Category: Education

Since the Canadian government’s announcement in January that it would be capping the number of new study permits issued to international students in 2024 and 2025 (with the exception of permits for graduate and K-12 programmes), more news associated with the broad cap has trickled in every week or two. We are committed to keeping readers informed of the developing immigration story in Canada given the large proportion of our readership affected in one way or another by changes in Canadian policies around international education.

Nova Scotia joins the list of provinces announcing their study permit application approach

The Canadian government’s cap on new international study permits for 2024 is playing out variously across the country. This is because each Canadian province has been allocated a different share of the total national volume of study permit applications and because each provincial government then decides how to distribute its allocation across its educational sectors and institutions.

Last week we reported on the very different ways in which the provincial governments of British Columbia (BC) and Ontario distributed their allocated study permit applications. The BC government distributed its allocation relatively evenly while in Ontario, public universities and colleges received 96% of the total, leaving language schools and private universities with a mere 4% and private colleges with 0% of the quota.

Nova Scotia was the next province to announce its handling of its study permit application quota, and as in Ontario, universities were heavily favoured in the distribution.

Nova Scotia received an allocation of 12,900 applications for 2024, which is about 7,000 fewer than the total number of applications submitted in 2023. Of that total, 11,565 (90%) will go to the province’s 10 universities and Nova Scotia Community College. Of the remainder, 710 are reserved “for a dozen private career colleges” and 526 are slotted for nine language schools. Another 99 application spaces are left over “to respond to unexpected circumstances and new programs.”

While universities fared the best overall in Nova Scotia’s disbursement of applications, some universities are facing a more difficult year than others as the province also allocated applications on an institution-by-institution level. CBC News reports that “Cape Breton University (CBU) is facing the biggest hit, a 52 per cent decrease to 5,086 applications … Mount Saint Vincent University (MSVU) will have access to 44 per cent fewer, for a total of 860, and Université Ste-Anne faces a 34 per cent cut to 962.”

David Dingwall, CBU’s president, told CBC News that CBU “is facing a major financial problem unless it is able to convince immigration officials to grant more prospective students the permits they apply for” given that the university’s conversion rate is only 30%:

“If the conversion rate doesn’t go up, it’ll be a big hit. If the conversion rate goes up in our favour, we should be OK. But you can’t take that as a given.”

Further grim news for CBU came in the form of its affiliated language centre, Cape Breton Language Centre, receiving only 84 applications. CBU had asked for 500.

Speaking broadly about the distribution of applications across Nova Scotian institutions, the province’s Advanced Education Minister, Brian Wong, said:

“We’ve worked hard trying to make sure that 12,900 number is allocated fairly amongst the institutions. We also wanted to make sure that schools that were ready for some growth got the opportunity to be able to grow.”

That thinking appears to have driven the decision to substantially increase some universities’ application quota. For example, Halifax’s Dalhousie University has been accorded 1,180 applications (+70% compared with 2023/24). St. Francis Xavier University also received a 19% top-up and Acadia University got a 14% boost.

Mr Wong said that he “hopes” all schools will continue to be successful despite the fact that many may see sharp decreases in their revenues if international student numbers (and tuition) decline. He said it will be crucial for schools to recruit good candidates to increase their conversion rates. Saltwire.com reports that for the 2023/24 academic year, Nova Scotian institutions submitted 19,000 study permit applications, only 40% of which were approved. The national approval average was 60% for that year.

As of this writing, the Nova Scotia government is not planning to provide financial assistance to institutions that may face operational crises if their international student enrolments plummet. But opposition party leader Zach Churchill said that might have to change: “The universities only get their money from government or students so the money is going to have to come from somewhere, and losing international students will certainly have a very serious financial impact on these institutions.”

Recapping provincial allocations and PAL status

While details and methods vary, all Canadian provinces have now distributed their allocation of study permit applications for 2024, and all are now also issuing provincial attestation letters (PALs). This means that study permit processing has now resumed for cap-affected students in all provinces.

IRCC has stated previously that it would allocate roughly 606,000 study permit applications across all provinces and territories, with the goal of granting about 360,000 new study permits to commencing students in 2024 (not including those enrolled in K-12 or master’s/doctoral programmes).

Based on provincial disclosures to date, we understand the following allocations are in place for new study permit applications in 2024.

