Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen break down the latest developments in Canada’s new cap on foreign enrolment and the latest on visa rejection rates in Australia.
This month’s episode features a panel of founders for three tech-driven startups in our sector: Kasper Baars from the digital student-university matchmaker The Discov; Lydia Jones from room-booking platform Housemates; and Carla Wyburn with English Coach AI – each of whom has a fascinating behind-the-scences story to tell about their respective startup business.
We conclude with a closer look at Sweden as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.
You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.
In recent months, some major study abroad destinations have increased the amount of available, guaranteed funds that international students must have to be eligible for a study visa. Part of the motivation here is to ensure students do not have to take on too much work while studying just to make ends meet. Another is to encourage only students with a genuine interest in pursuing a high-value qualification to apply for a study visa.
The effect of higher proof of funds can serve as a deterrent for a segment of prospective international students. Destinations requiring lower amounts of guaranteed funds are often less expensive for students in general, and as per our recent article on emerging host countries, more affordable destinations are:
increasingly being considered by many international students;
seeing their international student population expand in tandem with leading destinations’ higher costs.
In this article, we take a look at proof of funds requirements in 2024 across 20 destinations.
Please note: These sums are exclusive of what may be required for tuition, health insurance, airfare/travel, additional family members, or other fees. They are the funds the governments expect individual students to have available to them while studying for a certain time period. Also note: These values can change every year, and sometimes proof of funds depends on the student’s country and type of study. The best source of current information for students and agents are individual institutions and government officials. Our research is current as of April 2024.
• Australia: AUS$24,505 (US$15,690)
• Canada: CDN$20,635 (US$14,930)
• China: USD$2,500 per year of study
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• Czech Republic: 3,130 CZK (US$133) per month, so assuming a stay of one year, US$1,600
• Finland: £590 per month (US$630), so assuming a stay of one year, US$7,560
• France: £615 (US$655) per month of study (so assuming a study duration of nine months, US$5,895)
• Germany: £11.208 (US$11,952) for one year
• Ireland: €10,000 (US$10,680) immediately available and the same amount for each subsequent year of study
• Italy: £350 (US$375) per month of study (so assuming a study duration of nine months, US$3,375)
• Japan: 2 million Japanese yen (US$12,970) for one year
• Netherlands: €14.700 (US$15,685) for one year
• New Zealand: NZD$20,000 per year (USD$11,840)
• Portugal: €820 per month (US$875), so assuming a study duration of 12 months, US$10,500
• Singapore: 8,400S$ ($6,175)
• South Korea: US$20,000
• Spain: €600 (US$640) per month (so assuming a study duration of nine months, US$5,400)
• Switzerland: HF 21,000 (US$23,070) per year and the same amount for each subsequent year
• UAE: Depends on the university – for Abu Dhabi University, the proof of funds is US$15,000
• UK: Just over £1,100 (US$1,660) per month of study (so assuming a study duration of nine months, US$14,940)
• US: New F-1 students must prove that they have funds for the first year of study (some US embassies will ask for proof of funds for the duration of a programme). For those accepted to highly ranked institutions (e.g., University of California, Santa Barbara) – proof of funds can run over US$70,000 for the first year of a programme.
Considerable variation in terms of requirements
Looking at the research above, it’s clear that students must demonstrate a higher level of access to funds in Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, South Korea, Switzerland, the UK, and US (as well as some universities in the UAE) – all requiring over US$14,000. The next tier includes Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, and Portugal (US$10,000-$14,000), while countries requiring the least amount of available funds are China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Italy, Singapore, and Spain (under US$10,000).
On its own, a destination’s proof of funds requirement is not among the top factors influencing where students choose to study. But the requirement does provide a signal to students of whether they can comfortably afford to live in a destination – and in this sense, the funds requirement is an interesting variable in the overall way in which students measure the attractiveness of different destinations.
A growing body of industry research shows that in 2024, international students are considering a wider range of destinations, motivated by such factors as ease of getting a visa, post-study work opportunities, and affordability.
Today, our focus is on three alternative destinations that have – relatively quietly – been attracting considerably more student interest than in the past.
These destinations are Thailand, Poland, and the Philippines, countries that are all attractive in terms of affordability as well as strengths unique to their location and education system.
Please note: Cost of living and study costs change fairly regularly, as do visa requirements. It’s important to check with individual institutions and government officials for the most current information in these respects.
