Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrats’ local elections campaign this week by bounding (stumbling) over ankle-high fences in Henley-on-Thames. The message was that in such “Blue Wall” areas, council contests are a “two horse race” between the Liberal Democrats and the beleaguered-looking Conservative Party.
The quippy stunt secured headlines for the Lib Dem leader — alongside a reasonable share of ridicule. That’s par for this particular course. But Davey’s underlying contention, that the Lib Dems can supplant the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”, shone through. (The Lib Dems recently topped a YouGov opinion poll in the south of England after all).
Back in the House of Commons for prime minister’s questions this afternoon, Davey exchanged his equine metaphors for a more familiar hobby-horse: his anti-Donald Trump attacks.
Since November, when Trump swept up the swing states to secure a second non-consecutive presidential term, the Liberal Democrats have moved definitely towards an anti-MAGA position. Davey has ratcheted up his reproval in recent weeks, responding to developments on the Ukraine war and now Trump’s protectionist threats.
According to reports, the White House has drafted a proposal for the US to impose wounding tariffs of about 20 per cent on most imports to the world’s largest economy. Trump is expected to announce as much in a Rose Garden address at around 9pm UK time. Britain, like every other historic US ally, is in the firing line.
Keir Starmer began PMQs today with a statement on the government’s planned response. “A trade war is in nobody’s interest”, the prime minister told MPs, “and the country deserves — and we will take — a calm, pragmatic approach.”
He added: “That’s why constructive talks are progressing to agree a wider economic prosperity deal with the US. That’s why we’re working with all industries and sectors likely to be impacted.
“Our decisions will always be guided by our national interest, and that’s why we have prepared for all eventualities and we will rule nothing out.”
Kemi Badenoch eventually turned to tariffs during the despatch box tussle this afternoon. The former trade secretary accused Starmer of failing to negotiate a trade deal with the US. But it was Davey who delivered the session’s most thoughtful contribution.
The Lib Dem leader began by praising the prime minister’s “commendable leadership” over Ukraine and his attempts to convene a military “coalition of the willing” to police any future peace deal. Davey then co-opted this term, first coined by US academics in the 1970s, to describe the action he believes the government should take in response to Trump’s tariffs.
He contended: “The prime minister has shown commendable leadership over Ukraine with his plan for a military coalition of the willing.
“Will he now provide similar leadership with an ‘economic coalition of the willing’ against Trump’s tariffs, for free trade, so he can avoid a global trade war and a global recession?”
There is a compelling logic to the position: a united response to Trump’s tariffs could galvanise political and business criticism in the United States, potentially forcing the US president’s hand. If the US president proves stubborn, the UK government could invest its efforts in building the economic relationship between those parties similarly affected by Trump’s protectionism. This strategy would, at least, limit the US president’s ability to “divide and rule” by playing economically weakened countries off against each other.
But the prime minister, who opened the session insisting no response would be ruled out, appeared to rule out the response. He commented: “I think that’s the wrong choice on defence, on security intelligence, for reasons that we’ve rehearsed across this chamber. I also think it’s wrong on trade and the economy.
“We have a balanced trade relationship with the US, and I believe that our interests are best served by calmly trying to secure a deal which is in our national interest, whilst at the same time preparing and leaving all options on the table.”
Davey responded: “One of the options must be to work with our European allies, our Commonwealth allies and others. Because if we don’t tackle Trump’s tariffs, we could be saying goodbye to free trade for a generation.”
A Liberal Democrat press release overnight has more detail on the party’s stance. In it, foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller urges Starmer to work “with our Canadian and European allies in a united front against Trump, including retaliatory tariffs where necessary — as well as negotiating a bespoke new customs union agreement with the EU to better protect British businesses.”
In this area, Davey has placed his party broadly in line with British public opinion — never a bad political strategy. YouGov polling this week notes that 71 per cent of Britons would support retaliating with tariffs if the US strikes. Just 11 per cent oppose this position.
Meanwhile, polling for Best for Britain has found 43 per cent of Britons believe that increasing trade with the EU is the best course of action. Just 14 per cent think improving relations with Trump in order to extract a tariff exemption is the right approach.
These surveys reflect a wider trend: Britons do not like the US president.
Davey, leader of the third largest party in the commons, is uniquely placed politically to own the mantle of Britain’s premier anti-Trumper. The Conservatives under Badenoch, who boasts of a friendship with veep JD Vance, have flirted with MAGA opinion in recent time. The Greens, who too treat Trump with contempt, have struggled to cut through this parliament. And Reform operates as MAGA’s UK office — increasingly to its electoral detriment.
But most significantly, Starmer cannot — no matter how much Britain’s collective conscience wills it — turn on Trump like the star in a Richard Curtis flick. An overtly hostile footing would risk pushing Trump deeper into Putin’s sphere of influence.
Nonetheless, there is a balance to be struck — especially with a president so uniquely unpopular in Britain as Trump. And Davey’s implicit charge is that Starmer has proved too accommodating.
No 10 will recognise the political problem. Firstly, Starmer risks coming across as weak if he refuses to adopt the retaliatory footing that the EU, Mark Carney’s Canada and other allies look set to assume. Secondly, by continuing to hold Trump close — and even hosting him at a state visit — the president’s unpopularity risks rubbing off on Starmer.
The prospect of an unprecedented second state visit for this unpopular president has become an albatross around Starmer’s neck.
If Britons rally against Trump, his MAGA ideologues and economic ultimatums, right now it is the Liberal Democrats that are best placed to benefit. The local elections on 1 May could represent the dawn of a broader political windfall.
Starmer, if his “pragmatic” approach fails to yield significant reward, could suffer.
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Lunchtime briefing
Trump tariffs of 20 per cent could ‘knock out’ government’s fiscal headroom, OBR warns
Lunchtime soundbite
‘Labour’s record is a car industry in crisis, even before tariffs. There are 25,000 more jobs now at risk.’
— Kemi Badenoch accuses Keir Starmer of a “failure to negotiate” a trade deal with the US at prime minister’s questions.
Now try this…
‘Starmer offers big US tech firms tax cuts in return for lower Trump tariffs’
Via the Guardian.
‘Government Joins Reddit In Bid To Step Up Its Online Communications Strategy’
PoliticsHome reports.
‘Could time be up for the triple lock?’
Tali Fraser in ConservativeHome.
On this day in 2021:
Keir Starmer’s School Report
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Source: Politics
