Category: Education

For the first time in ten years, the total number of students enrolled in UK universities fell in 2023/24 compared with the previous year, according to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA).

The overall decline was only -1%, but underlying that was a -7% decline in foreign enrolments. That dip was driven in turn by major decreases in some of the top overseas sending markets for UK higher education: Nigeria (-36%), and India (-15%). Enrolments were also down by -4% from China.

A total of 732,285 international students were enrolled in UK universities that year, with 656,735 from non-EU countries.

Taught master’s programmes bore the brunt of the decline

In 2024, international students in taught master’s programmes joined the ranks of those in undergraduate programmes in being banned from bringing their family with them to the UK (the so-called dependants ban). Only international students in research-oriented graduate programmes and those on government scholarships are now permitted to bring their families with them.

Taught master’s had been incredibly popular among international students, not least because many of these programmes take only a year to complete. Their short duration meant they were a relatively affordable option for students wanting a UK-earned graduate credential that would also let them pursue post-study work opportunities and possibly permanent residency in the UK.

The dependants ban was announced in the summer of 2023, and data show that as soon as many international students discovered it would apply to them as of January 2024, they changed their study abroad plans. This trend was much more pronounced in markets where bringing family is considered essential – for example, Nigeria – and less pronounced in EU markets and China (where many students go back home after completing their degrees).

The HESA data show student numbers fell for all levels of study except postgraduate research degrees. They were down -1% for undergraduate programmes and a much more severe -8% for taught master’s degrees.

That said, international students continued to compose more than 60% of all students in full-time postgraduate courses in the UK in 2023/24.

Top non-EU markets

India (166,310) remained the top market for UK universities in 2023/24, growing much more steeply than #2 China (149,885) over the past five years, as shown in the chart below. Rounding out the Top 10 were Nigeria (57,505), Pakistan (45,720), US (23,250), Hong Kong (17,250), Malaysia (12,760), Nepal (12,715), Bangladesh (12,285), and Saudi Arabia (9,680).

Top EU markets

With one exception, EU enrolments in UK universities have declined among the Top 10 EU sending markets since 2021/22. That exception is Ireland, which is now the top EU country for UK educators (9,690). The graph below illustrates the sharpness of some of the declines in other EU markets.

Student numbers in TNE degree programmes surge

In contrast to home-based enrolments, enrolments in UK transnational education (TNE) offered outside of the country rose by 8%. More than 620,000 students were “either registered overseas at a UK higher education provider or studying for a UK higher education qualification in 2023/24.”

More recent trends

While the HESA data are for full-year 2023/2024, other data show more recent trends in visa issuances. In 2024, 393,125 sponsored study visas were issued to main applicants (i.e., students) in 2024, a 14% drop compared with 2023. Visas issued to Nigerian and Indian students declined by -55% and -26%, respectively.

In brighter news, in January 2025, according to Home Office data, students submitted 28,700 applications for sponsored-study visas, a 13% increase over January 2024.

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Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen recap some recent industry developments, including a shift to a more strategic approach to student recruitment and a renewed call for diversity in foreign enrolments.

This month’s episode puts the focus on rising visa rejection rates in a number of major study destinations, a pattern that is having a major impact not just on the students but equally on the schools and agencies handling their recruitment.

Joining our hosts to explore this important issue are Michal Sestak, Managing Director of AustraliaOnline and Shawn Silverstone, Director of International Marketing and Recruitment with the Coquitlam School District.

We conclude with a closer look at East Africa as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

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Just a couple of years ago, Indian students were flocking to a number of attractive study abroad destinations, and especially to the “Big Four” of Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Collectively, those four host countries welcomed more than 70% of all Indian students abroad, offering a range of study opportunities, post-study work rights, and the possibility of immigration.

The appeal of those leading destinations remains, but over the last year it has become more difficult for international students to:

• Get a study visa
• Bring family with them
• Secure post-study work rights
• Afford their studies
• Become permanent residents
• Feel certain that policy settings are stable

These challenges are making it more challenging for many international students from around the world to pursue study abroad in a Big Four destination – not just Indian students.

However, for schools and universities in the Big Four countries, Indian enrolments have been crucial, with India often representing the first or second-largest market for many institutions and schools. Now, however, many of those educators are coping with a significant softening, or even decline, in Indian student numbers.

