Tag: United Kingdom

The government’s plan to build HS2 between London and Birmingham will be “very poor value for money” after the northern leg to Manchester was scrapped, according to a report from parliament’s spending watchdog.

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which scrutinises government spending, found there are “many uncertainties” in the assessment that it was better to complete Phase 1 of the high speed rail project than cancel the whole thing.

The report stated: “HS2 now offers very poor value for money to the taxpayer, and [the Department for Transport (DfT)] and HS2 Ltd do not yet know what it expects the final benefits of the programme to be.”

Prime minister Rishi Sunak announced the cancellation of the northern leg of the line to Manchester in October, at Conservative Party conference, promising to divert £36 billion into alternative transport schemes known as Network North.

The cross-party committee said many ramifications of the decision remained unknown, with the cancellation of the northern leg of HS2 raising “urgent unanswered questions”.

It said the government does not yet understand how the £67bn high-speed railway will now function

The report added: “Crucially, [DfT] does not yet understand how HS2 will operate as a functioning railway following recent changes.”

Sunak also announced that the final few miles of HS2 into London Euston and the station redevelopment would have to be built with private investment — a solution the committee said they were “highly sceptical” of. 

‘Knee-jerk’ decision to scrap HS2 second leg ‘a mistake’, government’s infrastructure adviser says

The MPs also warned that there were “urgent decisions the department must make” on Euston or it would incur much greater costs from stopping and restarting work.

Meg Hillier, chair of the committee, said: “The decision to cancel HS2’s Northern leg was a watershed moment that raises urgent and unanswered questions, laid out in our report. What happens now to the Phase 2 land, some of which has been compulsorily purchased? 

“Can we seriously be actively working towards a situation where our high-speed trains are forced to run slower than existing ones when they hit older track? Most importantly, how can the Government now ensure that HS2 deliver the best possible value for the taxpayer?

“HS2 is the biggest ticket item by value on the Government’s books for infrastructure projects. As such, it was crying out for a steady hand at the tiller from the start. But, here we are after over a decade of our warnings on HS2’s management and spiralling costs – locked into the costly completion of a curtailed rump of a project with many unanswered questions and risks still attached to delivery of even this curtailed project.”.

A spokesman for HS2 Ltd said: “We’ve been clear about our cost challenges, which have been compounded by significant levels of inflation. HS2 Ltd is now under new leadership and implementing changes across the programme aimed at controlling costs and learning the lessons of the past.”

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On the surface, Labour’s £28 billion green pledge appears to be the soft underbelly of Starmerism. Even when it was announced in 2021, with the Labour Party traversing the narrowest of pathways on fiscal policy, eyebrows were raised by this notably noncomformist borrowing commitment. 

Of course, the policy as announced a couple of years ago at Labour Party conference is already dead. Newly accounting for Conservative criticism (and recent interest rate hikes), Rachel Reeves toured the media studios in June 2023 to inform the public that the party would now “ramp up” to £28 billion a year after 2027, i.e. in the second half of a Labour term. 

It is arguably a result of the failure of Reeves’ rearguard action, here, that SW1 still speculates as to the future of the so-called Green Prosperity Plan (GPP). Indeed, it is no secret that senior Labour figures want the headline £28 billion figure more comprehensively ditched — if the incessant hum of anonymous media briefings is anything to go by, at least. 

But slowly these divisions have burst into the public realm — with matters likely brought to a head by the internal Labour deadline of 8 February for a draft manifesto. 

Compare and contrast the approaches of shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and leader Keir Starmer, for instance. Reeves, the self-styled “iron chancellor”, refuses to let the words “twenty”, “eight” or “billion” leave her lips — even when the topic is broached by Sky News’ Beth Rigby a full ten times. 

Starmer, however, takes little prompting. Speaking to Times Radio in an interview released today, the Labour leader said of the 28 billion, which he wilfully referenced: “That investment is desperately needed for [Labour’s climate] mission”.

