The below content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free and never miss our daily briefing.
Keir Starmer is attending Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, today where he has set out the UK’s new emissions reduction target: by 81 per cent compared with 1990 levels by 2035. The goal betters the previous target of a 68 per cent reduction by 2030, and is in line with the recommendation of the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
But Starmer’s attendance notwithstanding, this year’s Cop is a distinctly underpowered affair with a series of conspicuous absentees. Several prominent world leaders have chosen not to attend, including the lame-duck Joe Biden, French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.
By far the most substantial elephant not in the room, however, is undoubtedly Donald Trump — the US president-elect who has referred to climate change as a “hoax” and vowed to “drill, baby, drill” in office. His soon-to-be administration, inauspicious as it will surely prove for climate progress, looms large over what discussions are taking place among world leaders this Cop.
As far as Starmer is concerned, Cop29 is his second international engagement in as many days, having attended the French Armistice Day service in Paris yesterday alongside Macron. Channeling Churchill, Starmer became the first UK leader to attend France’s national commemoration event since his prime ministerial predecessor in 1944.
Last week, Starmer attended the European Political Community meeting in Budapest, where he unveiled new plans to clamp down on organised immigration crime abroad by signing new agreements with Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo. He also assured Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the UK’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia remains “iron-clad”.
And next week, Starmer will hold face-to-face talks with world leaders at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. According to reports, he will urge Biden to release funds for a $20 billion (£15.5 billion) loan to Ukraine before Trump, who will again dominate discussions, takes office.
Since becoming prime minister in July of this year, Starmer — a former lawyer with no discernible foreign policy experience — has taken to his responsibilities on the world stage with serious, perhaps surprising, enthusiasm. And the prime minister’s diplomatic blitz has escalated in recent weeks, as Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates’ fastidious number-crunching attests.
Since 1 September and the return of parliament from summer recess, Coates records Starmer as having spent, consecutively, one day in Dublin (bilateral), two days in Washington (bilateral), two days in Rome (bilateral), three days in New York (UN Security Council), one day in Brussels (UK-EU bilateral), one day in Berlin (meeting of the “Quad” of nations), five days in Samoa (CHOGM), one day in Budapest (EPC) and, so far this week, one day in Paris (Armistice Day) and one day in Baku (Cop29).
In total, Coates counts 22 days of overseas travel for Starmer across a 77 day period (including the G20 next week). In that same timeframe, he adds, the House of Commons sits for 34 days.
And it is not just Starmer who has embraced the international scene since entering office. After Rachel Reeves told a forum in Washington that she would be adjusting the government’s fiscal rules ahead of the official budget statement, the commons speaker insisted it is unacceptable for ministers “to go around the world telling everybody [about policy] rather than these members [MPs]”.
The incandescent speaker aside, some nascent signals suggest the view that “Starmer always seems to be abroad” is taking hold in the country at large. Luke Tryl, the executive director at More in Common, has indicated that the observation is starting coming up spontaneously in his organisation’s focus groups. Tryl adds: “There may be good reasons for that, but suggests at [the] very least a need to communicate to [the] public why it’s important he’s abroad so much.”
It is, after all, little surprise that gatherings with world leaders — given Starmer’s presence on the world stage is such a novel phenomenon — have real cut-through potential. Still, it’s Labour’s job to ensure it does so to the prime minister’s benefit.
Starmer is a relatively new world leader, and it is therefore incumbent upon No 10 to introduce him to the various movers and shakers that matter in global politics — at a time of such geopolitical fragility no less. There is also a sharper political element too: Starmer has styled his international visits as opportunities for the UK, under new management since July, to rebuild its reputation overseas.
For instance, No 10 noted that Starmer’s visit to Dublin in September made him the “first PM visit to Ireland in 5 years”. The trip, it was added, formed part of Labour’s “drive to reset the UK’s relationships with its key international partners and deliver for hard-working British people.”
The PM’s visit to Rome, mere days later, was again evidence of Starmer “continuing his drive to reset relations with key international partners.”
Starmer has also sought to stress, across his many international trips, that by strengthening global relationships Britain will be better placed to tackle domestic problems. This emphasis reflects Labour’s bid to draw a dividing line between this government and its Conservative predecessor — which was oft-accused of prioritising shallow machismo at the expense of global accord.
In this way, addressing the Interpol general assembly in Glasgow earlier this month, Starmer insisted that Britain will no longer “seek conflict with other countries”.
“We’ve turned the page on all of that”, he added, “because such promises are not worth the paper they’re written on. All they do is waste taxpayer money. Instead, we are approaching this issue with humanity and with profound respect for international law.”
Since the US presidential election, Starmer has redoubled his efforts in the international sphere — evident this week from his quick-fire visits to Paris and Baku to discuss, among other things, Ukraine and climate change. In their meeting on Monday, perhaps pointedly, Macron and Starmer considered “how best to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position going into the winter”, according to a No 10 readout.
All this said, it is clear that the optics of Starmer’s eager statemanship need some management — lest the prime minister is accused of needless global gallivanting or, at best, embracing glossy photo ops with world leaders for their own sake.
But recent evidence suggests No 10 has come to terms with this point, and is beginning to foreground two “priorities” that, it insists, are shaping Starmer’s expansive foreign policy ambitions. Indeed, pressed on whether he is spending too much time overseas on the plane to Baku, Starmer pointed to two “dominant themes”.
“I think the key question for me is what am I spending my time on, wherever I am”, Starmer said. “The two key priorities for me on all of these engagements with our partners is: our economy and economic growth, and border control and border security.”
The economy and border security are, of course, the two issues that won Donald Trump the US election. Kamala Harris’ defeat, one imagines, has reminded Starmer of the risks incumbents face if they seem soft on either issue — a dynamic he once so benefitted from.
At this stage in the electoral cycle, therefore, Starmer has resolved that the best way to make progress on the issues that will define his premiership (and dictate whether he is a one or two term PM) is to devote himself to diplomacy.
In the end then, Starmer does not see himself as heir apparent to the status of “global policeman” (or “world king”) as leaders brace for an isolationist US. Rather, he believes his domestic powers — and Britain’s sovereignty — are heightened by engaging rigorously with international partners.
Labour’s electoral potency, Starmer considers more quietly, will be bolstered in turn.
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Lunchtime briefing
William Hague: Badenoch has better chance of becoming prime minister than I did
Lunchtime soundbite
‘I’m not going to start sending messages to the president-elect.’
— Keir Starmer is asked what his message to Donald Trump is on Ukraine. The PM adds: “But I’m very happy to be very clear about what my own position is because it’s been my position since the very start that we strongly support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.”
Now try this…
‘Assisted dying: caution and compromise may end in dissatisfaction’
Politicians who support a law change in principle may still vote against the bill that currently falls short, The FT’s Stephen Bush writes. (Paywall)
‘Keir Starmer poised to withdraw Sue Gray job offer’
Via The Guardian magazine.
‘Starmer warns against climate “inaction” as Trump looms over COP29’
Politico reports.
On this day in 2021:
Irish minister warns of ‘fragile’ situation in Northern Ireland ahead of UK-EU talks