• British Columbia: 83,000
• Alberta: 41,000
• Ontario: 235,000
• Nova Scotia: 12,900
• New Brunswick: 9,400*
• Prince Edward Island: 3,300*

* Estimated based on media reports

The total study permit applications allocated to the six provinces listed above total just under 385,000, meaning that there are a potential 221,000 study permit allocations remaining under the planned cap of 606,000 for provinces that have not reported as yet: Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

IRCC has yet to confirm the allocations otherwise or if the original national cap of 606,000 study permit applications remains in place for 2024.

Post-Graduation Work Permit eligibility will end sooner for students in college partnership programmes

One of the major changes announced by the federal government in January 2024 was that international students enrolling in programmes delivered through a public-college private partnership (PCPP) would no longer be eligible for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP). The effective date announced for that change had been September 1, 2024, but it has now been moved up.

Canada’s immigration department (IRCC) advises: “International students who begin this type of program on May 15, 2024, or later will not be eligible for a post-graduation work permit when they graduate.” By advancing the date, IRCC has cut off the ability of PCPP-modelled institutions to squeeze in one more recruiting cycle before the elimination of the PGWP eligibility for their students.

However, IRCC notes as well that some graduates of institutions operating under a PCPP model can apply for a different kind of work permit: “For occupations that face a labour shortage in Canada, a graduate could apply for a work permit supported by an employer’s approved labour market impact assessment, for example.” IRCC states that the department “will continue to work with provinces and territories to proactively identify programme that have been affected by the clarification and will update this list as we receive additional information from them.”

For additional background, please see:

By 2022, Canada’s language training sector had recovered to roughly 65% of pre-pandemic enrolments. While complete data for 2023 is not yet available, peak body Languages Canada is signalling another strong year of growth in 2023 and estimates that enrolment for the year will reach 75% of pre-COVID volumes.

Executive Director Gonzalo Peralta says that, while the significant visa processing delays that hampered growth in 2022 have eased, further improvements are needed. “Visa processing times are much better but still not up to our expectations,” he said to ICEF Monitor this week. “We want better for our agencies and students and we will continue to press government on this issue. Of the three categories of visas, eTA (Electronic Travel Authorization) is the one that functions best – it is much faster and at a lower cost. Although it is not reasonable to believe that TRVs (a visitor visa, or Temporary Resident Visa) and study permits could attain the same level of speed and low cost, they can improve. IRCC is undergoing a modernisation drive and Languages Canada will do everything possible to ensure the needs of language students are considered and included in the new system.”

Please consult the links above for detailed guidance from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on each visa class. But to recap quickly: visa-exempt travellers to Canada require an eTA. Short-term visitors – that is, those planning to visit or study for less than six months – from countries that require a visa need to obtain a visitor visa (also known as a TRV) – but not an eTA. And those intending to study for more than six months require a study permit.

Most language students enter Canada with an eTA or TRV. In 2022, for example, the average duration of study was 11.2 weeks.

However, that requirement to obtain a study permit for longer-term language studies also means that those students intending to pursue language programmes of six months or more in Canada are now also captured under the cap on international study permits introduced by IRCC on 22 January 2024. IRCC officials subsequently explained to ICEF Monitor that, “Many students pursuing language training in Canada don’t require a study permit, as their course is shorter than six months, and would not be counted under the cap or require a provincial attestation letter. Those pursuing programmes that last six months or longer would be subject to the cap and the attestation letter requirement.”

Languages Canada has since been advocating for an exemption for longer-term language students similar to the exception granted to K-12 and masters/doctoral students, which are not captured under the cap. Appearing via video call at the recent Languages Canada conference in Vancouver, IRCC Minister Marc Miller said that he was not prepared to entertain further exemptions at this time.

Mr Peralta makes it clear, however, that as far as the sector is concerned the question is not yet settled: “Languages Canada will continue to press for an exemption for students of our Official Languages from the cap imposed on 22 January 2024. Minister Miller did not rule it out, although he is committed to launching the current process as it stands before making changes such as [additional] exemptions. This means that no changes can be expected before the end of the year.”

He adds that, “Languages Canada’s position on the new cap system is simple: we agree with the what, but not the how. Abuse was happening and a correction was needed, including some type of controlling mechanism. But the way government went about it has created a lot of unnecessary thrash. Looking down the line, after things settle, we expect a better situation. The most important step for our members to take at this time is to maximise [return on investment] – every application for a study permit should be given to students with the best chances of obtaining entry to Canada.”