“Of course, what we’ve said as we’ve got closer to the operationalisation of this is that’ll have to be ramped up, the money will have to be ramped up, the 28 billion, etc. And everything is, of course, subject to our fiscal rules”, he added.

This genuine public divide between Reeves and Starmer, once an indomitable duopoly, is underpinned by reports of private splits on the £28 billion that encompass a series of other senior Labour figures. For example, shadow energy secretary Ed Miliband, the man credited/blamed (delete as appropriate) for putting the policy on the agenda, is cited as its chief supporter. But Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary; Pat McFadden, the shadow Cabinet Office minister; Morgan McSweeney, Labour’s campaign chief; and shadow Treasury minister, Spencer Livermore are all reported to be privately lobbying Starmer to do away with the proposal. 

Such splits notwithstanding, there is an argument to say that the incessant chatter surrounding the £28 billion pledge is actually far more revealing of the Conservative Party’s electoral strategy than a Starmer administration’s future industrial strategy.

Indeed, it is no secret that the £28 billion features centrally in the Conservative Party’s pre-election messaging on the dangers of a Labour government. Why? Because they calculate that the party’s messaging on a rigid fiscal framework — spearheaded skilfully by shadow chancellor Reeves — is so overbearing that it only takes one slip-up, one nonconformist breach to undermine all the party’s work. 

And so, following the recurrent Conservative relaunches that characterised the final few months of 2023, Rishi Sunak appears to have settled with the “stick with the plan, don’t let Labour ruin it” approach. Featuring in this strategic framework, Labour’s £28 billion green pledge — the apparent epitome of Starmerite peril — is lambasted weekly at prime minister’s questions as Sunak’s default response. 

Last week, the prime minister castigated Labour’s planned “£28 billion green spending spree” funded by “£28 billion of tax rises”; the week before that, again unprompted, he said Starmer’s “£28 billion tax grab will take Britain back to square one”; and, in the week before that — (in response to the opening question from an SNP MP) — Sunak said the government’s progress would be “reversed by the Labour party’s plan to saddle [families] with £28 billion of tax rises”.

In the 1992 general election, the then-Conservative prime minister informed wavering voters that Labour’s tax bombshell would cost £1,250 per person to great effect. The £28 billion pledge, if retained all the way up to an election, could see a similarly arbitrary per-person figure conjured up by CCHQ schemers. That, in essence, is why the Labour’s strategy team, headed by McFadden and McSweeney, fret over the figure. 

As such, there is a strong prima facie case for ditching the £28 billion tagline: the move would deprive Conservative strategists of their favourite attack line and force them, potentially, to once more reframe their strategy.  

But would this hypothetical scenario — apparently guiding the GPP’s sceptics — really come to pass? If Starmer dropped any references to the headline “£28 billion” figure would the increasingly determined Conservatives, who have stumbled across something resembling message discipline, down their pitchforks and rework their electoral strategy entire? That, it would seem, is seriously unlikely. 

In fact, what seems rather more possible in this eventuality is that the Conservatives would ratchet up their attacks on Labour’s green energy proposals more broadly — sensing weakness and taking aim at other elements of Starmer’s electoral offering. 

The £28 billion, simply put, is already baked into the Conservative Party’s plans, any forthcoming climate climbdown from Starmer notwithstanding. They will continue to quote the figure — which, remember, has featured in Labour’s policy programme for over two years — as they locate some other target, such as the party’s plan to achieve clean power by 2030. 

Furthermore, one clear consequence of a U-turn on the “£28 billion” figure would be that it further exposes Starmer to attacks that he is tetchy and brittle, unable to withstand criticism — even when it emanates from a party 20 points behind him in the polls.

In this way, research from focus groups and polling repeatedly suggests that Starmer is most exposed — not as fiscal rules-confounding, eco-zealot — but as a leader, frankly, who stands for very little. Sir Keir has repeatedly demonstrated his commitment to fiscal prudency with strategically sound U-turns on tuition fees and the two-child benefit cap. Indeed, such barnacle-scraping is nothing less than Starmer’s best trick as he, at once, emphasises the Conservatives’ emptying of Conservative coffers and signals Labour’s loyalty to a ruthless fiscal regime. 

