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Quick Take
A chart widely shared on social media comparing macroeconomic indicators purports to show the country fared better under former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden. However, the chart cites some figures that are inaccurate, outdated or misleading.
Full Story
The state of the economy is a key campaign issue for both candidates in the 2024 presidential election. The majority of likely voters in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania said the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote for president, a CBS News/YouGov poll found in April.
Reflecting that concern, a June 25 Facebook post purports to show how Americans fared under former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden by comparing measurements of seven macroeconomic indicators under each administration. The title of the graphic reads, “In Case You’re Undecided.” Multiple other social media accounts reposted the graphic. We received numerous emailed questions from readers asking us to evaluate the data presented in the posts.
We cover many macroeconomic indicators in our quarterly reports of Biden’s Numbers and Trump’s Numbers, and we provide our sources for all of the data we use. We don’t know how all the statistics in the graphic were calculated, because the posts do not include any supporting information. However, we determined that many of the comparisons use misleading statistical methodologies, outdated time frames or dubious sources.
Additionally, reading a list of numbers and percentages alone does not provide a full explanation of how the economy’s health differed under Trump as compared with Biden. As we describe below, factors outside of any president’s control heavily influence many of the statistics cited in the graphic.
Using the most recently available data, we analyzed each of the seven macroeconomic metrics under both the Trump and Biden administrations. Here’s what we found.
Inflation Rate
Claim: 1.9% for Trump and 17% for Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic overstates inflation under Biden relative to Trump by using different methodologies to measure consumer prices.
The graphic appears to use different methodologies to measure inflation under Biden and Trump, but misleadingly reports the two figures as if they were calculated in the same way. This makes the numbers look much worse for Biden than an equivalent comparison would.
It’s true that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, increased an average of 1.9% in each of Trump’s four years in office (measured as the 12-month year-over-year change ending each January), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Using that methodology, the average annual inflation rate in Biden’s first three years, through January 2024, was 5.7% — not 17%. Over the last six months ending June 2024, prices have increased by an additional 1.4%.
Looking at total increases in consumer prices under both presidents, the CPI-U for all items increased by 7.8% over Trump’s four years in office. By comparison, the total increase in consumer prices thus far under Biden is 19.2%.
However, as we’ve written before, economists we’ve interviewed say that while Biden’s policies bear some responsibility for rising inflation under his administration, other external factors played a larger role in raising prices. Economists primarily blame rising inflation on the disruptions inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as supply shortages, labor market distortions and increased consumer spending on goods, as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Because of these disruptions, rising inflation was a global phenomenon in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Gas Prices
Claim: $2.17 for Trump and $3.96 for Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic both understates average gas prices under Trump and overstates average prices under Biden.
The gas prices cited in this graphic do not reflect the reality under both presidencies. Using data from the Energy Information Administration, we identified the national average price of regular gasoline at the pump averaged $2.48 under Trump. The highest recorded figure was $2.96 on May 28, 2018, and the lowest was $1.77 in April 2020, when the global economy nearly shut down because of the pandemic. Overall, the average nationwide gas price increased by 2.3% over the course of the Trump presidency.
Under Biden, the average nationwide price of regular gas throughout his presidency thus far is $3.50. The highest recorded price was $5.01 on June 13, 2022, and the lowest recorded price was $2.39 at the start of his presidency on Jan. 25, 2021. Overall, the average nationwide gas price has increased by 46.2% under Biden’s presidency.
Instead of citing the average price of gas over the two presidencies, the graphic apparently reported gas prices from a single month of Trump’s and Biden’s administrations. For example, the average nationwide price of regular gas was $2.18 in July 2020 and $3.98 in August 2022. However, the EIA explains that gas prices frequently fluctuate, making average prices over multiple months a more representative statistic than a single snapshot.
Similar to inflation, many factors outside of the president’s control play a significant role in altering gas prices. As we’ve written before, gas prices are primarily dictated by global crude oil markets, which fluctuate due to a myriad of international supply and demand factors. In particular, economists told us that the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the U.S.’s subsequent sanctions against Russian oil exports played a significant role in increasing gas prices under Biden.
Average Rent
Claim: $1,096 for Trump and $2,395 for Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic overstates average rent prices under Biden.
