Category: Education

Last week we reported on data indicating that international students’ visa applications and grants to study in the UK increased at the end of 2024 and into the first quarter of this year – welcome news given many UK universities’ ongoing financial struggles due to declining foreign enrolments. The recent uptick contrasts with newly released full-year data from the UK’s Home Office detailing the decline in sponsored visas issued to international students in 2024 versus 2023. This data confirms that the so-called dependants ban that went into effect in January 2024 has had a significant impact on student demand for the UK in top markets such as Nigeria, India, and Bangladesh.

Since January 2024, most international students have not been allowed to bring their family with them while they study in the UK. The only exceptions are for students in research-oriented postgraduate programmes and those on government-sponsored scholarships.

Prior to the ban, students in taught master’s programmes had been permitted to bring family with them, which was a key reason these programmes were so popular in emerging markets. That popularity has waned since the launch of the dependants ban. As reported in Times Higher Education, the share of study visas for master’s programmes fell from 66% in 2023 to 61% in 2024. The countries accounting for the most master’s visas are now, in order, India, China, and Pakistan.

As shown in the chart below, there was an 84% decrease in dependant applications for the year ending January 2025.

A 14% drop in sponsored study visas

A total of 393,125 sponsored study visas were issued to main applicants (i.e., students) in 2024, a 14% drop compared with 2023. This percentage drop is very close to the 15% decline we predicted last year in an ICEF Insights article on dependants, which also noted that:

“The largest losses [if partial-year data trends were to hold] would be from non-EU countries, including Nigeria and India … [except that] the impact on Chinese students would be minimal if we go by ‘dependant-to-main-applicant ratio’ trends. That ratio was 1.16 for Nigerian students compared to less than 0.01 for Chinese students.”

Sure enough, visas issued to Nigerian and Indian students declined by -55% and -26%, respectively, in 2024 versus 2023. Issuances for Chinese students, by contrast, fell by only -6%.

The far gentler softening of the Chinese market saw China regain its position as the top international student source country for UK educators, reversing a two-year trend in 2022 and 2023 where India had held that spot. India is now second, with 88,860 visa issuances compared with China’s 102,940 in 2024.

Visas for Indian students fell at both the master’s and undergraduate levels. Nicholas Dillon, Director of Nous Group, commented on LinkedIn about the Indian undergraduate trend: “Interesting to see such a fall in a market for a cohort that’s not directly affected by the dependent visa changes (and interesting that it happened notwithstanding Canada’s clamp-down).” It seems clear that Indian students are considering a much wider range of options for study abroad than in the past.

Nigeria and Pakistan switch spots, and Nepali demand remains strong

The drastic -55% drop-off from Nigeria – paired with a somewhat surprising 13% increase from Pakistan – means that Pakistan is now the UK’s number three student market, with Nigeria bumped to fourth.

Pakistan’s overall surge happened even with an 85% decline in visas issued to Pakistani dependants, highlighting exceptionally strong demand from Pakistan for UK education. The dependant-to-main-applicant ratio for Pakistan had actually been slightly higher than for India before 2024 (0.37 versus 0.31, respectively) – so the dependants ban seems to have been considerably less influential on study abroad decision-making in Pakistan than in India. Visa issuances to Pakistani students increased at both the undergraduate and postgraduate level.

As with Pakistan, demand from Nepal remains strong, with 44% more visa issuances in 2024 than 2023 and growth at both the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Nepal now represents the third largest undergraduate market for the UK and the sixth largest overall.

Other non-EU markets weaken, for various reasons

Some other important student markets for the UK weakened. Within the Top 10, the largest drops in study visa issuances were for Malaysia (-12%), Hong Kong (-15%), Saudi Arabia (-16%), and especially Bangladesh (-31%).

The fall-off from Bangladesh is likely tied to the dependants ban, given a very high dependant-to-main-applicant ratio over the past couple of years (1.01%).

Declines from Malaysia and Hong Kong may have more to do with the rise of alternative destinations in Asia, including Malaysia’s and Hong Kong’s ambitions to become regional education hubs. Universities UK points out that Malaysian demand has been dropping in recent years both for study in the UK and for study in Malaysia via UK transnational education arrangements. At the same time, Malaysia has a goal of attracting 250,000 foreign students by 2025.
 