New visa requirements for some Mexican travellers

Most recently, IRCC announced on 29 February 2024 that some Mexican travellers to Caxnada would now require a visitor visa (TRV). The official IRCC release explains that, “Mexican citizens who hold a valid US non-immigrant visa or have held a Canadian visa in the past 10 years and are travelling by air on a Mexican passport will be able to apply for an electronic travel authorization (eTA). With the high number of Mexican citizens currently holding US visas, the majority will continue to enjoy visa-free travel to Canada. Those who do not meet these conditions will need to apply for a Canadian visitor visa.”

The change arises because of “an increase in asylum claims made by Mexican citizens” visiting in Canada, but it carries with it important implications for Canada’s language training sector. With year-over-year growth of 14% in 2023, Mexico was the #2 sending market for Canada’s language schools last year.

“We are disappointed but understand the reimposition of visa requirements for Mexican travellers to Canada,” says Mr Peralta. “Our country is generous but the number of asylum seekers, including from Mexico, has increased too quickly for our resources to handle. Mexican citizens with access to eTAs still have ease of entry, of course, and we will keep an eye on visa processing times for TRVs and study permits. The change in visa requirements requires that our members and partners in Mexico change tactics, improve coordination, and perhaps most important, be more selective in student selection.”

For additional background, please see:

International students will now find it more expensive to study at many national universities in Japan. International students previously paid the same tuition as domestic students, but the government has decided that universities can charge them up to 20% more than the average tuition of 535,800 yen (US$3,500). There 86 national universities in Japan.

The basis for the increase is that it is more costly to host international students than domestic students given that foreign students often need more supports, such as Japanese-language training, help with writing essays in Japanese, and accommodation assistance.

The government does not expect tuition hikes to impact international student demand, since even a 20% tuition increase will not see Japan join the ranks of most expensive places to study. Tuition fees in Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US are much higher.

An official at a national university commented: “To demonstrate that tuition hikes are necessary, we plan to improve facilities for foreign students.” And a senior education ministry official said, “The merits for foreign students will be significant, so we don’t expect tuition hikes to discourage overseas applicants.”

The Japanese government has set a goal of 400,000 international students by 2033, up 30% from 2019 levels. As of 2022, there were 231,150 international students in Japan according to the Japan Student Services Organization (JASSO), the lowest enrolment for Japan in years. In 2019, enrolment stood at 312,214. Japan was among the countries that kept borders shut for the longest during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The vast majority of international students in Japan come from elsewhere in Asia, with China, Vietnam, Nepal, Korea, and Indonesia the five largest senders, representing 80% of total foreign enrolment in 2022. China remains by far the largest student market for Japanese educators with nearly 104,000 students last year, 45% of total international enrolment.

Language barrier poses a challenge in reaching target

Industry insiders note that increasing language supports and expanding English-language instruction could be key to Japan reaching its 400,000 international student target. QS notes that:

“The majority of undergraduate programs in Japan are provided in Japanese, so it is slim pickings for those who do not know the language. While there is currently fewer than 100 undergraduate courses offered in English, there are plans to double that number to attract more foreign students.”

Another conundrum is that if international students opt for English-language instruction, it becomes more difficult to stay and work in Japan after graduating. Professor Akiyoshi Yonezawa, Vice-Director, International Strategy Office at Tohoku University told QS:

“We need to transform this structure into a more internationally competitive, acceptable structure. If you choose [the] English medium instruction, it is very difficult to get a job in a Japanese company- that is a dilemma.”

Language issues may also be hampering the Japanese government’s goal of employing 60% of international students by 2033. In 2018, only 48% were employed, according to Japan Student Services Organisation (JASSO). Japan has a rapidly aging population and encouraging more international students to study and work in Japan is thus an important strategy for invigorating the labour force.

The push is on to keep Chinese students

China is by far the top sending country for Japanese universities and two-year colleges, especially at the graduate and postgraduate levels, where 6 in 10 students are Chinese. However, the number of Chinese students dipped to 85,760 in 2022 from 95,000 in 2020.