THAILAND
Increased demand from China
According to Thailand’s Office of the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research, and Innovation, more than 30,000 international students were enrolled in Thai universities in in 2022, up from 25,100 in 2019. Since 2009, foreign enrolments in Thai universities have grown by about 2,000 per year thanks largely to increased demand from China.
The number of Chinese students studying in Thailand has doubled within the past five years to over 20,000, and University World News reports that 60% of foreign students in Thailand (as well as Malaysia) are Chinese. Myanmar and Cambodia are the next largest senders of students to Thailand, but they sent less than 5,000 students each in 2022.
The affordability advantage
Thailand has a compelling competitive advantage in 2024: affordability.
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Thailand is not only more affordable than the Big Four destinations of Australia, Canada, the UK, and US, but it is also less expensive – in terms of tuition and living costs – than the top Southeast Asian destinations of Malaysia and Singapore. Students need only to prove they have savings of US$360 when applying for a Thai student visa – an indication of just how affordable the country is to live and study in. (By contrast, students need savings of at least US$20,000 to cover tuition and living when applying for a visa for study in Australia, Canada, and US).
In terms of programme costs, bachelor’s degrees in Thailand range from about US$1,775 to $1,900 a semester, while master’s run from about US$2,320 to $2,500. Unipage.net provides the following table showing average tuition.
Tuition fees in Thailand. Source: Unipage.net
Students can live on a much smaller budget in Thailand than in many destinations. QS notes:
“Those on a tight student budget will be able to live on 650 baht (US$20) a day, covering food, transport and accommodation. For those looking to do some travelling and exploring while undertaking study in Thailand, you will likely need to budget around 1500 baht (US$46) per day.”
QS cautions, however, that living costs are higher in major cities like Bangkok.
Quality education offerings
Thailand isn’t just competitive on the basis of cost: it also has some very good universities and highly ranked programmes. For example, two Thai universities are ranked in the Top 100 in the QS Asia University Rankings 2024: Chulalongkorn University (#44) and Mahidol University (#51). Chiang Mai University also ranks highly at #102.
On the global QS 2024 rankings, these are the Thai universities in the top 100:
Chulalongkorn University: #211
Mahidol University: #382
Chiang Mai University: #571
Thammasat University: #600
Kasetsart University: #751-760
Prince of Songkla University: #901-950
Khon Kaen University: #901-950
King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi: #951-1000
Beyond those overall rankings, the following chart shows that several Thai universities perform well in specific subject areas.
Subjects strengths across Thai universities. Source: AECC Global
Overflow from students failing China’s ultra-competitive exams
Studying in Thailand is part of a larger trend of Chinese students choosing to study in Asia if they fail their very competitive postgraduate exams. University World News has reported that:
“Yangyang Study Abroad Private education consultancy surveys in China put the proportion of applicants who fail the postgraduate exam and then apply to universities in Asia at between 40% (estimated by the agency) and 66% (estimated by other lesser-known agencies).”
Transnational Education (TNE) is part of Thailand’s plan to become a regional education hub
Over the past five years, TNE activity has been intense in Thailand, and the Thai government sees foreign partnerships and the establishment of branch campuses in Thailand to be a key means of attracting more international students from the region. The UK is particularly active in this regard in Thailand, and there now more than 120 active collaborative agreements between British and Thai universities.
Thousands of Thai students are abroad but high costs are dampening demand
At the same time as Thailand is attracting more inbound students, it is also sending out tens of thousands (more than 30,000 in 2022). However, agents are noticing more hesitancy this year among Thai students considering study abroad. Speaking during StudyTravel’s Alphe Asia conference in February 2024, Sethaphol Rutrakool, president of the Thai education consultancy TIECA, said:
“I think that since the pandemic, the market in Thailand has recovered, but in 2024 it is not so good. Because of inflation, the costs of everything have gone up – the costs of homestays, tuition fees and everything while the purchasing power of the students and parents is not fully back yet. So, I think it’s kind of a tough situation right now. It’s going [to] slow down from what I’ve seen for the remainder of this year and maybe next year as well.”
POLAND
Over the course of the past decade, the number of international students in Poland has tripled and last year reached a record-high of over 100,000 according to the education magazine Perspektywy. A total of 102,200 international students were registered in the education ministry database for the 2022/23 academic year and about 9% of all students in Poland’s universities are now foreign.
Poland offers over 300 English-taught university programmes, an advantage that appeals to a large segment of international students.
Steep rise in Ukrainians
A key reason for the increase is a significant rise in the number of Ukrainian students, many of whom have left their country due to Russia’s invasion. Nearly 50,000 Ukrainians are studying in Poland and account for nearly half of all foreign students.
