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The Conservative Party is now just four points ahead of Reform UK — that is according to a new YouGov poll released this morning.
The survey, conducted between March 19-20, places Rishi Sunak’s party on 19 per cent of the vote, a level of support last seen during the final days of Liz Truss’ premiership. Reform UK, meanwhile, climbed one point to a new high of 15 per cent. Labour, for what it’s worth, was unchanged on 44 per cent of the vote.
According to YouGov’s full breakdown, Reform is ahead of the Conservative Party in the North (by 18 per cent to 17 per cent); and the restyled Brexit Party is only two points behind the Tories in England (17 per cent to 19 per cent). (As you would expect, Reform’s poor polling in Scotland — where the party has next to no presence — brings down its national figure).
There are some other interesting takeaways here: Reform leads the Conservative Party among men; beats both Labour and the Conservatives among “leave” voters in the 2016 EU referendum; and bests the Conservatives among those in the C2DE social grade (those of a lower social and economic status).
On top of this, in the last few hours, it has been announced that the Conservative candidate for Greater Manchester mayor, Dan Barker, has defected to Reform. Barker, of course, follows in the footsteps of MP Lee Anderson — who himself threw in with the Faragists last week.
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Both of these facts speak to Reform advancing on two key fronts (defections and vote share) — developments that will greatly increase the pressure on the prime minister, whose reception at the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers last night was regarded, in spite of it all, as generally positive.
Today’s Reform news, however, might serve to remind MPs of the brutal reality that their furious table-banging yesterday was intended to drown out.
And what of the government’s flagship illegal immigration scheme, designed to placate and appease those voters who might consider voting Reform? Well, the Rwanda Bill — once sold as “emergency legislation” in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling on the deportation plan — is now due back in the House of Commons on 15 April.
It comes after peers in the House of Lords “pinged” the legislation back to the commons yesterday with seven moderating amendments attached. Full rundown of that particular battle here.
The government’s decision to delay further votes on the legislation, despite the clear opportunity to “pong” the Rwanda Bill back to the Lords pre-recess, also comes after MPs were told at yesterday’s 1922 committee meeting that remaining commons votes will only be held on a one-line whip.
The move means MPs will not feel the wrath of the whips’ office if they decide against attending parliamentary business until the House rises for recess on Tuesday. The thinking here, a cynic might speculate, is that by emptying the parliamentary estate, Sunak can stem the flow of briefings to Westminster journalists and sap some of the energy out of the “plot” against him.
On top of this, there have been hints this morning that the government intends to blame Labour for the Rwanda Bill’s long delay (Labour peers voted en masse to back the amendments last night).
Along these lines, Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt told the commons at business questions: “I do wish to clarify that I have no wish to blame their Lordships for the delay of this Bill. Let me be very clear, I wish to blame Labour Lords for this delay”. Watch Mordaunt’s address in full here.
Have a great rest of your day.
Lunchtime briefing
Rwanda Bill sent back to MPs after peers inflict seven defeats on government
Penny Mordaunt mocks speculation she could succeed Rishi Sunak as prime minister
Lunchtime soundbite
‘I talk to Tony a lot about the period just before ’97, because obviously I’m very interested in talking to people who have won elections and taken a party from opposition into government’
— Labour leader Keir Starmer tells Channel 5 he talks to former PM Tony Blair “a lot” to draw on his experience of preparing for power in 1997.
Now try this
‘Tory Manchester Mayoral Candidate Defects To Reform Party’
PoliticsHome reports.
‘The Gen Z baroness who wants to abolish the House of Lords’
The Times speaks to 27-year-old Carmen Smith of Plaid Cymru, the youngest member of the House of Lords.
‘Ousting Rishi Sunak would make a bad situation worse’
Former cabinet minister and New Statesman columnist David Gauke argues that a fourth prime minister in one parliament would make the Conservatives look self-obsessed.
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