On the GPP, however, the Labour leader risks not just scraping off the barnacles — but hollowing out the ship beneath.

Simply put, ditching the £28 billion proposal could land the Labour Party in the worst of all worlds: the Conservatives would continue to attack Starmer’s clean energy commitments while lampooning him as a meandering leader, who stands for little regardless. After all, the only Conservative attack line that features higher than “Keir Starmer’s plan is dangerous” is “Keir Starmer doesn’t have a plan”. 

Electorally, as well, losing the £28 billion pledge could bolster the view that Labour, helmed by a cautious leader, won’t bring change. It is a fact that could contribute to a gruelling campaign, characterised by a lack of enthusiasm, which would see Starmer miss out on the manifest electoral windfall due to an opposition party in a “change election”. 

With the £28 billion pledge speculation, it would seem that “Starmerism” has arrived at a crossroads moment. Ultimately, a Labour U-turn on the £28 billion would likely spell more contortions to come as the party, (1), continues to respond to increasingly ruthless Conservative attacks with policy changes; and, (2), pursues the natural logic of its climate climate down and checks its ambition in other areas. 

But if Starmer holds firm on the £28 billion and ceases any overbearing concessions to Conservative criticism, it would signal a newfound intent — ending the humming din of media briefings and allowing the party, simply, to move on. 

In the end, Sir Keir appears to have resolved to keep the £28 billion — if his recent Times Radio interview is anything to go by. But can he convince the rest of his party to do the same?

Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Twitter here.

Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website, providing comprehensive coverage of UK politics. Subscribe to our daily newsletter here.

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Kwasi Kwarteng, the former chancellor, has announced that he will leave parliament at the next general election.

Kwarteng, who represents the Spelthorne seat in Surrey, said he had told his constituency association yesterday that he would not stand at the next contest.

In a post to X (formerly Twitter) today, he said: “Yesterday I informed my Association Chair of my decision not to stand at the next General Election. It has been an honour to serve the residents of Spelthorne since 2010, and I shall continue to do so for the remainder of my time in parliament”.

Kwarteng was elected MP for Spelthorne in Surrey in 2010. At the last election he had a majority of 18,393.

Kwarteng served for 38 days as chancellor of the Exchequer between September and October 2022.

Yesterday I informed my Association Chair of my decision not to stand at the next General Election. It has been an honour to serve the residents of Spelthorne since 2010, and I shall continue to do so for the remainder of my time in Parliament.

— Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) February 6, 2024

Following turmoil on the financial markets in the light of his mini-budget, Kwarteng was sacked by Liz Truss. He thus became the second shortest ever serving UK Chancellor.

Kwarteng was previously regarded as a long standing ally of Liz Truss. Prior to the pair moving to their respective houses in Downing Street, Truss and Kwarteng also lived on the same street in south London.

Kwarteng previously sat in the cabinet as the secretary of state for business, energy and industrial strategy between 2021 and 2022. In this role, he became the UK’s first black Conservative cabinet minister.

PopCon: Liz Truss to launch group ‘demonstrating’ the popularity of right-wing policies

He was previously minister of state for business, energy and clean growth between 2019 and 2021, and under secretary of state for Exiting the European Union between 2018 and 2019.

In 2012, Kwarteng co-authored the book Britannia Unchained with others in the Conservative Party including Liz Truss, Priti Patel and Dominic Raab.

He supported Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election.

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A string of senior MPs will attend the launch of the new Liz Truss-backed “Popular Conservatism” (PopCon) group today. 

The Popular Conservatives are the latest in a long line of Conservative backbench caucuses which aim to push the party to the right until and beyond the next general election.

Former prime minister Liz Truss, ex-cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees Mogg and erstwhile deputy chair of the Conservative party Lee Anderson are all expected to be in attendance and make speeches. 

Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader, is also reported to be one of hundreds of guests planning to attend the conference in London. 