But as reported in NotesfromPoland.com, Poland is also attracting students from a wide range of other countries, including Belarus (12,000), Turkey (3,800), Zimbabwe (3,600), India (2,700), Azerbaijan (2,500), Uzbekistan (2,100), China (1,800), Kazakhstan (1,700), and Nigeria (1,600).
The presence of so many Zimbabweans is interesting – there are more Zimbabwean students in Poland than in Canada (1,425), the US (1,790), or Australia (1,665), despite these destinations’ more intense recruiting in Zimbabwe over the past couple of years.
Of the 100,000+ international students in 2022/23, Perspektywy magazine notes: “This reflects the huge amount of work done by Polish higher education in the last 19 years … when Poland joined the EU in 2004 it had only 8,800 foreign students … just 0.5% of all students at the time and the lowest relative figure in Europe.”
Affordability
Poland is an affordable destination compared to many in Europe. Study.eu provides the following illustrative chart showing tuition fees at several major Polish universities:
Tuition fee ranges in Poland. Source: Study.eu
The Polish government says that international students can expect a cost of living of about €330 (US$350) a month, though living in cities can be more expensive. More information can be viewed here.
The fee for a student visa application is €80 (US$85). In terms of proof of funds, a student must show they have 776 PLN (US$190) plus tuition for each month of their stay in Poland plus enough for return travel back to their country. They must also show they can pay for accommodation.
12 unis in the Top 1,000
There are close to 400 state and private universities in Poland. Two Polish universities are in the top 500 in QS’s 2024 World University Rankings: University of Warsaw (#262) and Jagiellonian University (#304). Overall, these are the Polish universities in the top 1,000:
University of Warsaw: #262
Jagiellonian University: #304
Warsaw University of Technology: #571
Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań: #731-740
Poznan University of Life Sciences: #801-850
Gdańsk University of Technology: #851-900
AGH University of Krakow: #901-950
Nicolaus Copernicus University: #901-950
University of Wroclaw: #901-950
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology: #901-950
University of Gdańsk: #951-1000
University of Lodz: #951-1000
PHILIPPINES
The Philippines is a crucial source of students for many destinations. It is now Canada’s third largest market behind only India and China, sending 48,870 students in 2023, 50% more than in 2022. It is Australia’s fourth largest market after China, India, and Nepal, with 48,300 students enrolled in 2024. Australia has been expanding its Filipino student population even faster than Canada has – the total for 2024 is up 194% over 2023 and represents a massive jump of 469% since 2019.
But the Philippines is also an attractive destination for a growing number of students, even though international students make up only 1% of the total student population. In 2022, the Philippines hosted 22,250 international students, 53% more than in 2021. As in Poland, international students have many English-taught programmes to consider in the Philippines.
The expansion of the Philippines’ international student population intensified after the COVID pandemic. Source: ApplyBoard
STEM programmes draw the most students
Interestingly, the Philippines is enrolling most of its international students to STEM programmes. As you can see from the chart below, STEM students make up a larger proportion of the overall student population in the Philippines than they do in any other destination represented in the data.
Three-quarters of international students in higher education in the Philippines are in STEM programmes. Source: Project Atlas
Indian students’ growing interest in the Philippines
The Philippines’ international enrolment growth has been largely driven by Indian students. In 2022, these were the top five markets for universities in the Philippines:
India: 16,010
China: 4,460
Nigeria: 1,930
South Korea: 144
Thailand: 137
The Economic Times notes: “While traditional destinations like the UK, US, Australia and Canada remain popular [for Indian students], other countries like Uzbekistan, Philippines, Russia, Ireland, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are gaining interest.”
ApplyBoard points out that once a destination attracts a critical mass of Indian students, it tends to expand its international student population at an increasingly rapid rate:
“Once Indian students penetrate a market, history tells us that the market will skyrocket in popularity. Not just among Indian students, but all international students.
Take the UK for example, which hosted 18,000 Indian students in 2017. Today, the UK is projected to welcome over 100,000 new Indian international students next year, which will make India the UK’s number one source market.
We will be watching the Philippines closely to see if this spike in Indian interest is the catalyst of quick growth.”
Affordability
International students can expect to pay €500–€2,000 (US$530–$2,030) per year in tuition – making the Philippines one of the most affordable study abroad destinations in the world, especially considering that the cost of living ranges from €650–€1,000 per month (US$692–$1,065).