For example, Indian government data indicates that the number of degree-seeking Indian students travelling abroad for studies declined by almost -15% in 2024 compared with 2023, and (rounded to the nearest hundred) by:

• -41% in Canada (from 233,500 in 2023 to 137,600 in 2024)
• -28% in the UK (from 136,900 to 98,900)
• -13% in the US (from 234,500 to 204,000)
• -12% in Australia (from 78,100 to 68,600)

Overall, 759,000 Indian students studied abroad in 2024 according to Indian government data, down from 893,000 in 2023.

While Indian enrolments in Canada, the UK, and US have declined, these destinations still accounted for nearly three-quarters (72%) of Indian students abroad in 2024.

What is driving Indian student outbound in 2025?

For the most part, it is policies in Australia, Canada, and the UK – and growing unease about President Trump’s treatment of immigrants – that are depressing Indian student demand for study in one of the Big Four destinations. Also contributing is the recent depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar, which makes it even more expensive for Indian students to study abroad. Sudarshan Motwani, founder and CEO of BookMyForex.com, points out: “Even a slight fluctuation can inflate students’ annual expenses, making budgeting a daunting task.” Eela Dubey, co-founder of EduFund, elaborates:

“Rupee depreciation acts as hidden inflation for Indian students aspiring to study abroad, significantly increasing the cost of education, even if universities do not raise tuition fees. This means that even if a university maintains its tuition fee in USD, Indian students end up paying more in [rupees] solely because of currency fluctuations.”

Speaking with University World News, Maria Mathai, founder of MM Advisory Services, called lower Indian outbound a “market adjustment” rather than an exit. She said: “It’s a recalibration, not a collapse. Students are responding pragmatically to shifting costs and changing visa rules.” She continued:

“Student priorities are evolving with each policy shift in the industry. Our destination maps now have layered overlays – visa stability indices atop rankings. The student who once asked: ‘What’s your university’s rank?’ now asks: “What salary can I expect, and which programme guarantees work rights if policy changes?’”

A recent report from the British Council adds that the number of students from India “will almost surely decline” for major study designations this year. While the fundamentals – including the massive demand for higher education – remain very strong for the Indian market, “the broad-based slowdown in outbound mobility from India is driven in part by a market correction after enrolments from the country surged in 2022 and 2023. Tightening visa restrictions in major host destination countries are also depressing demand from less qualified Indian students.”

Indian students warming to alternative destinations

In contrast to trends in the Big Four, and according to Indian government data, Indian student numbers are rising in destinations such as:

• Germany: +68% from 2022 to 2024 (from 20,700 to 34,700)
• Russia: +59% from 2022 to 2024 (from 19,800 to 31,400)
• France: +33% from 2022 to 2024 (from 6,400 to 8,500)
• New Zealand: +354% from 2022 to 2024 (from 1,600 to 7,300)
• Ireland: +49% from 2022/23 to 2023/24 (from 4,700 to 7,000)

Uzbekistan and Bangladesh are also very popular according to Indian government data, welcoming 10,000 and 8,900 Indian students in 2024, respectively.

Germany’s high quality of education and low tuition fees are its main draw for Indian students. France is also more affordable than the Big Four and like Germany, boasts several highly ranked universities. Seventeen German universities are in the Top 500 tier of the QS 2025 World University rankings, and France boasts the same number of higher education institutions in that tier.

France has stated a goal of welcoming 30,000 Indian students by 2030. It is recruiting more intensively in India accordingly. Indian students can access a new French-language foundation programme to prep them for French bachelor’s or graduate programmes, or they can choose from nearly 2,000 English-language programmes in the country. Post-study opportunities are another draw: Indians graduating with French master’s degrees are one of only five nationalities who can benefit from a two-year post-study stay visa.

Russia, meanwhile, has always been popular in India for its medical, engineering, and aviation programmes. It is vastly more affordable than the Big Four, and its admission requirements are far lower.

New Zealand is gaining market share as the most welcoming Anglophone destination for Indian students in terms of study and work visa opportunities. It offers highly ranked universities and is considered safe. Safety is naturally an enduring priority for all international students, and along with New Zealand’s policy environment, is part of the reason that there was a 24% increase in international student numbers in New Zealand in Jan-August 2024 (73,500) versus Jan-August 2023.

