The first YouGov voting intention poll since the general election in July shows how the political sands have shifted over the past six months — and in whose favour.
The answer to that latter point, unsurprisingly for those holed up in No 10, is not Keir Starmer. If a general election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party would win 26 per cent of the vote — down from 34 per cent in July. Just 10 per cent of voters say the government has been successful so far. 60 per cent say it has been unsuccessful.
Older voters are one group that has turned away from Labour in large numbers. 14 per cent of over 65s would now vote Labour — down from 22 per cent around the time of the election. This data, one imagines, reflects the electoral toll exacted by Labour’s winter fuel allowance decision.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s so-far-irresistible insurgency continues. The party features second in the YouGov survey on 25 per cent — almost neck-and-neck with Labour.
But arguably the key takeaway from the poll concerns the trajectory of the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. It is going backwards. The Conservatives currently occupy third place on 22 per cent of the vote — down from 24 per cent of the vote at the general election.
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Badenoch has failed to remedy her party’s toxic brand. While Reform is the least unpopular party, with a net favourability rating of -32, the Tories are down on -45. Labour’s rating stands at -34.
Since July, Starmer’s vote has split in myriad ways; but the Conservative Party has benefitted the least — despite its fierce criticisms, the commons choreography and the traditional voter trading between the two parties.
According to YouGov’s findings, Labour has retained 54 per cent of its vote at the general election; while 7 per cent has gone to the Lib Dems, 6 per cent to the Green Party, 5 per cent to Reform UK and only 4 per cent to the Tories. (23 per cent of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote).
In recent months, the Conservative leader has questioned Reform’s membership numbers as a “kind of fakery” and lent into the arguments advanced by tech billionaire Elon Musk over the historic grooming gangs scandal. Badenoch’s primary issue, therefore, has not been “cut through” — a routine obstacle for an opposition chief — but that voters have not liked what they have seen.
In this regard, YouGov’s data deeply problematises Badenoch’s ostensible strategy in her first three months as Conservative leader: to thwart the Reform threat. The research shows that just 4 per cent of those who voted for Reform UK at the 2024 general election now plan to vote for the Conservatives. At the same time, the Tories have lost 15 per cent of their 2024 voters to Farage’s party. Reform is also hurting the Tories far more than Labour; 5 per cent of 2024 Labour voters said they would now back the re-styled Brexit Party.
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As it stands, Farage is significantly better placed to benefit from the public anger at Labour because of the Conservatives’ brand trauma. Badenoch’s priority, it follows, should be to address her party’s reputational deficiencies. But her forced rows risk exacerbating them. As I have argued before, the Conservative Party needs to rethink its instincts — not trust in them.
Neither Nigel Farage nor Reform is invulnerable. But Badenoch has roundly failed to penetrate the restyled Brexit Party’s defences. Labour’s woes, meanwhile, are mitigated by the Reform-Tory fight for second place.
Stepping back, the YouGov data suggests the Conservatives are on track for a significant routing at the local elections on 1 May, when the party will defend as many as 1,428 council seats. Labour will be defending 368, the Liberal Democrats 290, and the Greens 57.
Then in the longer run, potentially beyond the local elections, Labour’s intensifying focus on Reform risks making Badenoch look relatively irrelevant — with her popping up every so often for a questionable PMQs showing or some random row.
Even at this juncture therefore, we can expect things to get worse for Badenoch before they get better. If they get better.
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