The Writing on the Wall: U.S. Elections and the Spectre of World War III
The fact that European leaders are now opining that they’re expecting a war with Russia ‘within the next decade’ or so, should be a cause for great concern. It’s now clear that the US election may be a deciding factor in that uncomfortable fait accompli.
Dr. Can Erimtan | 21st Century Wire
The world is once again on the verge of momentous U.S. elections, with either side accusing the other of being an existential threat bent on destroying the American Way: Kamala Harris and the Democrats portray Trump and the Republicans as a fascist cabal keen to destroy the accomplishments of democracy and the latter accusing the former of flooding the country with illegal immigrants as a way of securing electoral advantage and transforming the country into third world nation in the process.
From the Raging Twenties – Into the Troubled Thirties
And the world is watching . . . All the while, the ongoing war in the Ukraine and the Israeli rape of Palestine also manage to keep people’s minds occupied. The EU, as a political block beholden to Washington, appears in a state of frantic worry and trepidation.
The block’s economic powerhouse Germany seems to lead the way in this respect. The German foreign intelligence (the BND or Bundesnachrichtendienst) chief Bruno Kahl, for instance, recently told Germany’s parliament that the “Russian armed forces are likely to be capable of carrying out an attack against NATO by the end of the decade at the latest . . . [i]n terms of personnel and material.” Even adding that a direct confrontation between Moscow and the U.S.-led military alliance was “becoming an option for Russia.” In fact, Kahl was but echoing Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who told the German daily Der Tagesspiegel already last January that “[w]e hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day . . . so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day.” As such, Pistorius even provided a handy time-line: “[o]ur experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible.”
Other European nations readily repeat this war rhetoric: Sweden’s commander-in-chief General Micael Bydén even called upon his fellow-Swedes to “prepare themselves mentally” for war. Bydén was also supported by his Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin who ominously declared that “war could come to Sweden.” Whereas, Sweden’s Minister for Defence Pål Jonson recently stated in the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita that “Russia poses a threat to Sweden, as it does to the rest of NATO. We cannot rule out a Russian attack on our country.”
Meanwhile, accross the Atlantic, presidential hopeful Trump also used belligerent language earlier this month:
“I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within . . . We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics. And I think they’re the big — and it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by the National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen.”
As, Trump’s top priority, available in his platform known as Agenda 47, is to implement hardline measures at the U.S.-Mexico border by “moving thousands of troops currently stationed overseas” to that border. The text of Agenda 47 makes for interesting reading: “Republicans will secure the Border, deport Illegal Aliens, and reverse the Democrats’ Open Borders Policies that have driven up the cost of Housing, Education, and Healthcare for American families.” And arguably, that is one of the main reasons EU leaders are worried about a possible second Trump presidency, as that would appear to signal a U.S. withdrawal from world affairs – an ‘isolationist America’ — as well as a subsequent premature end to a possible World War III.
In this context, the pan-European news channel Euronews reports in a timely fashion that ‘President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Brussels to present his Victory Plan to EU leaders, urging for increased support for [the] Ukraine amidst ongoing challenges,’ adding that Zelenskyy even ‘claimed that North Korean army officers are already on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory and revealed that intelligence suggests around 10,000 North Korean troops are being trained to join Russian forces’ (17 October 2024). The channel adds Zelenskyy’s ominous yet prescient words: “Here we see the first step to a world war.”
A Know Nothing Party in the 21st Century: Trump as an Instrument of God’s Will
Recently, the former Prime Minister of Slovakia and current president of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, Mikuláš Dzurinda put forward that “compromises that are necessary to end the war [in the Ukraine] and establish a sustainable peace [are desirable]. At the same time, these compromises in no way mean capitulation or resignation to a part of Ukrainian territory.” As a political realist, Dzurinda here appears to contemplate a possible Trump victory and its consequences for the New Cold War’s proxy-threatre in Europe’s far east. For, many Europeans fear that another Trump term would mean nothing but the implementation of an American withdrawal from the global scene (or, at the very least, from the European continent) . . . as if the Republican party under Trump were but a 21st-century version of the Know Nothings of yesteryear:
At its height in the 1850s, the Know Nothing party, originally called the American Party, included more than 100 elected congressmen, eight governors, a controlling share of half-a-dozen state legislatures from Massachusetts to California, and thousands of local politicians. Party members supported deportation of foreign beggars and criminals; a 21-year naturalization period for immigrants; mandatory Bible reading in schools; and the elimination of all Catholics from public office. They wanted to restore their vision of what America should look like with temperance, Protestantism, selfreliance, with American nationality and work ethic enshrined as the nation’s highest values.
The above words describing the Know Nothings, written by Lorraine Boissoneault, do seem to mirror most of the Trump rhetoric as heard in the media over the past months and years. In fact, Trump himself would now like to go to back to the 18th century, as worded by Alison Durkee, Forbes‘ senior news reporter: “[f]ormer President Donald Trump has floated using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport undocumented immigrants if he’s elected, a law giving the president broad powers to detain foreign nationals of countries the U.S. is at war with—which Republicans hope can be deployed against migrants even though no such war has been declared.” Or, in Trump’s inimitable verbal style:
“I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act to target migrant criminal networks. But if they come back into our country, it’s an automatic ten years in jail . . . And if that doesn’t work, it’ll be 20 years. If that doesn’t work, I guess it’s going to be the death penalty.”
The news agency Reuters‘ Helen Coster put it like this: ‘[i]n both the 2016 and 2020 elections, evangelical voters staunchly supported Trump despite claims of adultery and sexual misconduct, which he denied. With Trump now facing dozens of criminal charges as he pursues a second term, some Christian media are bolstering his support by portraying him as an instrument of God’s will who faces persecution by his foes. While the people making these claims are largely outside the mainstream in Christian media, they have amassed significant online followings and their messages reverberate across radio shows, cable TV and streaming platforms that reach millions of Americans every day.’
In a rather paradoxical fashion, a seemingly un-Christian-like figure of Donald Trump (although he successfully courted Christian evangelicals and pro-life supporter from 2016) appears to attract multitudes of Christian nationalists at home. In the 21st-century U.S., this seemingly novel form of nationalist sentiment “draws its roots from ‘Old Testament’ parallels between America and Israel, [that] was commanded to maintain cultural and blood purity, often through war, conquest, and separatism. Unlike civil religion, historical and contemporary appeals to Christian nationalism are often quite explicitly evangelical, and consequently, imply the exclusion of other religious faiths or cultures,” explain Andrew L. Whitehead, Samuel L. Perry, and Joseph O. Baker. Trump thus seems to command the loyalty of numerous Protestants across the U.S., which is probably why he decided to launch his very own Bible recently – the God Bless The USA Bible for the price of $59.99 each:
“Easy-to-read, large print, and slim design, this Bible invites you to explore God’s Word anywhere, any time. This bible has been designed so that it delivers an easy reading experience in the trusted King James Version translation. This large print Bible will be perfect to take to church, a bible study, work, travel, etc.”
A volume, which is but a re-print of ‘the trusted King James (KJV) translation,’ and which includes a ‘Handwritten chorus to “God Bless The USA” by Lee Greenwood,’ ‘The US Constitution,’ ‘The Bill of Rights,’ ‘The Declaration of Independence,’ and ‘The Pledge of Allegiance.’ And as an added bonus, the God Bless The USA Bible includes “the words of Jesus in red.” Arguably, as a way to secure large donations anonymously, a ‘Limited Edition’ of 1,000 copies of the God Bless The USA Bible contain ‘President Donald J. Trump’s Hand-Signed Signature’ at a ‘$1,000.00’ each.
Suffice to say, the issue of Israel and Palestine is a different matter. While Democrats appear more hawkish on Russia, the Republicans are certainly much more hawkish on Iran.
A Second Trump Term: The End of the American Empire?
It is my contention that Europe’s leaders fear the prospect of a second Trump term and a subsequent global order without American guidance and/or leadership in ‘a period of five to eight years.’ On this point, the former MI6 agent Christopher Steele – the notorious ‘Steele dossier author’ – says quite insightfully that he knows “from conversations with people in government and in the intelligence services in Europe that they are petrified of the prospect of Trump coming back to office.” Adding as an afterthought, that “were Trump to lose there’ll be a very big sigh of relief” on this side of the Atlantic. Particularly now, now that the proxy-war in the Ukraine is taking a turn for the worse, as explained by the Bloomberg opinion columnist, Dr Hal Brands:
The war in Ukraine is going badly for the good guys. Ukraine is slowly losing on the eastern front. Its forces are plagued by a dearth of manpower and ammunition. A summer incursion into Russia made headlines but didn’t change the overall trajectory of the fighting. A deep-strike missile campaign into Russia is potentially promising but has been constrained by Western ambivalence. Ukraine’s much-touted “Victory Plan” — which includes a push for North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership — hasn’t gotten much US support.