Speaking recently to The Sunday Telegraph, the arch-Brexiteer said he was “very interested” in the event, which he is attending in his capacity as a GB News presenter.

Mark Littlewood, the right-wing political figure who is spearheading the movement behind the scenes, has said “PopCon” will seek to promote a brand of Conservative politics focussed on “freedom”.

Writing in the Telegraph this week, Littlewood, who was formerly general director of libertarian think tank Institute for Economic Affairs, said: “It’s time to give people their freedom back – that was what Brexit was supposed to be about: taking back control”.

He added: “Conservatives want power transferred to families, communities, businesses and individuals, instead – but the institutional infrastructure that has grown up in the past two or three decades mitigates against that. …

“This is why I am launching a new grassroots movement of Popular Conservatism this week, alongside senior Conservative MPs and some newly selected candidates. PopCon’s mission is twofold: first, to inform and educate candidates and MPs about the need to reform Britain’s bureaucratic structures to allow Conservatives values to flourish. And second, to advance these policies across the country, whilst demonstrating their popularity”.

The piece also called on the prime minister to scrap the Equalities Act, pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights to crackdown on small boat migrant numbers and cut taxes.

However, ahead of “PopCon’s” launch today, a prominent Liz Truss ally has publicly dropped out of the event, calling on his colleagues to “stick to the plan” under Rishi Sunak.

Ranil Jayawardena, the former environment secretary, was scheduled to speak alongside the former prime minister in Central London on Tuesday.

Writing on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday evening, Jayawardena said: “We’ve made progress, and we need to stick with the plan – to scrap the bureaucracy that’s held Britain back. Labour would take us back to square one.

“I won’t be there tomorrow. I’ll keep making the positive case for growth from the common ground of British politics.”

He is the latest MP to drop out of the event after former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, who called on the prime minister to resign last month. 

Liz Truss’s latest group joins a crowded field of Conservative groups and factions, with the most prominent right-wing backbench caucuses — namely, the European Research Group, the Northern Research Group, the Common Sense Group, the New Conservatives and the Conservative Growth Group — said to make up the “five families” of party cliques. 

Week-in-Review: The political inanity of Rishi Sunak vs the ‘five families’

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After a difficult first few months as prime minister, Rishi Sunak undertook in January last year to define his time in Downing Street on the clearest possible terms with “five pledges”.

He called on the doubting public to “trust” him as he rolled out five shiny new pre-election pledges: place your faith in me and inflation would “halve”, he said, the economy would “grow”, debt would “fall”, NHS waiting lists would “shorten” and the small boats would “stop”

Ask the PM what he’s up to on a day-to-day basis, and he responds that his government is focussed on delivering his core missions. Ask the PM to expound his inner-most ideals, he returns to his New Year’s resolutions. Were you to ask Sunak for his choice of lunch, he’d explain how his chosen snack was boosting the local economy. Presumably, when he turns in for the night in No 10, the PM counts small boat crossings, not sheep. 

In this way, last year, Sunak explained how his five pledges would “deliver peace of mind — five foundations, on which to build a better future for our children and grandchildren.”

Sunak has since insisted he is “straining every sinew” to make it happen. So, prime minister, how is it going?

(Page last updated on 5 February 2024).

PRIORITY ONE: Halving inflation

January 2023 speech: “We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.”

REALITY:  ACHIEVED 

The UK’s consumer prices index (CPI) dropped to 4.6 per cent in October, down from 6.7 per cent in September, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

CPI was 10.7 per cent when Sunak vowed to half inflation in January — meaning the prime minister had to reduce the rate of price rises to 5.3 per cent.

In a statement released on the morning the ONS released the statistics, prime minister Rishi Sunak said: “In January I made halving inflation this year my top priority. I did that because it is, without a doubt, the best way to ease the cost of living and give families financial security.

“Today, we have delivered on that pledge.”

He argued that “hard decisions and fiscal discipline” from his government had contributed to the fall in inflation.

RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT DID THE PM ACTUALLY DO TO HALVE INFLATION?

