Category: Education

Ahead of a snap general election called for 4 July 2024, and after months of speculation, a joint news release from the Home Office and Department of Education confirms that the UK’s current policy setting for post-study work rights (the Graduate Route) will remain in place. It makes clear as well, however, that the government intends to take further steps “to ensure the UK’s world-leading higher education sector is used for education, not as a gateway to immigration,” adding that:

“New proposals will further crackdown on student visas, ensuring only genuine students can come to the UK; [the Graduate] Route will be kept under review.”

The proposals are intended “to ensure the UK’s world-leading higher education sector is used for education, not as a gateway to immigration,” and the release warns that “options to go further remain under consideration.”

More specifically, the “crackdown” being proposed is especially directed at agents:

“The proposals would regulate the recruitment of international students, cracking down on rogue recruitment agents who encourage people to apply to British universities by mandating universities to sign up to a stringent framework for agents.”

The proposals include:

• Tougher compliance standards for institutions recruiting international students, and “institutions who then fail to pass our visa checks, enrol or complete their courses, will risk losing their sponsor licence”;
• Universities being required to commit to a quality assurance framework for agents;
• An increase in financial maintenance requirements “so international students will have to prove their financial self-sufficiency”;
• A review of English language assessments “with the objective of standardising independent assessments, ensuring all international students are equipped with the skills to understand their course materials – or they shouldn’t expect a place at a UK university”;
• Restrictions on remote delivery to “ensure all overseas students are predominantly undertaking face-to-face courses.”

No further detail on the proposed measures has yet been provided.

Applications down by almost a quarter in the first four months of 2024

Home Secretary, James Cleverly, announced that new measures introduced to reduce migration to the UK – including the removal of most student dependants’ right to accompany students to the UK – have already driven down student visa applications by almost a quarter in the first four months of 2024:  

“We have taken decisive and necessary action to deliver the largest cut in legal migration in our country’s history. Applications are already falling sharply, down by almost a quarter on key routes in the first four months of this year compared to last, with the full impact of our package still to be seen.”

But he stressed the need to do more:

“But we must go further to make sure our immigration routes aren’t abused. That’s why we are cracking down on rogue international agents and, building on work across government, to ensure international students are coming here to study, not work.”

Education Secretary, Gillian Keegan, said the proposals are aimed at making sure there is a balance between attracting international students to UK universities and controlling immigration:

“I am proud that British universities have a fantastic reputation both at home and abroad, and it is testament to the quality of education they offer that so many people aspire to study in this country.  

It is right that we strike the balance between controlling immigration and making sure the UK remains the ‘go to’ place for students around the world, supporting our brilliant universities and enabling the best and brightest to study here.”

The Graduate Route: safe so far but still “under review”

Last week the government received the findings of the Migration Advisory Committee’s (MAC) “rapid review” of the Graduate Route (which provides international students with 2-3-year post-study work rights). The MAC concluded that the Route has not been widely abused and recommended that the Route not be restricted, especially given the pronounced impact that the dependant’s ban is having on student applications and by extension on the higher education sector.

“Recent migration changes have already delivered the intended result of reducing international student numbers, with 9 in 10 member universities responding to our May survey reporting a decline in international applications. Any further restrictions would have had severe implications for the higher education sector and the economy.”

The government has not made any changes to the Route since the MAC recommendation, which has been welcomed by leaders in the international education sector including Vivienne Stern, Chief Executive of Universities UK. However, the government release hints that changes are not being ruled out in the future. The Home Office notes that the Migration Advisory Committee’s finding that some agents are “overselling” UK education and links this finding to a concern about the Graduate Route:

“The MAC warned that rogue recruitment agents pose a threat to the integrity of our immigration system, with poor practices exploiting student and graduate visa holders mis-sold UK higher education. Since migrants on the student route transition directly to the Graduate route, immediate action is necessary.….The government also remains concerned that the route is not attracting the highest earners who contribute to our economy.”

From BUILA to Universities UK to The Russell Group, there was unanimous relief that the Graduate Route remains in place as well as a stated commitment to working with the government on stricter agent regulation. Dr Tim Bradshaw, Chief Executive of the Russell Group, said:

“We welcome the news that the Graduate Route remains in place. As recognised by the MAC’s recent report, international students bring huge value to our universities, our communities and our economy. The actions that Government has laid out today, such as additional regulations on agents, will help to protect the quality and integrity of the UK’s education offer and we are ready to work with Government and colleagues across the sector to implement these. Stability is now needed in student migration policy to enable universities to plan for a long-term, sustainable future and protect quality and choice for all students.”