And Trump has been quite unequivocal in his desire to bring about a swift end to the war in the Ukraine. In this context, the news agency Reuters relates that “Trump’s public comments . . . suggest he could seek to wind down aid for Ukraine if he defeats Vice President Kamala Harris . . . on Nov. 5.” And without further U.S.(and NATO/EU) assistance, Zelenskyy would have to admit defeat, sooner rather than later. This seems to reflect the new slow-moving Washington consensus that the Ukraine project has become much more complicated and is no longer working as many had hoped three years ago.
“Truth, Justice and the American Way”
In contrast to Trump’s election rhetoric, Harris as the continuity candidate – from Obama to Biden, via Trump as the 4-year spanner in the works – would continue to use the Ukraine as an ideological weapon against Russia, as I explained in detail some time ago:
[A]lready in May 1992, then-U.S. President George H. W. Bush (1989-93) extended most-favored-nation trading status to the Ukraine and provided insurance for U.S. businesses to invest in the newly established republic. The U.S. has thus regarded the Ukraine as a potential ‘weapon’ against Russia from its independence on 1 December 1991.
If elected, Kamala Harris would undoubtedly continue to provide “an American hand [to] pull the Ukrainian puppet’s strings.” Now more that ten years ago, the then-State Department’s Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland told a US-Ukraine Foundation Conference that the United States “has supported [the] Ukrainians as they build democratic skills and institutions, as they promote civic participation and good governance, all of which are preconditions for [the] Ukraine to achieve its European aspirations. We’ve invested over $5 billion to assist Ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic Ukraine . . . [s]ince Ukraine’s independence in 1991.” Even though the Cold War is long done and gone (1947-91), the U.S. persists in perpetuating the image of Russia (as personified in Putin himself) as the eternal bogeyman and ultimate enemy of “Truth, Justice and the American Way.” While even Superman has now abandoned fighting for the afore-mentioned trifecta (Action Comics #900, 2011), the White House continues to conduct foreign policy as if the world order were still consisting of a Manichean opposition between Good and Evil, an opposition between a benevolent America and an evil Russia. In addition, taking another huge leap forward, Kamala Harris now also wants to become the POTUS to “legalize adult recreational cannabis on the federal level,” thereby following a global trend that has seen increasing weed legalisation all across – from Uruguay in 2012, over Thailand (2018), South Africa and Canada (2018), to Mexico (2021) and Malta (2021), Luxembourg (2023) and Germany (2024). In this way, Harris apparently aims to influence public opinion domestically and win new voters, as expressed by Cat Power, director of drug markets and legal regulation with Drug Policy Action: “[f]ederal marijuana legalization is a sound policy and supporting it is a smart strategy – not just with Black voters, but with Americans across the board.”
On an international level, though, a Kamala Harris presidency would arguably merely continue the Obama-Biden policy of Ukrainian support to the detriment of Russia. And in this way, she would try her best to keep the American Empire’s ships afloat, and, move towards a direct military confrontation with Russia in a ‘period of five to eight years.’
And now, it is up to the American people to decide whom to trust with their future . . . on 5 November 2024.
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21WIRE special contributor Dr. Can Erimtan is an independent historian and geo-political analyst who used to live in Istanbul. At present, he is in self-imposed exile from Turkey. He has a wide interest in the politics, history and culture of the Balkans, the greater Middle East, and the world beyond. He attended the VUB in Brussels and did his graduate work at the universities of Essex and Oxford. In Oxford, Erimtan was a member of Lady Margaret Hall and he obtained his doctorate in Modern History in 2002. His publications include the revisionist monograph “Ottomans Looking West?” as well as numerous scholarly articles. In Istanbul, Erimtan started publishing in the English language Turkish press, culminating in him becoming the Turkey Editor of the İstanbul Gazette. Subsequently, he commenced writing for RT Op-Edge, NEO, and finally, the 21st Century Wire. You can find him on Twitter at @TheErimtanAngle. Read Can’s archive here.
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