No government source tracks nationwide average rent prices in current dollars, so we used data from private sector sources. First, Apartmentlist.com identified that the average overall rent price for apartments under Trump was $1,130. Under Biden, the average overall rent price was $1,360. The highest nationwide monthly average rent price for apartments recorded under Biden’s presidency so far was $1,442 in August 2022. Over their respective terms, overall apartment rent prices increased by 7.1% under Trump and by 23% under Biden, according to Apartmentlist.com.
We also looked at Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, which tracks changes in nationwide average rent prices of all single-family homes. Zillow’s index identified that the average home rent price under the Trump administration was $1,488, as compared with $1,884 under Biden. According to Zillow’s index, home rent prices increased by 15% over the entire Trump administration, and by 30% thus far during the Biden administration.
Finally, the BLS also tracks changes in rent prices for urban consumers as an indexed value within the CPI. The index determines the percentage change in nominal rent prices in each month relative to the average price in 1982-1984 dollars. According to this index, rent prices increased by 13.6% over the entire Trump administration, and by 21.5% thus far during the Biden administration.
Nasdaq Stock Index
Claim: Up 62% under Trump, and up 13.8% under Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic understates total increases in the Nasdaq for both Trump and Biden.
As described by Motley Fool, “The Nasdaq Composite is one of the most widely followed stock indexes in the U.S. and is usually one of the three ‘headline’ indexes that market commentators often cite — along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.” The Nasdaq is focused on the technology sector.
Using data from Yahoo Finance, we identified that the Nasdaq Composite increased by 138% throughout the Trump presidency. By comparison, the Nasdaq has increased by 37.3% between the start of Biden’s presidency and July 15. Aggregated over a daily basis, the Nasdaq increased by about 0.14% per day under Trump, as compared with 0.04% per day thus far under Biden. The Nasdaq figures cited in the graphic are outdated and identical to information published by Axios on Jan. 1.
Whether the president’s actions significantly alter stock market outcomes remains a contested debate among economists. While Federal Reserve Board economists Sean Campbell and Canlin Li argue that “neither risk nor return varies significantly across the presidential cycle,” Utrecht University Associate Professor of Economics Maurizio Montone found that “large net disapproval over the U.S. president’s job is followed by low stock returns.”
Grocery Prices
Claim: Up 3.5% under Trump and up 25% under Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic both understates total grocery price increases under Trump and slightly overstates total grocery price increases under Biden.
To measure increases in grocery prices, we once again turn to the BLS, evaluating changes in the CPI for food at home. Aggregating over each president’s entire tenure, the indexed price of groceries increased by 6.5% in total under the Trump administration and 20.9% in total under the Biden administration. The inflation rate has slowed in recent months, with grocery prices increasing by only 1.1% over the last year.
Electricity Prices
Claim: No change under Trump, up 21.43% under Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic overstates electricity price increases under Biden relative to Trump by using different methodologies to measure price changes.
We used the BLS index of electricity prices for all urban consumers to evaluate this statistic. In total, electricity prices increased by 4% under the Trump administration, compared with 28.3% thus far under the Biden administration.
Similar to total inflation, it appears this graphic misleadingly attempted to compare average year-over-year price changes under Trump to total price changes under Biden. The BLS index shows that the annual year-over-year inflation rate for electricity costs was 1% under the Trump administration. By comparison, the average annual inflation rate for electricity costs was 8.6% under the Biden administration through January 2024. Over the last six months, electricity prices have increased by an additional 1.6%.
As we’ve written previously, economists told us that utility costs are primarily dictated by global markets for “feeder fuels” such as natural gas and coal, and are not controlled by the president.
Real Average Hourly Earnings
Claim: Increased 7.1% under Trump and decreased 3.5% under Biden.
Our analysis: The graphic overstates decreases in real average hourly earnings under Biden by citing outdated information.
Using BLS data for nominal average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation using the CPI for all items, we calculated real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings under both presidents. We found that real average hourly earnings have decreased by 1.9% in total thus far under the Biden administration, meaning inflation has outpaced wage gains for the average worker since the beginning of 2021. The 3.5% decrease reported by the graphic appears to cite outdated information evaluating changes in real hourly wages between January 2021 and February 2023. Under Trump’s presidency, real average hourly wages increased by 6.8% in total.
Just as with inflation, we’ve identified in a previous article that multiple factors outside of the president’s control affect measurements of real average hourly wages. In particular, the rapid exit and subsequent reentry of low-wage workers from the labor force during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly distorted measurements of average wages, leading some economists to argue that 2021 is an unreliable starting point for evaluating changes in real wages under Biden.
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