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt outlined in the Spring Budget: “This government remains steadfast in its support for the independent Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England as it takes action to return inflation to the 2 per cent target”.

The government has also ruled out any tax cuts this year — foregoing a spike in demand which could drive up inflation. Similarly, the prime minister has consistently insisted that he will not offer “inflationary” pay rises to public sector workers — again, in a bid to damp down demand in the economy.

But the prime minister has been criticised for not being clear enough on the positive actions he took to halve inflation, as opposed to merely foregoing policies (tax cuts, pay rises etc).

He has also been criticised, not least of all by Nadine Dorries, for taking credit for inflation falling when monetary policy, the foremost instrument of which is interest rate controls, fall within the remit of the Bank of England.

Is chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s insistence that the government “supports” the decision-making of the Bank of England evidence of an active administration? Inflation was forecast to fall throughout 2023, largely driven by falling wholesale gas and oil prices, rather than concerted ministerial intervention.

PRIORITY TWO: Growing the economy. 

January 2023 speech: “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunities right across the country.”

REALITY: The UK economy returned to growth in November, according to official figures that are being closely watched amid fears the prospect of recession remains on a knife edge.

The Office for National Statistics reported an early estimate for output growth of 0.3 per cent for the month.

It comes after Britain’s economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.3 per cent in October.

The Office for National Statistics said that gross domestic product (GDP) fell on the month, after growth of 0.2% in September, with contractions across all main sectors of the economy. City economists had forecast zero growth.

What may be important to note here, is that the ONS has revised its previous figures on economic growth. It has said the UK’s GDP grew by 8.7 per cent in 2021 — considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6 per cent. 

It means that at the end of 2021 — rather than being 1.2 per cent smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported — the UK economy was actually 0.6 per cent bigger. The prime minister and the chancellor have argued the figures show the broader growth picture of the UK is far better than many of the government’s critics suggest.

CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?

ONS revision notwithstanding, the big picture story of the UK’s sluggish growth rates has been one of the key talking points for politicians in recent months. It was, for example, a major preoccupation of Sunak’s short-lived predecessor Liz Truss.

So far, the UK has managed to avoid recession in 2023, with only two of the six recorded months previous seeing negative economic growth.

It comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in November that the economy would contract by 1.4 per cent in 2023, while unemployment could also rise by more than 500,000.

It has also been noted that this priority’s success is in tension with the first on halving inflation. The Bank of England has raised interest rates fourteen consecutive times to 5.25 per cent and the government has ruled out tax cuts and spending.

This is one factor which indicates that Sunak is not out of the woods on the economy yet, even despite the ONS figures.

The Bank of England currently predicts that the UK economy will continue to grow, albeit weekly over the coming period.

Of course, for the pledge to be met on technical grounds Sunak only needs growth of 0.1 per cent, which many economists would describe as stagnation.

RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO GROW THE ECONOMY?

At the end of January 2023, Jeremy Hunt outlined his new vision for long-term growth in the UK economy. His strategy is shaped around four pillars, all beginning with the letter “E”: enterprise, education, employment and everywhere.

Both Sunak and Hunt have also affirmed that technology is a strong focus in their growth plans, promising an increase in public funding in R&D of £20 billion. 

Hunt finished his speech in January by saying, “Being a technology entrepreneur changed my life. Being a technology superpower can change our country’s destiny”.

At the start of September, the government announced the UK is rejoining the EU Horizon project.

Horizon is a collaboration involving Europe’s leading research institutes and technology companies which sees EU member states contribute funds that are then allocated to individuals or organisations on merit.

Announcing the move, Sunak said: “Innovation has long been the foundation for prosperity in the UK, from the breakthroughs improving healthcare to the technological advances growing our economy”.

In the autumn statement in November, with a general election looming, the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced £20 billion of tax cuts for workers and businesses targeted at growing the economy.

PRIORITY THREE: Get debt falling

January 2023 speech: “We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.”

REALITY: In June 2023, government debt rose above 100 per cent of GDP for the first time since 1961. 