The visa application fee is US$100 plus $40 for a compulsory registration card. There is no set amount required for proof of financial means, but students must present evidence they can afford their course of study, accommodation, and living expenses while in the Philippines.
QS rankings
Five universities in the Philippines feature in QS’s 2024 World University Rankings:
University of the Philippines: #404
Anteneo de Manila University: #563
De La Salle University: #681-690
University of Santo Thomas: #801-850
University of San Carlos: #1201-1400
The allure of alternative destinations
The costs of living and studying – plus hefty requirements for proving sufficient financial resources – are making it impossible for thousands of students to study in the leading English-speaking destinations. But strong demand for study abroad remains, and students are proving themselves quite willing to travel to emerging destinations to earn a foreign degree at a cost that won’t leave them (and their families) desperate for cash.
Thailand, Poland, and the Philippines are just three of the alternative destinations enrolling many more students than in the past on the basis of affordability. Other host countries that have attracted significantly more international students over the past few years include Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, and Japan.
Campus France has released its international student enrolment data for 2022/23, and in contrast to the double-digit percentage upticks recorded for that year in Canada (+30%) and the UK (+16%), the year-over-year increase in France was +3% for a total of 412,000. That increment adds to a total increase of 17% in the country’s international student base over the last five years.
The main sending regions for French higher education institutions were Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa. Between 2017 and 2022, these were the regional trends:
Sub-Saharan Africa: +34% for a total of 95,285
North Africa: +10 for a total of 91,865
EU: +24 for a total of 73,310
Asia/Oceania: -3% for a total of 51,992
Europe (non-EU): +12% for a total of 29,605
Middle East: +50% for a total of 22,445
South America: +1% for a total of 15,220
Central America/Caribbean: +40% for a total of 9,875
North America: +8% for a total of 8,965
As those values reflect, and as we see illustrated in the chart below, the Middle East/North Africa and Sub-Saharan African regions have been the main growth drivers in recent years.
Foreign enrolment in France by region of origin, 2017/18–2022/23. Note that “ANMO” refers to Middle East and North Africa. Source: Campus France
In terms of top sending countries, African countries once again took the top two spots, with China, Italy, and Senegal rounding out the Top 5. China is the only Top 10 market sending fewer students to France in 2022 than in 2017. In more detail, here are the trends by country (percentage increases are for 2017-22):
Morocco +13% for a total of 45,160
Algeria: +5% for a total of 32,145
China: -15% for a total of 25,605
Italy: +50% for a total of 20,030
Senegal: +39% for a total of 15,250
Tunisia: +11% for a total of 14,290
Spain: +48% for a total of 11,595
Lebanon: +103% for a total of 11,530
Cote d’Ivoire: +32% for a total of 10,690
Cameroon: +42% for a total of 9,765
Otherwise, Campus France notes:
“21 of the top 25 contingents of international students are increasing in 2022-2023, with a particularly strong rise in the number of Italian, Spanish, Lebanese, Congolese, and Indian students. The number of Ukrainian students has also doubled in one year (+111%), an increase linked to the continuing war.”
A more sustainable increase?
France’s 17% increase from 2017–22 compares with Canada’s expansion of +63% and the UK’s growth of +43% in the same time frame. Suffice to say, France has recorded a relatively gradual expansion of its international student population. Its more moderate growth curve may allow it to avoid the boomerang-type policies imposed in 2023 and 2024 by Australia, Canada, and the UK – policies aimed at rapidly curbing the surge of foreign students to lower net migration and to ease pressure on public infrastructure that has not kept up with population growth.
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Those policies have sent shockwaves across student markets around the world and have caused students to reconsider where they want to study. Particularly in that context, France’s more modest record of year-over-year growth may well be a more sustainable pattern, for the medium term at least.
Students of Federal Polytechnic, Oko, Anambra State, have staged a protest against incessant imposition of fees on them by the school management.
The protest was provoked by a recent imposition of a compulsory N5000 examination fees and the insistence of the school management to deny those who have not paid the alleged fees from writing their exams.
It was gathered that the students carried different placards with inscriptions such as “reduce the cost of texts books”; “allow us to do our medical and data capture”; “say no to corrupt stakeholders” ; “say no to exam fees”; “breakdown our tuition fees” etc.
The students numbering over 1000 from different departments sang solidarity songs and chants as they protested from the school main gate to their administrative building, departments, to the permanent site and terminated at the popular school tower to show their displeasure over the continuous increment and incessant imposition of fees such as examination and ICT fees, forceful sales of handouts to them, among others.