For additional background, please see:

The UK’s English Language Teaching (ELT) sector continued its post-pandemic recovery last year, enrolling more students and delivering a higher volume of student weeks in 2023 than in the previous three years.

English UK, the national membership association of accredited English-language teaching centres, has released its annual report, compiled by its research partner BONARD. Data provided by member centres shows that student numbers increased to 76% of 2019 levels and student weeks to 71%. The year-on-year enrolment increase for full-time, face-to-face students was 52%, and student weeks increased by 19%.

More than 300 English UK member centres provided data for the report, and collectively in 2023 they:

• Taught 360,517 students;
• Delivered 1,153,870 student weeks (marking the first time that total weeks exceeded 1 million since 2019).

The proportion of students who were juniors (under 18) in 2023 was the highest ever: 60% compared to less than half in 2022 and 54% in 2019.

Jodie Gray, chief executive of English UK, said:

“It’s great to have better news in this year’s student statistics. The story of 2023 is one of promising but steady recovery. Global ELT is a maturing industry, with student numbers static or falling. It’s a zero-sum game. Destinations compete for a stable or shrinking pool of students. One destination’s gain is another’s loss.

The government can make a huge difference to our success, as recent clampdowns in competitor markets have demonstrated. Right now, the UK’s approach is more welcoming than that in some of our competitor destinations. Canada and Australia are currently grappling with high visa refusal rates and caps on international student numbers.

These statistics not only help English UK members take individual marketing decisions but also demonstrate how and why targeted government support is needed.”

Private sector is recovering much faster than state sector

English UK notes that “recovery was more evenly distributed than in 2022, with twice as many English UK members exceeding their 2019 student weeks – 26% compared with 13%.” However, there was a marked difference in the degree of recovery experienced by private and state sub-sectors.

Private providers compose the vast majority (about 90%) of English UK’s membership, and they taught 55% more students in 2023 versus 2022 and delivered 24% more weeks. By contrast, state sector members taught 20% fewer students, and their student weeks decreased by 28%. In 2023, state sector weeks reached only 27% of what they were before the pandemic. English UK says that part of the issue lies with structural changes, and it is working with state sector “to maximise their potential for growth.

State sector highlights from the report include:

• Junior students accounted for the highest share ever of enrolments (10%).
• Students stayed in their courses for a relatively short period compared with other years (8.4 weeks on average).
• China remained the top market, with 29% of student weeks, followed by Saudi Arabia (11%), Japan (8%), Romania (7%), and Kuwait.

Private sector highlights include:

• Junior students made up 61% of all enrolments, up from 51% in 2022.
• Students stayed on average for 3.2 weeks (on par with 2019).
• Italy displaced Saudi Arabia as the top market and accounted for 16% of student weeks (up 58%), followed by Saudi Arabia (up 2%), and then Spain (up 27%).

The following graphic shows the dramatic variation in junior enrolments for private sector members over time.

Growth markets

The fastest-growing markets for the UK’s ELT centres were Peru (up 188%), Taiwan (up 124%), and Colombia (up 108%). In addition, notes English UK, “Italy rose 57%, helped by the Estate INPSieme Estero scholarship scheme.”

In 2023, the EU contributed the largest share of students (59% versus 41% for non-EU countries), while non-EU countries were responsible for the most weeks (64% versus 36% for EU countries).

English UK calls on government to do more to support the sector

Earlier in May, and leading up to the country’s just-announced general election on 4 July 2024, English UK issued a manifesto with six recommendations for the UK government. The manifesto argues that “UK ELT could contribute so much more to the UK’s economy, healthcare system and international relations with just a few small policy changes which only a government can make.”

The association’s recommendations for government are:

• Expand career-enhancing travel opportunities for young people by expanding the Youth Mobility Scheme.
• Legalise short work placements on all ELT courses.
• Extend ID card travel for groups of under-18s from the EU.
• Recognise UK ELT’s accreditation scheme for immigration purposes.
• Increase government marketing support for UK ELT.
• Increase rent-a-room relief to help address our capacity challenge.

Ms Gray added:

“We believe all of our six recommendations could be adopted by any political party without major cost or compromise, and we will use these to campaign into the general election and beyond.”

For additional background, please see:

Ghana’s ascent as one of the most important emerging student markets for universities recruiting overseas is well illustrated by recent enrolment growth in leading destinations. For example:

• Ghana made it into Canada’s Top 20 in 2023, with enrolment gains of 167% over 2022 – and 350% since 2019. There were 9,235 Ghanaian students in Canadian education institutions in 2023, up from just over 2,000 in 2019.