Chinese graduates have also been a key source of talented labour for Japan’s workforce and scientific industries, but many Chinese are now choosing to return home after their studies. University World News reports: “Justice Ministry data on applications for work visas in 2022 showed an increase of 9% for Chinese students, to 850 individuals, compared to the previous year. But in the same period the number for Vietnamese shot up by 22% or 1,500 individuals.”

Vietnamese students are increasingly drawn to Japan. A recent study from Acumen found that Japan and Korea now outpace the US, Australia, and Canada in terms of their popularity among Vietnamese families.

For additional background, please see:

We need not look far this year for examples of how national governments in major student destinations are moving to limit international student numbers. This is true in Australia, Canada, the UK, Netherlands, and others, and those new policy settings are taking hold even as many other destinations seek to further grow their foreign enrolments.

There is a contradiction there, and one that is hard to understand, except that international student movement is subject to political influence and, as the public mood shifts with respect to immigration levels, governments may feel compelled to adopt more restrictive policies.

But lurking behind that ebb and flow of political tides is another contradiction: most study destinations are motivated to build international enrolment, at least in part, to help address skills gaps and shortages in their domestic labour markets. In other words, most destinations are not only competing for international students; they are engaged in a global competition for talent.

The Danish twist

Denmark offers an example of a destination that recently moved to limit inbound student numbers, and is now quickly walking that decision back.

It was only in 2021 that the Danish government decided to dramatically reduce the number of university places available in English-taught programmes. The thinking at the time was that the move would reduce costs and make higher education more accessible for Danish students.

Under pressure from employers and industry groups, such as the Danish Chamber of Commerce, the government signalled a sharp U-turn on that policy a few months ago with Education Minister Christina Egelund saying in October 2023 that, “We should be grateful when foreign young people want to study in Denmark.”

In early 2023, the government agreed that 1,100 new places could be opened for foreign students in English-medium programmes each year from 2024 through 2028, and a further 2,500 places per year from 2029 onward. Minister Egelund feels there should be more still.

“We are seeing a new era,” she said in an interview with Danish newspaper Berlingske. “When I sat down to examine the numbers [concerning demographic trends, and shrinking cohorts of young people], it was a wake-up call.”

“We are not ruling out the opening up of the higher education sector [for foreign students] in another way compared to what we are doing today,” the minister added. “We are now at a point where we should be thankful every time a younger person from another place in the world looks towards Denmark. Our need is huge, and the competition for the qualified young and qualified workforce is hard.”

The minister’s comments come on the heels of forecasts indicating that Danish economy may need another 130,000 workers to address shortfalls across a variety of fields and economic sectors. A recent report from University World News indicates that Denmark’s strategy for international education will emphasise domestic labour market needs going forward, and that actual enrolment targets are still a matter of negotiation among political parties and other stakeholders.

For additional background, please see:

A new study suggests there is a strong link between global GDP growth and outbound student mobility levels, and that this correlation will lead to slower total outbound mobility growth through 2030 compared to the previous two decades.

The study report, The outlook for international student mobility: amidst a changing global macroeconomic landscape, was conducted by Oxford Economics and commissioned by the British Council. The study analysed 30 sending markets.

The GDP growth–outbound student mobility association is a new indicator, but analysts say that when applied to previous years, it lines up with UNESCO mobility data from the past – and therefore is a solid indicator of upcoming trends.

They illustrate the strength of the association with this example:

“Although global outbound student volumes have never declined on a year-on-year basis since UNESCO records began, significant slowdowns in growth were seen in 2003/04 and 2011/12. Both these periods of sharp slowdown occurred 1–2 years after significant global economic slowdowns (Dotcom Crash and Global Financial Crisis), suggesting a lagged passthrough from economic shocks to outbound student volumes.”

And at the country level, they note:

“Countries which have recorded the strongest growth in outbound student numbers [in the 1998-2020 period] have had amongst the fastest growing economies (e.g. China, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh), with slower growing economies like Japan, Hong Kong (SAR), Spain and Canada amongst the slower growing outbound student markets.”

Weaker “but still robust” growth ahead

In the two decades leading up to the COVID-19, global outbound student mobility increased at an average annual rate of about 5.5% per year. The Oxford Economics study predicts that this rate will slow to 4.2% up to 2030.

Slower growth does not mean zero growth, however; there is still great potential for students to choose to study abroad over the next few years and the British Council describes the next phase of mobility as “modestly weaker but still robust.” However, the slower growth means “student recruitment will depend on a more strategic approach to targeting of markets and allocation of resources.”