Addressing the students, the Secretary General, National Association Of Nigeria Students, South East Zone, Comrade Cynthia Felix appealed for calm and expressed her resolve to make sure the students are not fleeced in any way.
She stated categorically that examination fees is unlawful and demanded for a fee schedule in order to know the need for the said exam fees.
She kicked against the extortion, demanded the immediate withdrawal of the memo that introduced the fee and that all students should be allowed to sit for their examination.
For the Vice President, National Association of Polytechnic Students, South East, Chukwuebuka Umezula, the school management on 9th of April, 2024, released a memo informing students to pay an examination fees of N5000 on or before 12th April, 2024 before commencement of the examination.
He condemned the short notice fell on a public holidays and wondered the reason for an examination fee after they had paid their tuition fees and why the examination fee will deny them taking their exams.
According to Umezula, they will continue the protest and boycott all examinations until the management changes its decision and said that the students have laboured, struggled and battled to pay tuition fees, medical fees, ICT fees, among others.
He said the National Association of Polytechnic Students has written the school management over the memo but was not attended to.
Some students who spoke to our correspondent, including Kenechukwu Okafor, Merchant Jamesetta, Ifunaya Lucia and Pius Okolo said their parents are struggling to pay their tuition fees and wondered the motive behind the imposition of more fees them and begged the Federal Ministry of education to investigate and intervene.
Responding, the Acting Public Relations Officer of the institution, Mr. Chijioke Ibeziako appealed to journalists to kindly play down on the report and promised that the issues will be settled internally.
A Professor of Counselling Psychology, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University (COOU), Anambra State, Prof Nnamdi Josephat Obikeze, has attributed inadequate funding, death of qualified and experienced Counsellors, incompetence among Counsellors, non functioning professional bodies, proliferation and use of quasi Counsellors, inadequate sensitization of citizens about Counselling Unfavourable government policies, over dependence on government for support and non uniformity of Counselling programmes in Universities as factors affecting Guidance and Counselling practice in Nigeria.
He said the situation has also discouraged many young Nigerians from enrolling into the practice.
Obikeze called on the government to urgently do something about it to safe the profession from total collapsed in the country.
According to him, guidance counsellors as professional are responsible to a number of people whom he is obliged to service. These individuals and group include the following: To Himself To the Client To the Employer To the Association/Profession and To the Society.
They assist people in fulfilling their needs such as maximization of potentials, provision of information, liaising with other health professionals development and use of Psychological tests, maintaining confidential records, acting as Consultant Counselling against social vices and making referrals and acting as referees Conducting research.
Prof Obikeze who disclosed this while delivering the 12th Innaugural lecture series of the University, held at Prof Ben Nwazojie auditorium Igbariam campus, on Tuesday, however, list some principles that governed Counselling practice in Nigeria to include;: Beneficence: Obligation to protect the right of the client and prevent harm.
Non-beneficence-act of restraining from doing something that will cause harm to the client.
Justice- ability of the Counsellor or Therapist to treat everybody fairly and equally. Confidentially- keeping the affairs of the clients secret. Fidelity- being sincere and transparent as well as keeping to the promise made during Counselling.
Others are: debriefing- notifying the clients the likely consequences of the Counselling session so as to prepare his mind towards an event.
Informed Consent- acceptance or permission to participate in counselling activities. And there should be no use of force or compulsion and *Competence..
In conclusion, Obikeze, while advising Counselling Psychologist in Nigeria to adhere to the ethics of the profession and abide by the relevant existing laws of the land, suggested that erring Counseillors should be tried and sanctioned if found guilty to act as deterrent to others and the recruitment of more Guidance Counsellor to work in schools and other organization across sectors of Nigeria economy.
The President General of Awa community, in Orumba North Council Area of the State, Dr. Raymond Ofor who spoke on the same vein, while speaking to Journalists shortly after the event, urged the Federal government to fund Counselling practitioners in Nigeria, saying, it will help retune the students in their academic pursue.
The event was fully attended by the University community including the Ag Vice Chancellor, Prof Kate Azuka Omenugha who participated via visual.
The acting Vice Chancellor, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University (COOU), Prof. Kate Azuka Omenugha, has charged the newly appointed heads of departments, she also called as “Team 3vs of the University” to be determined to aggressively pursue excellence for the growth and development of the University.
Prof Omenugha announced the appointments while declaring open a two-day capacity building programme for the Varsity staff, held at the school auditurium Igbariam campus, on Tuesday.