Hong Kong has also set its sights on recruiting more international students. In 2019/20 there were 12,350 undergraduate international students in Hong Kong universities, and this rose by 20% to 14,760 in 2024. Most of those students are from China, but India is a growing priority. Hong Kong’s eight public universities joined together last year to recruit Indian students, especially those who are strong in STEM.
 
Meanwhile in the Middle East, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are increasing foreign partnerships and branch campuses to attract more foreign students.
 
Top 10 markets for the UK according to study visa issuances, 2024
 
China:102,940
India: 88,860
Pakistan: 35,045
Nigeria: 18,900
US: 15,275
Nepal: 12,235
Bangladesh: 6,400
Malaysia: 5,420
Hong Kong: 5,180
Saudi Arabia: 4,875

For additional background, please see:

International students are facing high rates of visa refusals in top study destinations, which is leading to a host of planning and financial problems for students, institutions, and agencies alike.

In Canada, for example, 52% of study permit applications were refused in 2024, up from 38% in 2023. The overall refusal rate for would-be temporary migrants was 54%.

Syed Hussan, executive director of the Migrant Workers for Change, told the Toronto Star that the Canadian government is making money both from approved and refused temporary resident applications. The average application fee is CDN$150 and in 2024 alone the government “generated an estimated CDN$707.9 million in fees, including CDN$354 million from refused applications” according to Mr Hussan. He considers this “profiting from [applicants’] hopes and dreams” and lays the blame on politics.

But Canada’s immigration ministry, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), told the Star that many refused applications are due to its officials detecting fraud: “IRCC employees receive training on how to detect and combat fraud, and they work hard to protect the integrity of Canada’s citizenship and immigration system.”

Ekaterina Neouimina, a spokesperson and founding member of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association, believes that there is not enough transparency around why an application is refused or approved:

“Misrepresentation can be a catch-all term, easily applied to minor inconsistencies or perceived omissions. The lack of transparency in these investigations is deeply concerning, and there’s a real risk of unfairly penalizing applicants for unintentional errors.”

Caps by stealth?

As in Canada, the political climate and a housing shortage has prompted the Australian government to determine that the number of new international students coming into the country is too high. An official cap is not in place, but many in the industry believe that immigration officials are increasingly using subjective criteria when reviewing international students’ applications. A 2024 article in the Australian Financial Review notes that the approach has been described as “caps by stealth.”

There was a 38% reduction in the number of study visas granted by Australian immigration officials from October 2023 to August 2024, an all-sector average driven by a 67% decrease in the vocational (VET) sector and a 50% reduction in the English-language training sector (ELICOS), according to Studymove data consultants. In addition, there were 25% fewer visas issued to students applying to Australian universities in the latter half of 2024.

Uncertainty adds to the scenario

In addition to actual study visa denials, uncertainty about whether (a) an application will be approved and (b) work/immigration rights will be suddenly restricted has made it more challenging for students considering study in Canada, Australia, and the UK.

The previous UK government under Rishi Sunak had mulled restricting the popular Graduate Route, which gives international students 2–3 years of work rights after completing their studies. In the end, the Route was not changed, but the months where it was a possibility did not make it easy for new students to choose the UK over other destinations.

Meanwhile, in the US, study visa refusals reached a record high in 2023, with 36% of F-1 applications denied. Research shows that the prospect of more restrictive policies under the new Trump administration is causing a significant segment of students to pause before applying to the US. A Keystone Education Group pulse survey in October 2024 found that:

“A noteworthy 42% of prospective students indicated that they are less likely to consider studying in the USA following Trump’s re-election. This indicates a rising sense of hesitation among the global student audience. Perhaps more significantly, 41% remain uncertain.”

Higher refusal rates rippling across the industry

The study abroad agency GrowPro was founded in 2013 in Australia and quickly expanded to operations spanning 17 countries by 2023. The agency’s rise coincided with the swell of international student demand for study in Western destinations such as Australia, Canada, the UK, and New Zealand after the COVID-19 pandemic. But the company abruptly ceased operations in February 2025, with the study plans and prepaid fees of an unknown number of students in the balance.