In addition, in August borrowing rose to £11.6 billion, according to the ONS. This was £3.5 billion more than a year earlier and the fourth highest August borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

Experts had predicted public borrowing would stand at £11.1 billion last month.

However, it still comes in below the £13 billion that had been forecast by the government’s finance watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, back in March.

Borrowing for the financial year to date has now reached £69.6bn, according to the ONS.

Furthermore, we have no idea when Sunak intends to hit his debt target — that is except for the fact that the government’s fiscal rules mean it must be forecast to fall by the end of a five-year period. 

In the Spring Budget, the government claimed to be on track because the OBR, which checks the health of the economy, forecast that debt as a proportion of GDP would fall in 2027-28.

CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?

When governments talk about debt falling, they likely mean as a proportion of GDP. And a report from the ONS published in August outlined that “stronger than forecast GDP improves debt picture”.

But the report was not wholly positive, adding: “Inflation continues to put upward pressure on spending, with increases in July’s interest costs, central government consumption, and uprated benefit payments.”

Ultimately, if Sunak does not achieve his second priority of growing the economy, then cutting debt becomes even harder.

RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO CUT THE DEBT?

To help meet this goal, Hunt has ruled out the tax cuts and pledged to uprate tobacco duty and bring forward a range of measures to tackle promoters of tax avoidance schemes in the Spring Budget.

PRIORITY FOUR: Cut NHS waiting lists

January 2023 speech: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.”

REALITY:

In an interview with TalkTV‘s Piers Morgan, Rishi Sunak admitted he has failed to deliver on his pledge to cut NHS waiting lists.

Conceding he had not met his target, the prime minister insisted industrial action in the health sector “has had an impact” on delivering the commitment.

Asked whether he had failed on the pledge, Sunak replied: “Yes, we have.”

The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England fell for the second month in a row in November, according to official figures.

An estimated 7.61 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of November, relating to 6.39 million patients, down from 7.71 million treatments and 6.44 million patients at the end of October, NHS England said.

The NHS waiting list in October decreased for the first time in a year,with a backlog of 7.71 treatments recorded, new figures show.

The backlog previously reduced from a record 7.77 million treatments in September. Before this, the last time there was a month on month improvement was November 2022 when the backlog decreased to 7.19 million from 7.21 in October 2022.

Victoria Atkins, the health and social care secretary, said the latest NHS waiting list statistics showed what progress can be made when the health service is not disrupted by strike action.

She said: “November was the first month without industrial action for over a year and we reduced the total waiting list by more than 95,000– the biggest decrease since December 2010, outside of the pandemic.

“This shows the progress our fantastic NHS staff can make towards bringing waiting lists down when they don’t have to contend with industrial action.

“We want to put an end to damaging strikes once and for all, and if the BMA Junior Doctors Committee can demonstrate they have reasonable expectations, I will still sit down with them.”

CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?

Until the last two sets of figures were published, waiting list numbers had been steadily growing since Sunak made his January speech, having already swelled during the pandemic when non-urgent treatment was delayed. 

The government and NHS England have set the ambition of eliminating all waits of more than 18 months by April this year, excluding exceptionally complex cases or patients who choose to wait longer.

RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO CUT NHS WAITING LISTS?

In his five priorities speech, Sunak said: “We all share the same objective when it comes to the NHS: to continue providing high quality, responsive healthcare for generations to come. And that’s what we are going to deliver.”

Since then, Sunak has announced an extra £2.4 billion over the next five years to pay for an “NHS workforce plan”, which aims to fill more than 100,000 vacancies. Spending like this will help bring down waiting lists, but it will take time to have an effect.

PRIORITY FIVE: Stopping the ‘small boats’

January 2023 speech: “We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.”

REALITY: At the end of August 2023, 20,101 people crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2023. 

While this is lower than the figure for the end of August 2022, which had seen 25,065 crossings in small boats, the prime minister has since appeared to backtrack on this pledge, clarifying his January commitment by saying: “One of my five priorities is to stop the boats.” 

