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Written by Ayurella Horn-Muller for Grist

Just four West African countries are the foundation of an industry worth more than $100 billion. In the tropical nations of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, rows of cacao trees sprout pods bearing dozens of seeds. Once harvested, these humble beans are dried, roasted, and processed into something beloved worldwide.

Chocolate has been coveted for millennia and, particularly on Valentine’s Day, is an unmistakable token of love. But as increasingly erratic weather continues driving up the costs of confectionery, the sweet treat has become a symbol of something much less romantic: climate change, Grist reports.

Two reports published in February found that warming is pushing temperatures beyond the optimal range for cacao growth in the countries at the heart of the world’s supply, particularly during primary harvest seasons. The research reveals how burning oil, coal, and methane is roasting the planet’s cocoa belt and skyrocketing chocolate prices.

“One of the foods that the world most loves is at risk because of climate change,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at the nonprofit Climate Central, which wrote one of the two reports. “I would hope that by hearing that human activity is making it harder to grow cocoa, it might cause people to stop and think about our priorities as a species, and whether we can and should be prioritizing actions to limit future climate change and future harms to this food that we love so much.” 

About 70 percent of the world’s cacao is grown in West Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria the biggest producers. The bulk of the rest is grown in places with similar climates not far from the equator, such as Indonesia and Ecuador. The trees grow best in rainforest conditions with high humidity, abundant rain, nitrogen-rich soil, and natural wind buffers. Exposure to temperatures higher than 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit prompts water stress, hinders plant growth, and erodes the quality and quantity of seeds the trees yield. 

Last year, warming added at least six weeks’ worth of days above that threshold in nearly two-thirds of cacao-producing areas across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, likely contributing to a disastrous harvest, according to the Climate Central report. 

The researchers examined temperature data for the region and estimates of what might have been experienced over the past decade in a world without human-induced warming. They found that between 2015 and 2024, climate change increased the number of days each country experiences temperature ranges above the ideal for cacao growth by an average of two to four weeks annually. Most of those hotter days came during the main crop cycle, when the plants bloom and produce beans. Warming is also altering rain patterns, accelerating droughts, facilitating the spread of devastating diseases like pod rot, and contributing to soil degradation. Another new study found low rates of pollination and higher-than-average temperatures in Ghana have combined to limit yields. 

But teasing out just how much of an impact climate change has had on production and consumer prices remains largely unchartered by scientists and economists. Dahl also said it’s unknown which weather phenomenon is behind the largest impact on production, nor is it clear what influence El Niño had on last year’s harvests. 

Emmanuel Essah-Mensah, a cocoa grower in Ghana, described climate change as one of the most serious problems affecting production throughout West Africa. “The drought means we are losing 60 percent of our cocoa plants. I have seen a drastic decline in income, as have all the farmers in my farming cooperative,” Essah-Mensah told Grist. 

Droughts, floods, and plant diseases thrashing the region last year contributed to record cocoa prices, which in turn caused the cost of chocolate to jump, according to a report by the nonprofit Christian Aid, which works toward sustainable development and economic justice. Global cocoa production fell by about 14 percent in the 2023-24 season, and ahead of Valentine’s Day last year, the soaring price of cocoa on the futures market shattered a 47-year record.

Kat Kramer, co-author of the report and a climate policy consultant for the nonprofit, said the findings, and those of Climate Central, expose the industry’s vulnerability to climate change. “Chocolate lovers need to push companies and their governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kramer, “otherwise chocolate supplies will tragically be at increasing climate risk.”

The implications of this go beyond what it means for this delectable delicacy. Cocoa also is used in other goods like cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which account for a significant piece of the global market. Yet chocolate remains king, with the U.S. importing around $2.8 billion worth of it every year — over 10 percent of the world’s supply.  

Federal Reserve data suggests that global cocoa prices rose 144 percent in December, more than doubling from the year before, said Alla Semenova, an economist at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. This is known as the producer price, or what global chocolate manufacturers pay those who process the raw beans. Still, that cost is often absorbed by confectionary customers. “When producer prices rise, when the costs of production rise, consumer prices rise,” said Semenova.

Yet even as prices go up, the farmers raising cacao don’t always see any of that profit. Josephine George Francis, who produces the crop alongside coffee on her farm in Liberia, said farmers throughout West Africa actually lose money due to the rising cost of growing crops in a warming world. “We need a different approach that puts sustainability and farmers at its heart,” said George Francis. “We do not benefit from increased prices on world markets.”

Of course, cocoa isn’t the only ingredient in confectioneries threatened by warming. Early last year, sugar, another essential ingredient, sold at some of the highest prices in over a decade after extreme weather constrained global sugarcane production. 

“It is not just the quantity of cocoa production that is affected by the acceleration of climate change,” said Semenova. “The type and the quality of the ingredients that go into the production of chocolate will change.” 

All of this has led many chocolatiers to adapt. Some, like Mars and Hershey, have been quietly reducing the amount of cocoa or even introducing new treats that eliminate it entirely. As prices continue to rise, analysts expect to see demand wane, a trend even Valentine’s Day can’t stop.