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Keri Ramirez, managing director of sector data specialist Studymove, hosted a fascinating webinar recently that looked at the factors influencing Australian universities to set their pricing strategies in 2024/2025. Mr Ramirez noted that determining pricing is complex for any organisation, but perhaps particularly so for universities facing challenges due to volatile immigration settings.
 
Across the 40 Australian universities Studymove analysed, enrolment fees for international students rose by 5.2% between 2024 and 2025, compared with only 3.5% in 2023, bringing the year-over-year increase rate back to a level not seen since 2019. Underlying the broad trend is sector-wide unease with ever-changing policies as well as inflationary pressures.
 
Behind the average 5.2% increase are important underlying trends influenced by which universities are most and least negatively impacted by a current Australian immigration directive called Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111).

Policy context

Over the past two years, the Australian government has introduced a number of measures to control the flow of international students into Australia, including proposing, and subsequently withdrawing, legislation to establish a cap on foreign enrolments. There are currently no formal caps on new international student numbers. However:

• As a result of the government’s Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111), enacted in December 2024, individual universities have received guidance about how they should target foreign enrolment levels. Some institutions have been given the green light for growth, while others have been told to constrain their international recruitment.



• MD111 instructs the immigration department to adapt visa processing (including times, approvals, and rejections) according to those groupings, which is in effect controlling the general flow of students (1) from certain countries and (2) into different institutions.

How MD111 has changed the pricing landscape

Mr Ramirez notes that the MD111-created groupings of universities is a large factor in the more variable pricing models that are being observed in Australia this year. Specifically:

• Growth-constrained universities are tending to raise international student tuition fees more than those without constraints. Their revenue potential has been sapped by de facto enrolment caps, so they need to find ways to make up the difference. Their average international tuition fee hike over the past year is 5.5%.



• Those with room to build international enrolments are more likely to be working to increase their market share. They have room to increase their volume of international students, and so are less pressed to raise tuition to the same extent as the other group. Their average international tuition fee hike over the past year is 4.9%.



A wide range of pricing models

The chaotic environment over the past couple of years has led to a very wide range of undergraduate tuition fees charged to international students across the 40 universities Studymove analysed. Each blue dot in the following graph represents one of those universities. The average fee is AUS$39,805, but the extremes are AUS$25,000 at the low end and AUS$55,000 at the high end.

Looking at those extremes, the university charging international undergraduate students AUS$25,000 – the first dot on the graph – reduced its fees by 17% to claim a position around value for money. Not coincidentally, this university falls under the “potential to grow” grouping according to MD111 calculations. By contrast, in an unprecedented move, four universities have set their international undergraduate fees at or higher than $50,000 in 2025. As you might already have guessed, those are large universities that are growth-constrained under MD111. Those two examples highlight the very different pricing discussions going on in universities around Australia.

Fewer scholarships

The height of scholarship-giving to international students was 2021, when Australian universities collectively offered 632 scholarship programmes to international students. In 2025, this fell to 494, lower even than in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic. As Mr Ramirez notes, this decline is understandable especially when it comes to growth-constrained universities, because scholarships tend to boost international student enrolments. More broadly, many Australian universities are facing financial challenges, so that is also part of the decline.
 
Country-specific scholarships are also much less common in 2025. This year, 65% of Australian universities offer at least one country-specific scholarship. Last year, it was 70%. In 2024, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Vietnam were the countries in which the most scholarships were offered. In 2025, it was Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia in the top four. India has been bumped to number five, and Sri Lanka to number six. Other top ten countries, Nepal and Pakistan, have been bumped out of that tier. This reflects to a large part the countries in which visas for Australia are most likely to be rejected.

The profound effect of government policies

The disruption created by the implementation of new government policies is clearly adding challenges to the already-complex decisions that Australian universities make when setting pricing strategy for international students. These policies – and the uncertainty around them – are creating additional considerations for all Australian universities re: pricing, but they are especially affecting for the 14 universities that Ministerial Direction 111 has identified as needing to curb new international enrolments.

For additional background, please see: