited this total fragmentation between our policing, our border force and our intelligence agencies.
“There were gaps in our defence, an open invitation at our borders. It should have been fixed years ago but we’re doing it now with our new Border Security Command.”
He repeated the common Labour criticism that the Conservative Party’s Rwanda deportations scheme spent £700 million “to remove just four volunteers”.
***This content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free and never miss our daily briefing.***
Turning to his own government’s record, Starmer said his administration has “returned more than 24,000 people who have no right to be here”. Even if the Rwanda scheme had worked as intended, he added, it would have taken 80 years to reach this number of deportations.
Starmer’s recurrent references to the unimplemented Rwanda scheme, overseen by three Tory prime ministers from its announcement in 2022 to its cancellation under Labour in 2024, are conceived to keep the memory of failure on illegal immigration alive — and contrast it to what Starmer sees as success today.
Above all then, Starmer’s comments this morning were directed at those voters considering switching from the two main parties to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The Organised Immigration Crime Summit is a logistical bid to focus multilateral efforts on “smashing” the smuggling gangs — but it is also a political challenge to Reform, as Starmer seeks to shore up his somewhat supple right flank.
Launching the party’s local elections campaign last week, Farage said his “simple goal” is to become the next prime minister. The speech touched heavily on migration, featuring vows to withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), “get rid” of the Human Rights Act and refuse “leave to remain” for those who arrive in the UK via small boat.
In the biggest applause line of the night, Farage added: “Everyone that comes illegally will be deported. Full stop.”
Labour has stepped up its criticism of Reform in recent weeks on those areas where it perceives the party as most vulnerable. Health secretary Wes Streeting warned last week that Reform would look to “dismantle” the NHS; Starmer has repeatedly reprimanded Farage for “fawning over Putin”; and as the Employment Rights Bill has progressed through the commons, so too have Labour attacks on Reform’s workers’ rights stance.
A letter, addressed to Farage and signed by the Red Wall group of Labour MPs this month, asked: “Will you be standing up for British workers or voting against strengthening their rights?”
Parliamentary caucuses like the Red Wall group have been urging Starmer to intensify his attacks on Reform. And the PM has duly obliged.
Starmer’s success in recent times has come from attacking Reform from positions of political strength. Reputationally, Labour is at an advantage when it criticises Reform on its confused Ukraine stance, its opposition to the Employment Rights Bill and its health policies.
***This content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free and never miss our daily briefing.***
But on migration, Labour is charging at Reform’s most obviously fortified position. Of course, Starmer does not seek to outflank Reform on migration — but rather posit a platform of policy progress that can contrast favourably with Farage’s sideline criticisms.
It’s a gamble. 34 per cent of Reform voters backed the party at the 2024 general election because of the party’s immigration stance, according to polling by YouGov. No other reason for voting Reform figured higher than 9 per cent.
But Starmer believes he has a story to tell, and the statistics unveiled at the Organised Immigration Crime Summit today are designed to tell it. The prime minister’s comments are also delivered on a point of principle. Addressing his cabinet colleagues at a cabinet away-day earlier this year, Starmer berated “progressive liberals” who have become “too relaxed about not listening to people about the impact of [immigration]”.
And in a letter sent to cabinet ministers leaked to The Sunday Times last month, Starmer insisted that Labour had lost its way on immigration because “we ended up treating all immigration as an untrammelled good”. He said it was “devastating” that a woman he met in Oldham felt she had to take out “an old box of photos to show me a wedding she had been to for her Asian neighbours” to “explain that she wasn’t a racist” before she complained about “antisocial behaviour on her street caused by groups of young men from Europe”.
So Starmer sought to echo the anxieties of voters this morning, expressing his “anger” over the levels of irregular migration.
There are two obvious risks to this positioning. The first is that by echoing the concerns of Reform-sympathetic voters he empowers its rise by diminishing the stigma around Farage’s party and tacitly endorsing its criticisms. In any case, the intended audience of Starmer’s messaging will be innately distrusting of Labour and/or appeals directed at them from establishment figures.
Secondly, Starmer runs the risk of alienating the progressive sections of his coalition, who could well accuse the government of a lack of compassion.
The PM, for what it is worth, sought to answer this specific criticism directly this morning. Commenting on his 2016 visit to the Calais migrant camp, Starmer said: “There is nothing progressive or compassionate about turning a blind eye to this”.
The prime minister is banking on progress on migration cutting through, against the inevitable backlash and siren criticism of Reform politicians. The threat posed by Reform, No 10 no doubt calculates, will focus the minds of progressive voters when electoral events approach — and especially at the general election in 2029.
Indeed, Starmer has underscored his view today that the biggest electoral risk on migration would be to do nothing at all. He insists Labour must answer the concerns of voters tempted by populism with progress. Today’s figures encapsulate this approach.
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Lunchtime briefing
‘They hear it too’: Sue Gray urges caution over civil service cuts and hits out at insults
Lunchtime soundbite
‘We can overtake the Conservatives as the second biggest party of local government in this election, replacing failing Conservative-run councils that take their residents for granted with Liberal Democrat ones that work hard for their local communities.’
— Lib Dem leader Ed Davey speaks at his party’s local elections campaign launch this morning.
Now try this…
‘Mahmood may be about to show the Tories that you can just undo things’
Henry Hill writes for ConservativeHome.
‘Lib Dems aim to become “party of Middle England”’
Via BBC News.
‘Marine Le Pen barred from running for French president’
Politico reports.
On this day in 2023:
UK must ‘not keep talking’ about Brexit vote, Badenoch says as she hails CPTPP trade deal
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Source: Politics