• In the US, according to the IIE’s 2022/23 Open Doors report, Ghana entered the Top 25 higher education sending markets for the first time ever (6,470), joining Nigeria (17,640) as the other Sub-Saharan African country in this top tier. Ghana is also now the 14th largest source of international graduate students for US institutions. The number of Ghanaian students in the US grew by 32% between 2021/22 and 2022/23 – an all-time high.

• Ghanaian student numbers were up by 47% y-o-y in the UK in 2021/22 for a total of 3,925, following a 22% increase the previous year.

Globally, there are at least 20,000 Ghanaian students abroad this year.

Market fundamentals are strong, as is demand for study abroad

Ghana is one of Africa’s most stable democracies. Peaceful transfers of power are the norm; a coup d’état hasn’t occurred since the 1990s. The president serves as both the head of state and head of government and the constitution permits two four-year terms of holding office. The country scores well on the Freedom House’s Global Freedom Index (whose methodology includes factors such as freedom of expression and equality before the law). But Freedom House also considers discrimination against women and especially those identifying as LGBTQ a persistent issue in Ghana.

More than half of the population of almost 35 million is under the age of 25, and youth in the country benefit from a no-tuition policy for public primary and secondary education. English is the official language, and Ghanaians rank 4th in Africa and 34th in the world on the EF English Proficiency Index. This, paired with Ghanaians’ tendency to study hard to increase their chance of being accepted to universities abroad, makes Ghanaian students generally excellent candidates for foreign bachelor’s and graduate programmes abroad.

That said, Ghana is mostly a graduate market. In a recent IDP Connect webinar focusing on Nigeria and Ghana, Marie Stella Tsetse, IDP’s country manager for Ghana, noted that most Ghanaians obtain their bachelor’s from a university in the country and then look for graduate opportunities abroad. However, she also said that the demand for foreign education is so strong that if a Ghanaian bachelor’s student did not receive funding for study abroad the first year they applied for it, they would try one or two more times more while enrolled in a Ghanaian institution. If successful in obtaining funding through one of those successive attempts, many students would drop their studies in Ghana – even if they were in their second or third year of their bachelor’s – and start again in their first year at a foreign institution.

Ms Tsetse explained that Ghanaian families prioritise education and are ever-more interested in sending their children abroad. Students tend to invest in private tutoring to increase their score on admission tests such as the SAT and their chances of receiving a scholarship.

The following IDP slide shows top areas of demand for Ghanaian students looking at studying in the US

Need for scholarships is higher than usual

Scholarships are especially important for Ghanaian students at the moment. High inflation is a problem, but even more, the currency (the cedi) is in serious trouble against the US dollar. Bloomberg described it as a “record-breaking weakening” this month. Students are looking for 50%-100% of their tuition, living costs, and flights to be covered – with 100% necessary for many.

Unfortunately, said Ms Ttetse, students may find it more difficult this year to obtain a scholarship from the Ghanaian government. This is because the current government may have little left in its coffers as it nears the end of its eight-year term (the election is scheduled for 7 December). Ms Tsetse explained that a trend is for a new government to begin spending more freely by its second year in power. In the meantime, institutions may want to establish or expand targeted scholarships for Ghanaian students to be competitive in a country where so many universities are increasing their presence.

Visa issues are a significant barrier

Ms Tsetse noted that many Ghanaian students are thwarted in their aim of studying in the US due to their visas being rejected. Many of those applying to Canadian institutions also encounter visa issues, though as the chart below from ApplyBoard shows, visa approvals have been increasing significantly for Ghanaians.

Institutions would be well advised to increase the support they provide to Ghanaian applicants in terms of submitting complete visa applications, meeting deadlines, and troubleshooting in general. Ms Tsetse suggested that such supports should happen early in the recruiting cycle, as students want to be assured of funding at least six months before application deadlines.

Because of the cedi’s fall against the US dollar (and also other world currencies), budgetary counselling and help with locating financial aid/scholarships and affordable accommodation are also increasingly important services to provide to Ghanaian students.

For additional background, please see:

A new analysis from international research firm HolonIQ sets out four future growth scenarios for foreign enrolment in the United States over the next decade. Ranging from what amounts to “essentially flat” to “more than double,” the growth trajectories are based on detailed modelling of global student flows, with adjustments for national policies regarding international students, capacity, competition, and the shifting geopolitical context.

The context for those US-specific projections is HolonIQ’s forecast that the number of students enrolled in higher education abroad will reach as high as 9 million by 2030, up from more than 6 million today. That seems like a big jump, and it is, but it also relies on a relatively low compound annual growth rate for this decade, compared to what has been recorded for the previous five decades.