The Team 3vs, as she explained, involves the Deans, Directors, and Heads of Departments explaining that the 3vs are Values, Viability, and Visibility.
The Ag. Vice Chancellor informed that for the “Vs” to be entrenched, the Team should be able to build trust, understand the vision better, ensure total buy-in, promote long-term collaborations and relationships, create a shared vision and objectives, and be ready to mitigate imminent threats and uncertainties.
Explaining further, she emphasized that achieving the anticipated success of the administration would never be easy as inadequate resources, conflict of interests, insufficient capabilities, lack of drive and passion, fatigue, and cynicism are all factors that might pose challenges but they must resolve to be firm as Leaders for the general good of all.
According to her, “Our vision is to enhance the visibility of COOU through reforms in teaching and learning and disruptive academic thrusts. We shall deploy discipline and the rule of law as a gateway to academic excellence and the highest standards of professional growth.
“We shall deploy strategies that would make the university look beyond subvention from the State Government, especially to provide for the infrastructural and physical development of the University, she said.
Delivering a paper on “Building a team spirit to achieve the COOU vision”, Prof. Uche Veronica Amazigo, a retired Director of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Programme on Onchocerciasis (River Blindness), discussed her journey in WHO and how Team spirit became the magic wand during her days at the World Health Organization.
She charged the University to key into the vision of the administration and vigorously work as a team while delivering their services at Faculties, Directorates, and Departments stating that if that is done effectively, Ojukwu University in the next 5 years would be a force to reckon with.
Other paper presenters include; the Deputy Vice-Chancellor Academics, Prof. Osita Chiaghanam, who delivered a paper on “Understanding the Duties of a Head of Department”; the University’s Ag. Bursar, Dr. Nath Udezo who discoursed “Accountability, Transparency; the Roles of the Heads of Departments” and the University’s ICT providers; Tenece Solutions who integrated the Team on the various I.T reforms of the new administration and the plan for full digitization of the University.
Participants expressed excitement at the initiatives and drive of the new Ag. Vice Chancellor. They noted that this is the first time in the history of the University, that the University Management as led by the Vice Chancellor is organizing such a program. They prayed to the Vice Chancellor to sustain the momentum as they were ready to work and support her to ensure that all her good intentions were met.
It was gathered that the two-day programme is for Tuesday 9th and Friday 12th April April 2024 where the University Ethics Committee will be inaugurated and the University will sign up as one of the global partners of Ethical University around the world as a way of effectively driving her Vs visibility.
In many respects, the implementation of Canada’s newly established cap on international student enrolment has been shrouded in secrecy these last few months. Some of that fog fell away on 5 April when Immigration Minister Marc Miller released a detailed statement explaining how the national cap will be allocated across provinces and territories this year, along with the high-level targets that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has set for new study permits for 2024.
The important background here is the two-year cap on the number of new study permits announced by IRCC in January 2024. The extent to which study permit issuances will decline, relative to 2023 levels, has been variously reported, but it seems increasingly clear that the government has a goal to hold total foreign enrolment at, or even somewhat below, 2023 levels.
As Mr Miller explains:
“The national cap is based on the amount of expiring study permits this year. This means that the number of international students coming to Canada in 2024 should be the same as the number of students whose permits expire this year. For 2024, the target is 485,000 approved study permits.”
Further:
“About 20% of students apply for an extension each year and remain in the country. Therefore, IRCC subtracted that amount (97,000) from the target of 485,000 and set aside a small buffer to allow for other variations, resulting in a revised target of 364,000 approved study permits in 2024.”
In recent years, an average of 60% of international students’ study permit applications have been approved. With that in mind, the government had earlier determined that 606,000 study permit applications could be distributed nationally in 2024. In other words, of 606,000 study permit applications submitted by international students should yield something in the neighbourhood of 364,000 approved study permits.
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But then there was a subtraction from the total:
“Some international students are exempt from the cap, such as primary and secondary school students and master’s or doctoral degree students. IRCC deducted the estimated volume of these groups (140,000 based on 2023 data) from the 2024 target number of approved study permits. This resulted in a target of 236,000 approved study permits for 2024, which converts to roughly 393,000 study permit applications to be allocated.”
The Minister goes on to explain, however, that owing to various adjustments to provincial allocations, “A total of about 552,000 study permit applications have been allocated to provinces and territories under the national cap [for 2024]. These allocations are expected to yield approximately 292,000 approved study permits, representing a 28% reduction from 2023 for the groups included under the cap.”