Macroeconomic volatility dampens growth potential

At the country level, the principal drivers of student mobility are economic growth, household income, and stable exchange rates. The impact of that last driver has been particularly notable in Nepal, Nigeria, and Vietnam. Exchange rate volatility in those countries has led to uneven outbound mobility trends in the past and highlights just how much uncertainty is created when a country’s currency declines, as was the case this past year in Nigeria.

British Council researchers write that economic growth and household income are medium-term predictors of outbound mobility, while changes in exchange rates have a more immediate impact.

To predict outbound student mobility, the Oxford Economics analysts considered the growth potential and macroeconomic risk profile of individual sending countries, as shown in the chart below. (The report notes that the size of the bubble represents the number of outbound students in 2020 or latest available year).

Only Brazil and Pakistan are expected to have a mobility growth rate higher than what it has historically been, though Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam are also expected to remain growth markets at a global level.

Mobility rates will decline in the key markets of China, India, Nigeria, and Indonesia. In particular, the growth rate from China will slow dramatically:

“The annual average rate of growth [in China] is expected to more than halve from around 18 per cent per year in the decade prior to the pandemic, to around 8 per cent per year in the 2019-30 period.”

That said, China and India will continue to the top sending countries through this decade, and in absolute terms, mobility from these countries continues to rise. China and India are relatively low risk compared with emerging markets, and their macroeconomic conditions are “supportive of growth in outbound student mobility.”

The mobility growth rate will decline in advanced economies such as Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong (SAR), Ireland, Italy, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain – but the British Council emphasises the value of these markets in terms of stability and diversity in an overall student population.

Intense competition is expected in Brazil, Ghana, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey – because of a complicated mixture of demand for study abroad and macroeconomic pressures making it difficult for some families to send their children abroad. The British Council notes: “They will remain important recruitment markets for the UK to 2030, though primarily by winning market share from alternative study destinations.”

Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam are considered “rising stars” thanks to their “favourable macro environments and low/moderate risk profiles.”

Kuwait, Malaysia, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, UAE, and the US also offer important recruitment opportunities because of low/moderate market risk levels – but the analysis found they have less potential for growth. The British Council says the opportunity in these countries lies in their ability to contribute to “a balanced portfolio of student recruitment markets,” and notes that “several of these countries offer generous government funded scholarship programmes.”

For additional background please see:

Results from a new survey that went out online to more than 1,000 Turks between the ages of 16 and 35 reveals that 88% would consider studying abroad – despite significant barriers related to the inflation rate in their country and their currency’s weakness: Euronews.com reported earlier in March that the Turkish currency “has lost 40% of its value against the dollar in the past year, and 82.6% in the last five years.”
 
The respondents surveyed by a2 International Education Fairs were from all over Türkiye and had completed a various amount of education, from high school through university.

Students see study abroad as helpful for a good career, but financial issues are a barrier

The main motivation for those considering study abroad is paving the way to a good career (67%), followed by personal improvement (64%), and meeting people from different cultures (58%).

For those who aren’t considering study abroad, the main reason is a “budget problem.” Türkiye’s economy has been in turmoil for some time now and this has dampened outbound student flows from the country. The Turkish Statistical Institute announced that the annual inflation rate reached 67% in February, higher than what had been forecast.

Language proficiency is a worry

The biggest concern in general among students is around language proficiency issues; English proficiency is quite low in Türkiye – the EF Index rates Turkey the 33rd lowest of 34 European countries.

Many students are looking at months rather than weeks abroad

Of students looking at language education abroad, the largest proportion (28%) is interested in studying for 48 weeks or more, followed by 24–48 weeks (21%), 12–24 weeks (15%), and 6–12 weeks (21%). Less than 15% are interested in a shorter time away for language study.

Quality of education trumps all, but work opportunities are high on the list of priorities

The priorities for study abroad are quality of education (77%) and post-study work opportunities (62%). Students find the most important factors influencing their decision to be affordability (73%) and the ability to work while studying (65% “very effective”). Also influential is location (51.5% “very effective”) and the ease of getting a visa (46%).