A report in El Diario de Madrid traces a line from GrowPro’s sudden closure to rising visa rejection rates, explaining that, “[GrowPro’s] financial model was based on spending students’ fees before their visas were approved…By mid-2023, the company had accumulated a 50% visa refusal rate , meaning money from students who were unable to travel was no longer available for reimbursement. This problem triggered a ‘snowball effect’ that destroyed confidence in the company and led to its financial collapse.”

The agency has said that it is attempting to ensure that affected students who had lodged their bookings with GrowPro would be financially remunerated. However, refunds have yet to be delivered to all students.

The ripple effects of processing delays

Along with a general trend toward rising rejection rates in top destinations, visa processing delays have also proven to be a significant barrier for students and other temporary travellers. A recent report in Travel and Tour World, for example, points out that, “The US travel industry is facing a major crisis, as extended visa processing times and increased security vetting under President Trump’s second-term policies threaten to deter millions of international visitors. With wait times stretching up to 700 days for some nations, industry experts warn that the US risks losing billions in tourism revenue—just as the country prepares for an unprecedented decade of global sporting events.”

That projection is backed by a recent Oxford Economics report which found that, unless visa wait times improve, the US stands to lose nearly US$19 billion in tourism spending over the next two years.

For additional background, please see:

The Trump administration’s funding freeze affecting several prominent international education grant programmes in the US continues. Over 10,000 students and professionals participating in international exchanges – some American, some from other countries – have had their funding withdrawn. They have been given no indication of when – or if – funding of their programmes will be reinstated.

The US government paused funding of all programmes under the State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA) on 13 February 2025 for 15 days. Instead of ending the pause as expected on 27 February, it kept the freeze in place. Affected programmes include:

Of the students currently affected, more than 3,500 are abroad. Another 7,400 are international students in the US. Funding has also been paused for students planning to go on exchanges in the next six months.

Many students have been left wondering how they will pay their rent, and some are resorting to food banks for meals.

In addition, the ECA funding normally pays for the international education professionals employed by the scholarship and exchange programmes. Those staff are understandably worried about losing their jobs.

Major international education association band together in protest

This week, international education peak bodies announced a joint campaign aimed at persuading Congress to intervene to stop the funding freeze.

In a statement, NAFSA executive director and CEO Dr. Fanta Aw pointed out that the affected programmes have been authorised and appropriated funds by the US Congress, and articulated what is at stake with the funding pause:

“The freeze on State Department grant programs threatens the survival of study abroad and international exchange programs that are essential to U.S. economic and national security. Halting inbound and outbound exchanges shuts the United States off from a vital flow of ideas, innovation, and global understanding and influence, creating a vacuum that could easily be filled by competing nations. We urge Congress to use its authority to intervene. Restoring this funding immediately is absolutely in the country’s national interest.”

Mark Overmann, executive director of the Alliance for International Exchange, emphasised that the funding freeze is not only hurting international students, but also Americans in exchange programmes:

“Paralyzing ECA-funded exchange programs endangers the health, safety, and future of the more than 12,500 Americans who are either abroad right now or soon will be and damages our relationships with current and future leaders from around the world. The many U.S. organizations that support these programs and its participants are now in a dire financial position, putting thousands of American jobs and livelihoods at risk. Approximately 90 percent of the State Department exchanges budget is spent on Americans or in America. ECA exchange programs absolutely fulfill Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s goal of making ‘America safer, stronger, and more prosperous.’ Suspending them would only have the opposite effect.”

Melissa Torres, president and CEO of the Forum on Education Abroad, said:

“Study abroad programs like the Gilman and Fulbright Scholarships provide opportunities for students who might not otherwise have a global education. The Critical Language Scholarship and IDEAS programs build the language skills of U.S. students and broaden their access to destinations where American engagement is particularly important. These experiences help prepare students for a globally connected workforce. Without federal support, the cultural competency of our domestic population and in turn, U.S. global competitiveness, will take a huge step backward.”

Dire effects on students and staff

Karin Fisher, in a 5 March Latitudes column for the Chronicle of Higher Education, detailed the mood at this week’s Association of International Education Administrators conference in Houston, Texas. Dominant themes were fear and stress. Ms Fisher reports that, “One administrator said his campus was scrambling to find money to pay a Fulbright scholar who was the campus’s sole Chinese-language instructor.”