We can see some of those adjustments, the projected increase or decrease in study permit approvals compared to 2023, and the final, official provincial or territorial allocations in the summary table below
Canada’s international study permit cap allocation model for 2024. Source: IRCC
Of note in the table above is that the total projected number of approved study permits remains at 291,914, even after the increased total allocations to provinces and territories. If, based on a total national cap allocation of about 486,000 study permit applications (as in Column A in the table), IRCC were to approve 292,000 study permits, that would amount to a 60% approval rate. This reflects the recent historical average for the approval rate otherwise referenced by IRCC in its earlier commentaries about the cap implementation.
However, the table points to an important variation here. Even as IRCC increased the national allocation of study permit applications to 552,095, it did not alter its projected volume of study permits, which remains at just under 292,000 in the final column in the table. This appears to be because (as noted in the table header), IRCC is anticipating an “approval rate below 60%”.
Minister Miller goes on to explain that:
“Many variables may influence the number of new international students who arrive in Canada in 2024, for example
provinces and territories with room to grow may not end up using their full allocations
approval rates may change
in-year adjustments may be required
These results will help me make decisions on allocations for 2025.”
All that to say that it seems clear from the cap projections that IRCC is anticipating a lower approval rate for 2024, something more like 53% as opposed to the 60% benchmark. While this has not been explicitly stated by IRCC, this suggests in turn that immigration officials are expecting to actively manage approval rates down for this year.
In his October 2023 address, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee set out some ambitious goals for the territory’s foreign enrolment, including that Hong Kong would, “Double the quota for non-local students in subsidised post-secondary institutions to 40%, and strengthen scholarships and related supporting facilities to attract more foreign and mainland students to study in Hong Kong.” For comparison’s sake, the current non-local enrolment in Hong Kong was roughly equivalent to 25% of total post-secondary enrolment as of 2022/23.
However, a new report from real estate services firm JLL Hong Kong makes the point that the territory also needs to seriously factor an expansion of student housing in those plans. Unlocking student accommodation market potential in Hong Kong projects that non-local enrolment in Hong Kong higher education will reach 92,000 by 2027/28, up nearly 50% from 2022/23. Much of that growth will because, “Hong Kong is drawing increasingly more students from mainland China and across the globe,” as home to five of the world’s top 100 universities, and, JLL expects, it will attract increasing private investment in expanding student housing stock.
Non-local enrolment in Hong Kong higher education. Source: JLL
JLL estimates that 37,200 non-local students currently opt for private housing during their studies – a figure that is projected to grow to nearly 60,000 within the next four years.
The following graphic illustrates the current (2022/23) and projected breakdown of non-local enrolment by housing type, and indicates an estimated shortfall of more than 22,000 student beds by 2027/28.
Estimated distribution of non-local enrolment by housing type, 2022/23 and 2027/28 Source: JLL
That growing demand on available housing stock, and the looming housing crunch that it suggests, is in turn fuelling real upward pressure on rental rates.
“Rental prices in Y83, the largest private student accommodation in the city, recorded an annual growth rate of over 10% since 2022. We observed that the rents of private student accommodation are soaring at an accelerated pace in the last 12 months and reached 15%, the highest [rate of increase yet],” said JLL’s Head of Capital Markets Oscar Chan. “Residential rents have increased by 7.0% since the borders reopening in early 2023, while the room rates of hotels also increased. The rents of private student accommodation are expected to grow further as the demand for student accommodation is currently underserved and the population of non-local student is growing rapidly. Private student accommodation will be a new investment property asset”.
The report makes it plain that the growing supply-demand gap in housing could put a serious curb on Hong Kong’s plans to expands its non-local student base: “The overheated leasing market, coupled with escalating rents, poses a significant challenge to finding suitable and affordable private accommodation. The scarcity of reasonably priced good quality accommodation options could dissuade international students from selecting Hong Kong as their preferred destination for higher education.”
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In all of these respects, Hong Kong is repeating the lesson learned by so many other destinations in recent years: that any goals for significant growth in international enrolment have to be accompanied by a similar expansion of student housing stock.
New research underlines the extent to which international students look closely at work opportunities and immigration policy in general when comparing potential destinations for study abroad. By extension, the research suggests:
How important it is that education institutions clearly communicate to students the most current information available about visa, work permits, and immigration opportunities in their country;
That a lag between government announcements about policies and governments communicating in a timely way with educators affected by these policies can greatly hamper institutions’ ability to communicate as well as they would like to with students and agents;
That new immigration settings in Australia, Canada, and the UK are affecting international students’ motivation to study in these countries.