Students see themselves as key researchers and decisionmakers

When deciding which country to study in and which institution(s) to apply to, students are most likely to use overseas education companies (35%), followed by social media (31%) and fairs centred on study abroad. They are also most likely to rely on an overseas education company/consultancy when navigating the process of getting ready to study abroad. But Turkish students are also very likely to trust their own research – and 88% said they are the key individuals deciding where and what they will study abroad, versus less than 10% who said their parents are the ultimate decision-makers.

Most students apply within 15 months of beginning their research: 15% applied within 5 months, 17% applied between 6–10 months, and 19% applied between 11-15 months.

Many aspire to study in the UK

The most preferred destinations are currently the UK (62%), Germany (54%), US (51%), Canada (44.5%), and Italy (41%). That the UK was selected more often than the other destinations is interesting given that it is less affordable than many destinations and enrols fewer Turkish students than Germany or the US.

For more information on the context within which Turkish students are making study abroad decisions, please see our recent market snapshot on Türkiye.

For additional background, please see:

• Get first-hand market insights and connect with agents from Türkiye and throughout the region at ICEF Eurasia

The Irish English-language sector continues to expand, with business in 2023 once again surpassing performance before the pandemic, according to Marketing English in Ireland (MEI), the leading association of English-language schools in the country which represents 65 institutions.

The positive trend is driving jobs in the sector, with 11.4% more staff employed in various roles than in 2022.

Student numbers and weeks post double-digit growth

Student numbers were up by 23% and weeks increased by 20% in 2023 compared with 2022. A total of 128,300 students were enrolled in MEI last year versus 104,265 in 2022. About 70% (89,200) of those students were from the EU/EEA, with the remainder from non-EU countries.

Student weeks jumped to 899,220 and about three-quarters of those weeks were accounted for by non-EU students on visas (e.g., Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and China) as well as non-EU students who do not require visas (e.g., Brazil, Mexico, South Korea).

Those numbers compare to the 118,320 students enrolled, and 770,760 weeks delivered, in 2019.

Lorcan O’Connor Lloyd, CEO of Marketing English in Ireland (MEI), commented:

“MEI is delighted to see such impressive growth in Ireland’s English Language Education sector, surpassing pre-pandemic figures and welcoming students from around the world. The increase in student numbers, across all programmes and a diverse network of source markets, demonstrates the sector’s resilience and appeal. We are committed to providing exceptional education experiences and look forward to continuing to contribute to the growth and success of Ireland’s international education sector.”

Non-EU students tend to stay for longer than European students (not least because their countries are farther away and flights more expensive), with an average of 16 weeks for students from visa-required markets and 17.3 for students from countries where visas are not required.

An increasingly important segment of the market is the “mini-stay” niche – aka “Stage” programmes – which are short-term closed group programmes that often offer learners exciting cultural, recreational, and social opportunities as well as English-language learning. These groups usually consist of students aged 12–16 who come to Ireland off-season. The number of learners in Stage programmes surged from 23,625 in 2022 to 39,845 in 2023 – a 69% increase.

Overall, the number of junior students in Junior, Stage or High School programmes jumped from 51,660 to 65,890, despite a slight decrease in the number of 12–17 years old staying one or two weeks. About 97% of the Junior, Stage, High School business is contributed by EU/EEA students.

The Adult sector now enrols over 62,000 students, about 10,000 more than in 2022, and the growth is being driven both by EU and non-EU students. About 4 in 10 adult learners come from within the EU/EEA region, 43% come from countries outside the EU/EEA where no visa is required, and 16% come from non-EU countries where a visa is required. The average stay for adult learners is 11.9 weeks. By far the most popular course is General English.

Top markets

The top markets in the EU/EEA for Irish English-language schools are:

• Italy (which together with Spain, accounts for 73% of all students from Europe)
• Spain
• France
• Austria
• Germany

The top markets in the non-EU/EEA segment where visa is not required are:

• Brazil (53% of all students in this segment)
• Mexico
• Japan
• Chile
• Argentina

And the top markets in the non-EU/EEA segment where a visa is required are:

• Turkey (32% of all students in this segment)
• Mongolia
• Bolivia
• China
• Ukraine

Significant increases in business came from East Asia, especially from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Malaysia, and Mongolia. Mongolia accounted for 38,935 student weeks all on its own – up from 29,950 in 2022.

For additional background, please see:

New Zealand’s international education sector welcomed significantly more students in 2023 than in 2022, according to data released by Education New Zealand and announced last week by Penny Simmonds, Minister for Tertiary Education and Skills, Penny Simmonds. There were 43% more international students in New Zealand in the first eight months of 2023 than students counted in all of 2022. Full-year data for 2023 will be announced soon.

