Sir John Curtice has highlighted what he sees as the prime minister’s two main “weaknesses” ahead of his keynote speech to Labour Party conference on Tuesday afternoon.
The polling guru argued the PM has “never been very successful at doing what George Bush called the vision thing.”
“What is the Labour Party for, what his government trying to achieve, what kind of Britain does he want… that lack of narrative is being exposed”, Sir John said.
He also suggested that Starmer has “not always had a strong political antenna”, adding “that’s been exposed in the last week or two”.
Sir John insisted that while it’s far too early to rule out a second Labour term after the next general election, “what we’ve seen in the last few weeks is perhaps not surprising.”
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Keir Starmer will deliver his conference address in the shadow of the row over donations accepted by him and a number of cabinet ministers — and against the backdrop of hostile briefings about his chief of staff, Sue Gray.
Earlier this week, Starmer said he would no longer accept donations to pay for clothes, and neither would chancellor Rachel Reeves or deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
The government has also come under fire for projecting an image of “doom and gloom” amid warnings of a “painful” budget, which Reeves will unveil on 30th October.
Seeking to counter the criticism that Labour is talking down the country, Starmer will pledge in his conference speech to “build a Britain that belongs to you.”
The prime minister will reiterate that “country first, party second” is the foundation of his project in government, describing it as “a pact with working people that we must fulfil.”
He will also talk of his desire to unite the country in Labour’s mission of creating “a Britain built to last, built with respect and built with pride.”
Starmer will say: “The politics of national renewal are collective. They involve a shared struggle. A project that says, to everyone, this will be tough in the short-term, but in the long-term — it’s the right thing to do for our country. And we all benefit from that.”
The prime minister will insist that the “short-term pain” of his government’s tough decisions will lead to long-term gain — referencing rising living standards, falling NHS waiting lists and investment in clean energy.
The prime minister will also point to three separate but related “black holes” that threaten to impede the government’s plan to bring change to Britain.
He will say: “It will be hard. That’s not rhetoric, it’s reality. It’s not just that financial black hole, the £22bn of unfunded spending commitments, concealed from our country by the Tories, it’s not just the societal black hole — our decimated public services leaving communities held together by little more than good will — it’s also the political black hole.”
Defending his government’s approach to economic and fiscal policy, Starmer will add: “Just because we all want low taxes and good public services, does not mean that the iron law of properly funding policies can be ignored.
“We have seen the damage that does, and I will not let that happen again. I will not let Tory economic recklessness hold back the working people of this country.”
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