AECC survey goes out to students in top student markets around the world
Overseas education consultancy AECC conducted a survey in March 2024 of more than 8,300 prospective students in 124 countries (but was not widely distributed in China). The most represented nationalities were:
India
Philippines
Nigeria
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Singapore
The survey found that more than half of surveyed students were interested in working in their host country after studying (56%), while a smaller proportion (28%) hoped to emigrate to that country. Only 16% wanted to leave immediately after completing their studies.
Not surprising – given the high demand for work experience abroad – is that 79% of students said post-study work rights were extremely important to them when considering study abroad. Another 19% said they were moderately important and less than 3% said they were not important.
The next screenshot from the AECC slide deck underlines that job opportunities and work rights are about as influential as quality of education for international students making choices about study abroad. Much lower on the list of priorities are migration opportunities.
Top motivations for choosing a study abroad destination. Source: AECC
Demand is decreasing for Australia, Canada, and the UK
About 1 in 6 surveyed students said that they had changed their destination preference in the past 12 months. Among those students, interest had increased for New Zealand (+86%), Germany (+36%), and the US (+13%). It had decreased markedly for Canada (-32%) and had also weakened for the UK (-16%) and Australia (-9%).
When looking at the screen shot below, it’s important to note (1) the asterisks signalling that the increases for New Zealand and Germany are in a context of relatively smaller volumes choosing those destinations overall, and that 2022 data findings were in a context of the first “post-COVID” era (e.g., Australia had just opened its borders).
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Trends in students’ preferences for select destinations. Source: AECC
Of those students who had changed their destination preference, most were motivated to do so because of the high fees in their original country of choice (24%), but significant proportions were also influenced by “negative policy changes for international students” (14%) and “better job opportunities in my [new] preferred country.”
Students who changed preferred destinations were most likely to have done so because of affordability and work opportunities. Source: AECC
Ascent One survey highlights need for clear communications to students and agents
Ascent One – a platform for higher education providers to manage agent networks, admissions, and marketing – also published findings this month of its own survey of just over 1,000 current, former, and prospective international students from China, India, Philippines, and Colombia. These students were asked specifically about their experience relating to studying in Australia. China, India, Philippines, and Colombia are four of Australia’s top 5 student source countries (Vietnam is the other – #3 currently after China and India).
From this survey, an important and potentially worrisome finding emerged: 41% of prospective and current students were not aware of current migration settings in Australia. Of those who did know, over three-quarters (77%) had to find out on their own. Another 15% learned about Australian visa and work policies through their agent.
More than a quarter (27%) of prospective students who had found about tighter immigration controls (which dovetail with soaring visa rejection rates said they are less likely to pursue plans to study in Australia. (The trend of affected student demand has emerged in IDP and Studyportals research as well this year – and for Canada and the UK as well as Australia.)
The study also found that:
The main reason surveyed international students choose to study in Australia is “better career opportunities post-study” (63%);
Only 23% of current students are working in a job that is related to their studies;
44% of former students are working in a job that is not related to their studies.
Of those who said they were not working in a job related to their studies, more than a third (37%) said they were ineligible to apply for a job – or had been rejected for a job – because they did not have an Australian permanent resident visa or full-time work rights.
Markets like certainty, and student markets are no exception
Confusion about immigration policies, visas, and work rights is all the more likely this year in Australia – as well as Canada – given a lag between announcements of new settings and institutions being fully briefed on what this meant for their operations and students. This has, in turn, made it difficult for institutions to provide the kind of clarity and communications they would ideally like provide their students and agents.
Despite the more challenging environment for international students in Australia, however, the Ascent One survey found that 85% of current and former students enrolled in Australian institutions would recommend Australia as a place to study to their friends and family in their home country,
Of the survey findings, Naresh Gulati, founder and CEO of Ascent One said:
“Our survey reveals a big problem right now – the country is sacrificing future Australians at our own cost. The government’s decision to target international student visas to cut migration numbers is already having an impact. Our survey found that of the students who knew about the recent migration policy changes, over three-quarters (77%) found out about the changes themselves and only 15% via their agent, revealing a big communication gap between the government, education providers, agents and students that needs to be fixed. While the majority of students still recommend Australia as a place to study, our reputation as a world-class destination for study is shaky at best and needs urgent attention.”