English-language training sector posts big gains

In total, 59,305 students were enrolled across all sectors from January-August 2023, about half of whom were attending university (27,535, up 15% on 2022). The second largest subsector was schools, up 114% to 12,660, followed by the English-language training sector, which posted massive growth of 347% for a total of 7,000 students.

The strengthening performance of the ELT sector is a positive indicator of future trends for universities and other tertiary-level educators, as many ELT graduates go on to enrol in higher education having achieved a stronger command of the English language.

Numbers were also up by 32% to 6,560 for Te Pūkenga, a centralised establishment specialising in skills and technology training that is in the process of being “disestablished.” It will be replaced with eight to 10 institutions with their own autonomy in the next several months with an aim of better serving the needs of local communities.

Private Training Establishments (PTEs) recorded growth of 13% to 5,670.

Recovery still underway but the trend is positive

Overall, numbers are still down significantly from 2019 when the total foreign enrolment in the country was 115,705, but the trajectory is positive and New Zealand educators are aiming to base their recovery on recruiting from a more diverse mix of student source markets.

Minister Simmonds said:

“Over 59,000 enrolments, in just eight months, confirms that international students continue to find New Zealand an attractive education destination. And for the university sector with 27,535 students enrolled, where a proportion of learners may study for a number of years, there is a solid base of students from which to grow. It is a Government priority to diversify our recruitment efforts for international students with the aim of reaching a broader spectrum of countries.”

Currently, China contributes 36% of enrolments, followed by India (10%), Japan (10%), South Korea (5%), and Thailand (4%).

New Zealand’s position strengthens amid weakening demand for Australia, Canada, and UK

The recovery of New Zealand’s international education sector may be bolstered by policy changes in leading competitor countries Australia, Canada, and UK. New policies in those countries are already causing many international students to reassess their study plans. Nearly half of 2,500 prospective students in 67 countries surveyed by IDP in January 2024 are reconsidering or unsure of their plans to study in the UK, and significant proportions are also hesitating to go to Australia (47%) and Canada (43%).

For additional background, please see:

On 26 February 2024, the Government of Ontario – Canada’s most-populous province and host to just over half of the country’s foreign students – announced additional funding of CDN$1.3 billion for the province’s public colleges and universities. That new money was meant to help a chronically underfunded public system regain some fiscal ground, and also temper the effect of a continuing freeze on domestic tuition rates.

It turns out, however, that none of that additional spending will be sufficient to offset the financial impact of the cap on study permit applications announced by the Government of Canada on 22 January. Not counting the impact on universities or other segments of the education system, budget documents released in Ontario this week reveal that the cap is projected to reduce revenues to Ontario colleges by more than CDN$3 billion over the 2024/25 and 2025/26 fiscal years.

That troubling financial outlook provides the backdrop for a 27 March announcement, in which the Ontario government released details of how it would implement the cap on study permit applications for 2024 and 2025. And it is fair to say that Ontario’s approach is a marked departure from what we have seen in other Canadian provinces so far.

96% to public colleges and universities

Ontario has been allocated 235,000 study permit applications by Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) – an amount that is roughly proportional with the province’s share of the total Canadian population. The (recent) historical approval rate of 60% would suggest those 235,000 applications would yield something like 141,000 new study permits for cap-affected students in 2024. Keeping in mind that K-12 and master’s/doctoral students are exempt from the cap, this could still represent a considerable decrease from the 363,000 new and renewed study permits issued to students in the province in 2023.

The province has announced that it will allocate 96% of that quota to publicly funded colleges and universities. The remaining 4% will be distributed to language schools, private universities and other institutions. However, career colleges will not receive any of the provincial allocation.

Under this approach:

• 22 of Ontario’s 23 universities will be able to lodge the same number of applications as they did in 2023. Only one, Algoma University, will see a decline from its 2023 application volume.

• 11 of 24 colleges will also maintain applications at 2023 levels. The province says that, “Colleges with public-private college partnerships and Conestoga College will see the largest decline.”

