The early student research we are seeing so far this year indicates that international students still have a mainly positive view of study in the United States. More than half of respondents to a February 2025 survey by IDP, for example, said that their impression of the US had improved since the presidential election in November 2024. An Interstride survey, also conducted over late-January and early-February, found that only a small percentage of respondents (16%) had any negative perceptions of the United States in the wake of the presidential election.
Looking ahead, the Institute of International Education (IIE) forecasts a modest increase (+3%) in foreign enrolment in the US for fall 2025.
Those early signals suggest that neither the election results nor the new US administration have materially affected the study plans of foreign students as yet. Even so, there are growing indications of a more cautious outlook for later this year and into 2026.
Travel ban 2.0?
A number of major media outlets, including Reuters, are reporting that the US is planning sweeping travel restrictions for citizens from more than 40 countries.
Executive action around this plan is expected in April, but the early reporting indicates that the travel ban plan groups affected countries into three categories. The first grouping – which apparently includes Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen – would be subject to an outright ban on entry to the United States.
A second group would face a partial suspension of entry, including for tourist and student visa classes, for countries such as Eritrea, Haiti, Laos, Myanmar, and Sudan.
According to a leaked memo detailing the plan, the third group includes up to 26 countries – such as Belarus, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan – that could be considered for partial suspension of visa issuance if their governments “do not make efforts to address deficiencies within 60 days”.
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Needless to say, the plan, the timing of its implementation, and the classification of individual countries could all change any time before an official order is issued.
Its impacts, however, could be significant. A seven-country travel ban put in force during the first Trump administration in 2017 led to a -2.2% decline in foreign undergraduate enrolment in the US, and a -5.5% drop in graduate student numbers.
And as we have seen with actual or anticipated policy changes in other major destinations over the past year, even the prospect of any such restrictions on student movement is enough to disrupt student decision making and planning for study in the US.
Cracking down on protest participants
The news of a pending travel ban continues to circulate this month even as US immigration officials have taken steps to detain or deport a small number of foreign students who had participated in pro-Palestinian protests, most notably at Columbia University.
An update from NAFSA explains that, “At Columbia University, federal immigration agents have arrested an international graduate student, revoked the visa of another, and executed search warrants in student dorm rooms, causing what one law professor described as a ‘palpable sense of fear’ on campus.”
Students cautioned not to travel
A number of US universities, including Cornell University, Wesleyan University, and MIT, have already cautioned their international students and staff to limit their travel. Most recently, Brown University has also advised its international students and faculty to avoid travel outside of the US.
In a 16 March campus-wide email, Executive Vice President for Planning and Policy Russell Carey said, “Out of an abundance of caution, we encourage international students, staff, faculty and scholars — including U.S. visa holders and permanent residents (or ‘green card holders’) — to consider postponing or delaying personal travel outside the United States until more information is available from the U.S. Department of State…Potential changes in travel restrictions and travel bans, visa procedures and processing, re-entry requirements, and other travel-related delays may affect travelers’ ability to return to the US as planned.”
The email was triggered in part by “concerning reports affecting our own community of a couple of individuals refused entry upon returning to the United States after international travel and compelled to immediately depart.”
Proposed legislation to ban Chinese students
In a related development, a group of Congressmen have introduced legislation that seeks to block Chinese nationals from studying in the United States, on the basis of national security.
The lead sponsor of the bill, Congressman Riley Moore, said, “Every year we allow nearly 300,000 Chinese nationals to come to the US on student visas. We’ve literally invited the [Chinese Communist Party] to spy on our military, steal our intellectual property, and threaten national security. Just last year, the FBI charged five Chinese nationals here on student visas after they were caught photographing joint US-Taiwan live fire military exercises. This cannot continue…Congress needs to end China’s exploitation of our student visa program. It’s time we turn off the spigot and immediately ban all student visas going to Chinese nationals.”
Funding in question
The US government paused funding of all programmes under the State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA) on 13 February 2025 for an initial period of 15 days.
That funding freeze continues and it is affecting several prominent international education grant programmes in the US. Over 10,000 students and professionals participating in international exchanges – some American, some from other countries – have had their funding withdrawn. They have been given no indication of when – or if – funding of their programmes will be reinstated.
A report from Inside Higher Ed points out that, “The pool of US international applicants has changed significantly since the pandemic. The volume of students from China has decreased while enrolment from countries like Bangladesh, Ghana, and especially India — which rose by 23% last fall — has surged. International enrolment has also shifted from undergraduates to graduate students pursuing not just degrees but long-term research, work and life in the US…[Therefore], recent shifts in international applicant profiles could exacerbate the political blowback on enrolment. The Trump administration froze or eliminated hundreds of millions of dollars in federal research grants for universities this month…For today’s new international students, research and programme funding is ‘the major draw,’ and the grant cuts have left international graduate students wondering if they’ll be able to afford their degrees after all.”
What does this all mean?
Clearly, the funding for some students has already been affected and some students at least will feel less comfortable to travel to and from the United States. Depending on the scale of restrictions under the anticipated travel ban, many more students or prospective students could soon be impacted as well.
But if we have learned anything from the recent introduction of new policy settings in Australia, Canada, or the United Kingdom, it is that while the actual rule changes have an effect on student movement they often also create a high degree of confusion or uncertainty. And that tends to have an even wider impact on student decision making and planning for study abroad. While most students will already be well advanced in their plans for 2025, we might expect a greater impact from all this in 2026 and after.
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