He added: “I want it to be done as soon as possible, but I also want to be honest with people that it is a complex problem… I wouldn’t be being straight with people if I said that was possible.”

As Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, pointed out during an interview with the PM in April, Sunak’s crossings commitment is hardly vague. “You pledged to ‘stop the boats, not reduce the number, not bring the number down — actually to stopping them”.

CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?

From the trend in the data, it seems the prime minister is on track to see lower levels of crossings this year, but only marginally. In this light, actually “stopping” all small boats crossings before the next election seems ambitious indeed. 

Moreover, there are concerns about how many crossings there will be in future months, with the figure for June 2023 the highest for any June on record and July’s figure barely changing from last year.

Critics also argue a dip in the number of crossings this year is due to poorer weather, which has deterred many potential migrants.

And, as of December 2022, the Home Office asylum application backlog has surpassed 136,000, growth of 60 per cent compared to a year before. Rishi Sunak has pledged to clear the so-called “legacy backlog” by the end of 2023

RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO STOP THE BOATS?

The prime minister hopes that the Illegal Migration Act, which received Royal Assent on 20^th July 2023, will help deter crossings, giving the government the power to set migration partnerships, meaning asylum seekers who enter the UK irregularly can be sent to another country the government deems “safe”.

The act has been met with fierce criticism. In a joint statement, the UN human rights chief Volker Turk and the UN refugees head Filippo Grandi said: “This new legislation significantly erodes the legal framework that has protected so many, exposing refugees to grave risks in breach of international law”.

The government said last month that each flight to Rwanda, the government’s flagship international deportations plan, would cost £169,000, making the system cheaper only if it brought about a drastic fall in the number of asylum seekers arriving. 

In November, the Supreme Court’s five judges unanimously backed the judgement delivered by the Court of Appeal which declared the Rwanda policy unlawful because of the risk that asylum seekers sent to Rwanda would be returned to their own country and face persecution in breach of their human rights.

Responding to the Supreme Court’s ruling, Rishi Sunak said: “We have seen today’s judgment and will now consider next steps.

“This was not the outcome we wanted, but we have spent the last few months planning for all eventualities and we remain completely committed to stopping the boats”.

The prime minister has signalled a dual-pronged approach following his Supreme Court snubbing. In a press conference on the day of the ruling, Sunak revealed his government would pursue a revised treaty with Rwanda to replace the current Memorandum of Understanding and address the concerns identified by the Supreme Court.

And, on top of this, the government now plans to pass emergency legislation to decree to the courts that Rwanda is “safe” for all relevant purposes.

As things stand, the prime minister has yet to lay out the details of his emergency primary legislation. But the act of declaring Rwanda “safe” — any further attempts to override legislation through a “notwithstanding clause”, notwithstanding — would be hotly contested among parliamentarians, first in the commons and, second and more significantly, in the House of Lords.

With likely less than a year to an election, we have now entered the final session of parliament — it means the Lords is no longer merely a revising or delaying chamber. Rather, given peers can block legislation for up to a year under the terms of the Parliament Act 1949, a majority in House of Lords now has an effective veto on government legislation. The mere “ping pong” that accosted the Illegal Migration Act, as hostile amendments were summarily presented and disagreed with, would be nothing compared to the parliamentary impasse on any forthcoming Rwanda Is Actually Safe Bill.

And if the legislation does eventually pass, the government would likely face further legal challenges, both on the proposed Treaty and Sunak’s primary legislation.

Then, if Sunak’s Rwanda “Plan B” progresses past this point, there is the outstanding question of whether the legislation and Treaty actually address the concerns the Supreme Court expressed last Wednesday. 

In the end, what seems fundamentally clear is that Sunak’s updated Rwanda approach will continue to be contested — legally, politically and morally — all the way up to a general election. 

Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Twitter here.

Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website, providing comprehensive coverage of UK politics. Subscribe to our daily newsletter here.

With additional reporting from Nick James.

Also read: Starmer mission tracker. What is the Labour leader’s vision for Britain?

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