The government adds that applications will be allocated to individual colleges and universities based on the following criteria:

• With priority for programmes in high-demand areas, such as skilled trades, health human resources, STEM, hospitality and child care.
• Enrolment in French-language programmes in Ontario will also be prioritised.
• Allocations to individual institutions will not exceed the institution’s 2023 application volumes.
• “As a final backstop, the ratio of international permits cannot exceed 55% (exclusive of high-demand areas) of the institution’s 2023 first-year domestic enrolment.”

“We are protecting the integrity of our province’s postsecondary education system by attracting the best and brightest international students to Ontario to study in areas that are critical to our economy,” said Jill Dunlop, Minister of Colleges and Universities. “We have been working with postsecondary institutions to ensure international students are enrolled in the programmes to support a pipeline of graduates for in-demand jobs.”

The Ontario approach differs sharply from other major host provinces for international students in Canada, most notably British Columbia which split its provincial allocation of study permits roughly equally between public and private institutions.

Early response from stakeholders

“Ontario’s universities acknowledge the provincial government’s decision to maintain international undergraduate student applications at 2023 levels for those postsecondary institutions where international students do not exceed 55% [of first-year domestic enrolment],” said Steve Orsini, president and CEO of the Council of Ontario Universities. “Ontario’s universities have been responsible players in the postsecondary sector, basing international student enrolment on the unique needs and regional labour market demands of local communities.”

Colleges Ontario President Marketa Evans added that, “Ontario’s public colleges are pleased the province is allocating 80% of the international study permit applications to the public colleges. This is clear recognition that public college education is essential to ensuring the province has a workforce equipped with the talent and professional expertise to succeed in key sectors.”

She added, however, that, “We regret more has not been done to plan for and aid in the financial recovery of the public college sector during this abrupt change. The federal government’s cuts to study permit applications were implemented without any consultation or adjustment period. This has already resulted in the collapse of the spring cohort at public colleges, which represents about 25% of total college enrolment…The consequences include immediate programme suspensions and a pause on capital investments that include investments in student housing. There will be a severe impact on the fall term at public colleges, with revenue losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. No organisation can absorb such losses without significant cuts to operations.”

Along with its other Canadian brands, Global University Systems Canada operates a language school, three career colleges, and a private university in Ontario. CEO Cyndi McLeod said, “Yesterday’s announcement by the Ontario Government was in-line with what we expected, but nevertheless, it presents very real challenges for our private colleges as well as the sector as a whole. The fact is, we deliver quality, in-demand programmes for the labour market in Ontario and across Canada. We invest millions into the communities who are home to our institutions, and we deeply believe that we offer a meaningful experience for students.” Looking ahead, she added that, “We’ve created an education ecosystem that’s based on student success and I’m confident that together with our partners we will find new strategic opportunities and initiatives to ensure a bright future for our institutions and the students who choose them.”

And, speaking for the province’s language training sector, Languages Canada Executive Director Gonzalo Peralta made it clear that the province’s current allocation plan is unacceptable to educators in this important education sector.

“We are extremely disappointed with the treatment of language programmes in Canada and Ontario by the federal and Ontario governments. Language programmes were in no way responsible for the unchecked growth in international students in Canada and yet are being penalised more than other segments of education. To receive 2% of the 235,000 allocations in Ontario in spite of being good players in the education ecosystem is a blow to the sector and demonstrates exactly how current government perceives Official Language education and the contribution of private-sector members that for decades have contributed to supporting and advancing the quality of education in Ontario and to the economy. The decision is so short sighted it is flabbergasting.”

“There is no way that Languages Canada or our members will sit still and accept the decision as it stands,” he added. “Everything will be done to obtain an adjustment that affords our members the opportunity to exercise their right to work and to contribute to Canadian society as they have done for decades. Our job at this time is to demonstrate to [Ontario] Premier Ford how language students in pathway programmes to universities and colleges actually improve Ontario’s bottom line and to [IRCC] Minister Miller how this particular segment of students, in learning our Official Languages and way of life, are so much better prepared for their academic pursuits.”

PAL details to follow

The 27 March announcement did not offer much detail on Ontario’s provincial attestation letter (PAL) process, noting only that, “Most international students seeking to study in Ontario must provide a provincial letter of attestation with their study permit application. This letter serves as proof that the applicant has been accounted for within the maximum allocations set by the federal government. To acquire an attestation letter to study in Ontario, students should contact their admissions office at the Ontario postsecondary institution where they have accepted their offer of admission and intend to enrol.”

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