Another attendee, John Sunnygard, associate provost for global learning and international affairs at Western Kentucky University, expressed his concern for his students who had been awarded Gilman scholarships. The Gilman scholarships are merit-based scholarships that allow students with demonstrated financial need to study or intern abroad. As per Ms Fisher’s reporting, Mr Sunnygard said that many of his Gilman recipients “had already purchased nonrefundable plane tickets and paid program deposits for summertime international study.”

Mr Sunnygard said: “They were promised a scholarship and made a financial commitment. These are kids from rural areas who have never been on a plane. We bought their passports.”

The Chronicle of Higher Education was made privy to a message in which international students were told to leave the US because their funding was “subject to an immediate stop.”

At the conference, Ms Fisher listened to an international graduate student explain that she had received “only a quarter of her regular monthly funding stipend … leaving her unable to pay her rent [and] relying on a food bank.” That student said: “I’ve got zero idea how to pay for my apartment. I’ve got zero idea about what to do with my belongings if I get evicted.”

Outside of the conference, as reported in the Financial Express, Fulbright student Nigora Jabarova posted on LinkedIn that her funding organisation, the Institute of International Education (IIE) had received no warning of the funding freeze. Cut off from funding, she posted:

“With just three months left until my graduation, I now find myself in an extremely difficult position, both professionally and personally. As Fulbright participants, we are not permitted to work outside the program, and the stipend we rely on has been abruptly halted. This has left many of us struggling to cover basic necessities such as rent and food.”

Potential brand damage in major student sending markets

Every year, over 2,000 Indian students receive grants from the Fulbright programme. Vietnam’s VNExpress warns that “Any reduction or delay in funding could limit participation, affecting cultural exchange and academic collaboration between India and the U.S.”

Just last year, former President Biden had made it a priority to forge deeper ties with India through international education.

The British Council has released its Five Trends to Watch report for 2025. The macro trends in focus this year echo some of the important shifts we have been tracking in recent months. They include a shift in student demand to destinations in Asia and the need for greater emphasis on diversifying international enrolment this year.

The report projects an uptick in student interest for the UK this year, arising in part from the continuation of more restrictive policy settings in Australia and Canada but also from the uncertainty a newly installed Trump administration may create for some students considering study in the US.

“Markets in East Asia will continue to benefit from an eastward shift in international student mobility in 2025,” adds the report, projecting that more of the student demand that would have gone to a Big Four destination in previous years will now stay within the region. The British Council notes Malaysia’s growing appeal as a regional destination in particular (and especially for Chinese students). But the report also highlights growing student numbers in a number of Asian host countries, including Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Thailand.

China’s continuing shift to postgraduate studies

Most major study destinations continue to rely heavily on China and India for the lion’s share of their foreign enrolment base. The Five Trends report projects that continuing economic headwinds in China – including historically high levels of youth unemployment – will continue to shape higher education demand this year.

The British Council especially highlights the growing proportion of postgraduate enrolment in China’s domestic higher education system. And we have of course seen the same pattern playing out in major study destinations in recent years in terms of a shift from undergraduate to postgraduate studies for Chinese students.

“Economic woes in China will drive stronger demand for postgraduate education in 2025,” says the report. “Youth unemployment rates in the country remain stubbornly high. This has increased the appeal of postgraduate study both to improve students’ competitiveness in the fierce local job market and to wait out more favourable economic conditions.”

“Chinese students seeking to enrol in postgraduate studies are particularly rankings conscious – both at home and abroad – viewing a degree from a top-ranked foreign university as more likely to secure them a job after graduation…For lower-ranked [HEIs], attracting prospective postgraduate students in China will mean appealing to their core concerns: value and impact. Pairing master’s degrees with internships, for example, and tailoring career services to the needs of Chinese students will go a long way toward distinguishing their postgraduate offerings in an increasingly competitive marketplace.”

Peak India?

The report goes on to project that the number of students from India “will almost surely decline” for major study designations this year. While the fundamentals – including the massive demand for higher education – remain very strong for the Indian market, “the broad-based slowdown in outbound mobility from India is driven in part by a market correction after enrolments from the country surged in 2022 and 2023. Tightening visa restrictions in major host destination countries are also depressing demand from less qualified Indian students.”

