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It’s one of the unique ironies of Nigeria’s democracy that the political opposition in the country is investing heavily in the goodwill of an influential member of the ruling party!

Visits to former President Muhammadu Buhari’s residence in Kaduna and Daura by the political opposition has become a regular feature on the news- one that is generously reported with revealing photographs.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai and ex-Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal, all known presidential aspirants and prominent members of opposition parties have been reported to have visited Buhari at least twice in the last eight months.

The most recent was last Friday when they all visited the former president in his Kaduna residence along with former Minister of Communications, Isa Pantami, and former governor of Imo State, Achike Udenwa.

Others in the entourage include former governor of Benue State, Gabriel Suswam; and his Adamawa State counterpart, Jibrilla Bindow.

 El- rufai, who decamped from the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in March, boasted that he got Buhari’s support before his defection.

Atiku has not yet openly admitted seeking Buhari’s support to run for president again in 2027, which would be his fifth attempt if he runs. Instead, he called the visits sallah homage!

But El-rufai, who is not one to hide under a finger, shared a message which showed the intent of the visit on social media. He wrote: “By the way, our adversaries should not lose any sleep. It is not about politics. It is about unity and brotherhood. And since we are all politically irrelevant, we just prayed and enjoyed lunch with our mentor.”

Why The Pilgrimage To Buhari?

Political analysts have however suggested that the regular visits and calls to Buhari is a signal that the north may be rallying forces against the re-election of President Bola Tinubu.

According to Kamilu Sani Fagge, a professor of political science at the Bayero University Kano, Tinubu appears to be drawing a line between his administration and the north as a result of his policies and appointments.

“The on-going economic reforms of the government are affecting the north more and his appointments are seen as nepotistic and tilted against the north,” Prof Fagge said, adding that the opposition will see these developments as favourable for them.

Haba Hakimi, a Kano based public interest lawyer, agrees with Prof Fagge. He told THE WHISTLER in a telephone interview that the north thinks Tinubu is doing what Buhari did by “giving appointment to only Yoruba people.”

Any serious presidential contender, according to Hakimi, must know that the north is where the contest would be decided.

Figures computed by THE WHISTLER on previous elections show that the north delivers the highest number of votes in any general election. For instance, out of a total of 24, 053, 553 votes recorded in the 2023 presidential election, 14, 702, 684 votes came from the 19 northern states while a total of 9, 350, 869 was recorded for the entire southern states.

In terms of turn out during elections, the north also comes top. In the 2023 election, only the North-West and North-Central regions had up to 30 percent voter turnout. They were followed by the North-East with 28.63 percent.

In 2019 election, the North-West and North-East also had the highest voter turnout, which was over 40 percent.

“Yes, the north has always being the political battleground in Nigeria because of the northern block vote. That block vote is really something.  North can be a decider of electoral victory. Even when the south is united, the north can be a factor that decides winner.

“In 2023, Because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC, a lot of Christians in the south voted for Peter Obi, but still he couldn’t make headway in the north because he has not been accepted by the north. So, the north is a decider,” he stressed.

Why Buhari’s Endorsement Matters?

But what can Buhari’s endorsement do for a party or presidential candidate?

“It’s important to some extent; by getting his endorsement, it means by so doing some of his followers will support them. Secondly, it will give a psychological and moral boost for them to be seen to be getting his support because that will rattle the ruling party, APC.

“Even though the cult followership of Buhari has reduced drastically, it will give them a psychological boost and it’s a way of getting his followers,” Prof Fagge said.

Hakimi also agrees, saying Buhari may have lost his mass appeal after a failed presidency, but he still has substantial supporters.

He is however of the opinion that anyone hoping Buhari will change the narrative for them is leaving in a fool’s paradise.

“He’s still a force to reckon with., but I don’t just think Buhari can make anything happen right now. People have tried him and it was unanimously agreed that he failed the people, he didn’t deliver. I don’t think the pilgrimage politicians are making to his house can change the narrative if it is not in their favour already, “said Hakimi.

But Prof Fagge has a warning for politicians and potential aspirants thronging the home of Buhari: “If what Buhari is saying is true that he remains an APC man, I don’t think he will come out to support anyone. But the fact that whether willingly or unwillingly, President Tinubu is drawing a line between himself and the north, perhaps it will not be surprising if Buhari endorses somebody else.”

What Parties Must Do To Win

According to analysts, getting northern votes in 2027 would depend on a number of factors, including the candidates’ records, ability to mobilize the people and a realistic plan to address the challenges facing the people.

According to Prof Fagge, any party that wants to win northern votes must address the major challenges that are currently facing the north, such as insecurity, poverty, unemployment and general socio-economic crisis.

“The party has to go into the nooks and crannies of the north to sell these ideas; but it has to go with a candidate the north believes can deliver.

“The candidate must be able to build a good team because leadership is about team work. If he says he wants to go solo, he may not likely make it. But must be able to build a team that is sellable to the people,” Prof Fagge added.

According to UNICEF, about 10.5 million children are out of school in Nigeria and nearly 70 percent of this figure is in the north.

Hakimi said the north has a huge number of youths, most of who are unemployed. “Anyone seeking their votes must show readiness to tackle the problem, and if it’s the incumbent, he has to show what he has been able to do for them.”

But while Prof Fagge believes that Tinubu must change some of his unfavourable policies to get the support of the north in 2027, Hakimi thinks the APC is the party to beat because of the power of incumbency.

He said, “The ruling party has an opportunity because they’re already in power and has resources, and these resources are meant for the people.

“What they need to do is to utilize these resources prudently and serve the people well.  Then it should reverse some of its policies. For instance, the ruling party is seen as giving appointment to only Yoruba people. So, it is seen as nepotistic just as Buhari did. They have to reverse that.”

Political Visits To Buhari Show North Will Decide Fate Of Tinubu In 2027 is first published on The Whistler Newspaper

Source: The Whistler