The need to build new markets

The overarching conclusion of the report is that educators will now have to extend their recruitment efforts over a larger number of smaller markets (that is, smaller than China and India) in order to make up for enrolment shifts and softer numbers coming out of those two major senders this year.

For additional background, please see:

Amidst more restrictive immigration policies, declining student visa approval rates, wars (e.g., Gaza, Ukraine), the “America First” orientation in the US under Trump, affordability crises, and underfunded higher education sectors, universities in the West are facing unprecedented challenges to their ability to recruit overseas.

The last time Western institutions faced such severe pressures was during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, closed borders and quarantine requirements drastically reduced international student mobility. Now, shifting public opinion in the West concerning immigration levels is at the root of governmental efforts to curb foreign enrolments.

The dynamics of international education have once again become complicated. Both institutions and prospective students are thinking very carefully about which courses of action are prudent in the new context in 2025.

Findings from a September/October 2024 survey conducted by the Nous Group and Navitas among 200 senior operational and strategic leaders primarily employed by universities in Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada illustrate the strain of the current policy and economic environment. For example, over 8 in 10 respondents (82%) said that their internationalisation goals are being increasingly affected by government policy decisions.

At the same time, respondents indicated a continued commitment to international student recruitment: almost 9 in 10 (88%) said that foreign student recruitment is very important (22%) or extremely important (66%) to their overall internationalisation strategy. This is down somewhat from 2022, the first iteration of the Nous/Navitas survey, but still much ahead of international partnerships, transnational education (TNE), and online education, as shown in the following screenshot from the survey report

Summing up the current recruitment context, the Nous/Navitas report calls the operating environment today a “managed era” – in contrast to the “market era” before and directly after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Intense competition expected due to interconnected factors

As shown in the following screenshot, surveyed respondents pointed to a range of challenges they are facing in 2025, including macroeconomic conditions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and geo-political tensions.

Nine in ten (89%) respondents to the survey said it will be “very” or “extremely” competitive in the next couple of years to recruit students to programmes because of these pressures. Expectations of heightened competition are especially high in Canada and the UK, as shown in the following screenshot.

Nous Principal Matt Durnin said:

“Pressure to compete while reducing costs will lead to new approaches to internationalisation going forward. There will be a portion of the sector that reduces its dependence on international, while others will find opportunities within the constraints of this managed era.”

Interest in TNE rises, but barriers are high

Amidst greater barriers to recruiting students to foreign campuses, survey participants indicated increasing interest in transnational education (TNE) including bilateral exchange and academic partnerships, joint degrees, and branch campuses. At the same time, this interest exceeded university executives’ faith that they could currently execute TNE as well as they might like to. Mr Durnin said:

“There is a lot of focus on transnational education; however, the findings show that leaders are uncertain about their ability to execute successfully. It won’t be a quick fix for revenue.”

Transnational education arrangements often take months – or years – to solidify and are subject to a host of regulatory issues. They entail a substantial investment, and they take a long time to generate ROI. Writing in the Koala News in June 2024, veteran international education consultant Tracy Harris made these points about TNE:

“From my experience, untapped potential [in TNE markets] simply doesn’t exist in any kind of volume, and even fewer opportunities can provide the return on investment that make the effort involved in establishing and delivering TNE worthwhile.

Therefore, if the intention of the government is for education and training providers to replace lost revenue from onshore international students, then TNE is not the solution. However, it does provide an opportunity for Australian education and training providers to enhance their brand reputation and recognition internationally.”

Long-term thinking is great, but short-term needs are acute

Given the long timeframe needed for successful TNE partnerships – and the acute revenue challenges many universities have right now – universities are looking for ways to survive the current climate and constraints. Many are facing both increased regulatory pressures/visa processing issues as well as low levels of state funding.

Not surprisingly, the survey findings show a natural focus on revenue generation and cost-cutting where possible. Increasing international student revenue rose as a “very important” priority from 50% in 2022 to 66% in 2024. In contrast, increasing international student volumes moved from 29% “very important” in 2022 to 17% in 2024.

Increased fees, reduced scholarships are common predictions

More than half of those surveyed expect their universities to increase international student tuition fees over the next 12 to 24 months by 4–5%. An expectation of significant fee increases was clearly evident in Canada and Australia. The reverse was true in the UK, as shown in the screenshot below.

Many universities will also be reducing their scholarship offerings. This trend intensifies among the top 100 universities, where 40% of respondents anticipated reducing their scholarship programmes for international students. Only 20% expected to be more generous.

Looking ahead

The current international education landscape is difficult, but as some respondents noted, opportunities remain. “Despite the recent negative policy changes, there is an immense amount of opportunity in our international portfolio.” Another noted: “[Higher] education is a stalwart endeavour, and there will always be a need to offer courses and degree programs to a global audience.”

That said, the shift from the “market era” to the “managed era” may not be short-lived. Navitas Chief Insights Officer, Jon Chew, said:

“Beyond the financial pressures in the immediate term, university leaders must contend with the possibility that the shift from the market era to the managed era will continue to deliver greater levels of government intervention and control, which will in turn have important implications for strategic planning.”

Soon after US President Trump’s election, and while the president was in the midst of signing several executive orders in the first weeks of his new term, IDP Education surveyed just over 1,000 international students to gauge their reaction to the US as a study destination.

The survey was active from 25 January to 12 February 2025. It received responses from students in 43 countries, with the largest sample segments from India, China, and Bangladesh.

More than half (52%) of students surveyed said that their impression of the US had improved since the election, but this average belies significant variation in perceptions. For example, only 27% of Chinese said they felt more positively towards the US than before the election. By contrast, almost two-thirds (64%) of Bangladeshi students and 48% of Indian students were more impressed with the US as a study destination following the 2024 election.

Overall, 26% of the survey sample said that their view of the US had become more negative since President Trump came into power.

What is driving students’ interest in the US?

Many international students remain convinced of the US’s position as an education powerhouse. IDP reports that “the quality of education remains the most significant factor attracting international students to the US, followed closely by the availability of scholarships and financial aid.”

Simon Emmett, chief partner officer at IDP Education, also points out that the US is benefitting from weakened enthusiasm for other top study destinations given their restrictive immigration settings:

“In recent IDP Education research we have seen evidence that the US is benefiting from evolving policy environments in other leading markets like the UK and Australia. As other markets become more unpredictable, international students are more willing to invest in the high quality and reputable education available in the US. Given this, there’s an opportunity for the US international education community to come together and highlight the wealth of opportunities available to students in the market.”

Quality of education aside, the areas in which international students were least likely to consider the US attractive were pathways to permanent residency, post-graduation work visas, and diversity of the student population.

Would the responses be the same today?

From the first day of his presidency to 20 February 2025, President Trump signed 70 executive orders, the most in that timeframe of any president in 40 years. This increased to 128 by 12 March 2025, 10 of which are immigration-related, and one of which concerns a comprehensive review of all visa programmes, including those covering international students. The following screenshot is from CNN, and it breaks down the categories of executive orders up to 12 March 2025.

Since the survey, President Trump’s tariff threats and tariff applications have intensified. So far, Canada, Mexico, and China have borne the brunt of the trade measures, but the president has not ruled out applying tariffs affecting other countries – including India and European countries.

Should the US issue any kind of travel ban for students and visitors, the US study abroad brand would decline quickly, according to survey responses. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they would change their view that the US is welcoming to international students. About a quarter of Chinese and Pakistani students (27% and 23%, respectively) said they would no longer consider studying in the US if a travel ban were imposed.

Just after the IDP survey closed, the Trump administration imposed a funding freeze on major organisations responsible for exchange and scholarship programmes for both international and American students.

For additional background, please see:

Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has revised its requirements so that international students in degree programmes delivered by Canadian colleges will now no longer have to meet a field-of-study requirement to be eligible for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP). That requirement had been put in place in 2024 for Canadian colleges but not universities, and it was part of an effort by the Canadian government to apply heavier scrutiny to the international education sector.

“Graduates of college degree programs will no longer be required to meet the PGWP field of study requirement,” said Canadian Bureau for International Education CEO Larissa Bezo, who was commenting on the rule change on LinkedIn.

Contributing to the field-of-study restriction was research showing that international students have been disproportionately represented in business programmes in Canada, particularly in colleges located in urban centres. By contrast, in the US, more than half of international students across degree levels are enrolled in STEM programmes.

Rupa Banerjee, an associate professor at Toronto Metropolitan University who holds the Canada Research Chair in the economic inclusion of immigrants, told CBC News in 2024: “Students are graduating from programs that are not particularly valuable in the labour market, that are not allowing them to get the jobs that will then allow them to transition and become productive Canadian permanent residents.”

The new wording on the IRCC website clarifies that once again, students graduating from all Canadian bachelor’s and master’s degree programmes – whether from universities or colleges – are eligible for the PGWP if they meet language requirements.

Undue discrimination

While Canadian colleges have tended to enrol about twice the number of international students in business programmes as universities have, the fact is that those colleges are often highly adept at graduating students with niche skills needed by the Canadian economy – whether in business or other sectors.

The reversal of the field-of-study requirement for Canadian colleges goes some way to levelling the playing field for Canadian colleges recruiting students overseas. That said, it may take some time for Canadian colleges to restore their standing in key markets. The uncertainty and disruption inflicted by immigration policies that affected their business far more than that of Canadian universities has been severe.

On 2 October 2024, Canada’s peak body for public colleges, Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan) wrote about the policy bias and overly general understanding of “labour market needs”:

“The reforms single out public colleges to prove their programs align with national labour market needs – determined by Ottawa – in order to be considered an eligible field of study for a post-graduate work permit. New eligibility restrictions also make a false distinction between the quality and relevance of college and university bachelor’s degrees approved by their provinces.

Ottawa’s decision to align programs with national needs creates a fundamental disconnect between the pressing needs of local labour markets and the essential contributions of skilled international graduates from the over 10,000 diploma and bachelor’s degree programs in high demand fields across our network. We believe this disconnect needs to be addressed with urgency.”

Given how popular Canada’s PGWP programme is among international students, Canadian colleges will now be able to go forward on a stronger footing when recruiting foreign degree students.

For additional background, please see:

The 15th annual edition of the QS World University Rankings by Subject was released today. While it still places the US and UK at the top of the global table, there is no mistaking the substantial gains of universities in important Asian study destinations, including Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and South Korea.

The QS subject rankings provide an independent comparative analysis of more than 18,300 academic offerings from more than 1,700 universities in 100 locations around the world. The rankings cover 55 academic disciplines across five broad fields of study: Arts & Humanities, Engineering & Technology, Life Sciences & Medicine, Natural Sciences, and Social Sciences & Management.

The US sits atop the world table with 220 universities included in the rankings for a total of 3,686 entries across all subject areas. Nearly 40 of those were ranked #1 overall for that discipline. This compares to the 104 UK universities in the 2025 ranking, their 1,883 entries, and the 18 UK-taught subjects in the #1 position overall.

In other words, the UK, in second position, registers roughly half of the institutions, entries, and top-ranked positions as the US.

The drop-off from those two top study destinations is quite pronounced in the global table as we see in below.

All about the gains

A look behind those summary figures reveals an interesting pattern. QS provides a side-by-side comparison of how the Big Four study destinations – the UK, UK, Australia, and Canada – are improving in the rankings compared to the most-improved destinations.

The answers are revealed in the following table, which highlights that the most-improved countries this year are all in Asia, where their subject rankings are moving up the table at roughly three to four times the pace of the Big Four entrants. QS explains: “The UK’s rate of improvement lags behind countries and territories such as Hong Kong, China, and Singapore, where over 60% of entries rose in the rankings this year. In contrast, just one in five UK entries improved, while 37% dropped and 35% remained stable. Although this outpaces Canada, where only 15% of entries improved, it falls slightly behind other major study destinations, including the US and Australia.”

“The global landscape is shifting,” adds QS. “Universities in Asian education hubs such as Hong Kong SAR and China (Mainland) are making significant gains, rising rapidly through the rankings and challenging the long-standing dominance of the UK and the US. As competition intensifies, the global race for academic leadership is becoming more dynamic than ever.”

Indeed, that competition is taking shape alongside increasing competition for the world’s best and brightest students. As we have observed throughout the past year, there is a distinct shift in student demand away from the Big Four destinations and in favour of regional destinations in Europe and Asia. Even with challenges associated with restrictive immigration settings, rising visa rejection rates, and visa processing delays, the Big Four destinations retain their lead positions this year. But other destinations and higher education systems are gathering strength. The competition in international student markets will only become more intense as a result.

For additional background, please see:

In tandem with shifting geo-political spheres of power, Africa is becoming a priority student recruitment region for Russia. Japan, too, is focusing more intently on African markets in an effort to invigorate its quickly ageing labour force.

Russia: Easier access and better fees

A new campaign organised by the Russian state universities group, Racus, is promising African students a range of benefits not commonly offered by Western universities. According to University World News, the “Study in Russia” campaign emphasises low tuition fees (US$2,000 to US$4,000 a year) and the availability of English- and French-taught degree programmes offered by the association’s 20 university members.

The campaign is also distinctive in that it promises guaranteed (1) admission to African students, including for medical and engineering programmes and (2) student housing for the length of a programme.

A weakening competitive offer from the West

In contrast to Russia, rejection rates of African students’ visa applications are notoriously high in the West.

US: Research conducted by Shorelight and the Presidents’ Alliance shows that 54% of African students were refused an F-1 visa in 2023, up from 44% in 2015. Shelley Landry, senior director of government affairs at Shorelight, said: “This report makes it abundantly clear that the high rate of visa denials in Africa and the Global South is contributing to a loss of share of international students to global competitors.”

Canada: More than half of African students were denied a study permit in Canada in 2023,
according to an MPOWER report published in June 2024. Strikingly, and as shown in the chart below, less than half of African postgraduate students’ applications were approved in 2023, “in contrast to over 80% approval rates from non-African students.”

UK: Visa approval rates are not excellent for African students in the UK, either. For example, while demand from Kenya is rising quickly, Enroly notes that Kenyans with confirmed offers of acceptance (CAS) on its platform were much less likely to be approved than other students: “Kenya’s refusal rate against CAS issued stood at 6.99%, compared to India (1.88%), Bangladesh: 5.52%, and Pakistan: 4.65%.”

Meanwhile, the dependants’ ban that came into effect in January 2024 has drastically reduced demand from Nigerian students to study in the UK. Nigeria had been a fast-growing market for UK educators before the ban.

“Study in Russia” is a top-level government priority

The Study in Russia campaign dovetails with Russia’s renewed efforts to establish more influence in Africa. In February 2025, for example, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced the launch of the Department for Partnership with Africa in Moscow. Mr Lavrov heralded Russia’s “return” to Africa and explained the reasons that Russia had withdrawn from Africa in the first place. These given reasons were not surprisingly anti-Western in their orientation and included Russia’s “mistaken” belief that it would be embraced by the West after the dissolution of the USSR.

Japan promotes in-demand programmes for African students

Meanwhile, Japan has its own plan: the Study in Japan for Africa programme. Supported by Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and spearheaded by Akita University, the plan aims to recruit African students to Japanese universities to programmes in artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, environmental studies, information technology, and robotics, as reported in University World News.

Japan is working closely with African universities including Kenya-based Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) to promote scholarship opportunities in Japan. JKUAT’s engineering and technology programmes enjoy a good reputation and are seen as “an ideal bridge for African students seeking higher education in Japan.”

Japan will set up regional recruiting offices in Botswana and Kenya in April 2025. Currently, there are less than 2,000 African students in higher education institutions in Japan, but the plan is to increase this to 2,500 by 2028.

In 2022, according to the World Economic Forum, almost half of Japanese firms relied on workers over the age of 70. In 2023, former Prime Minister Kishida told lawmakers in the country that “Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society” as a result of its falling birthrate and elderly population.

What of France?

France remains the top enroller of African students, and most of its top African markets are continuing to grow. The exception is Morocco, which was down -4% in 2023/24 versus the previous academic year. Here is a rundown on African enrolments in France in 2023/24:

• Morocco: 43,350 (-4%)
• Algeria: 34,270 (+7%)
• Senegal: 16,955 (+11%)
• Tunisia: 15,255 (+7%)
• Cote d’Ivoire: 11,770 (+10%)
• Cameroon: 10,880 (+11%)

While France has tried to diversify its international student population to rely less on African enrolments, slower growth in 2022/23 from Asia underlined the importance of a continued focus on Africa.

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