Against that backdrop, the analysis projects that foreign enrolment in the US will rise from just over 1 million students today to somewhere between 1.3 million (the most conservative scenario) and 2.8 million (the most aggressive projection) by 2034. The distance between those two ends of the forecast range relies on the presence (or absence) of major “geopolitical shocks,” significant policy shifts, and, more specifically to the US, more welcoming policies for foreign students as well as the establishment of a coordinated national strategy for international education.

Introducing the new projections this week, HolonIQ CEO Patrick Brothers said, “To put those numbers into context, you see there that historically the fastest-growing period for the US was 8.1% [compound annual growth rate] for the period 2012 to 2016. We’ve seen a really significant ramp in the last two years as the US has picked up from that low point post-pandemic…so there are some enormous moves happening in the prior-to years. If anything, we’ll see another large bump as we had into 2024, but just under 5% [compound annual growth rate through 2034] is our most likely growth position.”

Where will the students come from?

The forecast model sees India as a major driver of continuing growth for foreign enrolment in the US. As we reported late last year, “India was the main driver of growth [for the US in 2022/23], sending 35% more students (268,923) than in the previous year. China remains the top market (289,526), but by the slimmest of margins, and was flat in terms of growth (-0.2%).”

Those contrasting trends for India and China reflect in the HolonIQ analysis as well, which anticipates that India will account for roughly a third of all international enrolments in the US by 2030, with Chinese students making up nearly another quarter.

Alongside those major sending countries, several other emerging markets – for which we are already seeing significant year-over-year growth in the US – are expected to contribute substantially to the overall growth of America’s foreign enrolment through 2030. They include Vietnam (projected to be the #4 sending market by 2030), Nigeria (the projected #5), Bangladesh (the projected #6), Nepal (the projected #8), Brazil (#10), and Mexico (#11).

For additional background, please see:

The annual survey of The Japan Association of Overseas Studies (JAOS) has just been released. This year’s survey was conducted in April 2024 and it again provides a baseline indicator of outbound mobility from Japan based on responses from a sample of 40 JAOS member-agencies.

The survey finds that study abroad numbers recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic volumes in 2023, driven by a 218% year-over-year increase from 2022. Overall, foreign study by Japanese students is now overwhelmingly undertaken in person with the number of online students falling dramatically over the last three years. The report notes that, “While offline study abroad is on the rise, the number of Japanese students taking online study abroad courses has decreased significantly from 4,799 in the previous year to 1,568, down from approximately 10,000 in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The United States, Australia, and Canada remain the top three choices for Japanese students, but the survey indicates that Asian destinations are quickly gaining in popularly as well. The number of Japanese students studying within Asia reached an all-time high in 2023. And while Asia was the third most-popular destination region last year, after North America and Oceania, Japanese enrolments across Asia now surpass pre-COVID levels (at 112% of 2019 levels in 2023).

Along with The Philippines, other quickly growing destinations for Japanese students within Asia include South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan. JAOS adds that, “[Korea] has rapidly improved its relations with Japan since last year and has gained global attention through K POP, K dramas, and movies. Additionally, Malaysia and Taiwan, which have been known as new destinations for Japanese students to study abroad for degree programmes due to the depreciation of the yen and inflation in countries like the United States and Australia, have also increased in popularity.”

Nearly three in four of the Japanese students (74%) reported by JAOS survey respondents go abroad for language study programmes of less than three months. Another 12% also go for language studies, but for three months or more. Of the remaining, 14%, roughly half (7%) go abroad for high school studies, with the balance pursuing a mix of vocational, volunteer/internship programmes, or degree studies.

The road to 500,000

At a March 2023 meeting of the Council for the Creation of Future Education, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida set some ambitious targets for student mobility, both in and out of the country. The Prime Minister said at the time, “We will formulate a New Plan on Overseas Student Dispatch and Foreign Student Acceptance, which includes not only the acceptance of international students, but also the overseas dispatch of Japanese students and others, replacing the current 300,000 Foreign Students Plan. Based on today’s discussion, I request the members to establish new specific indicators, such as achieving the overseas dispatch of 500,000 Japanese students and acceptance of 400,000 foreign students by 2033, in the plan.”

JAOS adds that, “With the number of Japanese study abroad students at 220,000 as of 2019, the 500K target aims to more than double the number of Japanese study abroad students in about 10 years.”

Partly with that ambitious goal in mind, JAOS projects that the upward trend reported for 2023 will continue through 2024 and after. The association based that optimistic projection on the following factors, “(1) The government’s push to promote study abroad in order to achieve the 2033 500K target, along with an increase in budgetary allocations, (2) an increase in support for study abroad costs through scholarships and support for university and high school organised study abroad programmes, (3) due to the industry needs in future major projects such as the Osaka Expo 2025, the integrated resorts scheduled to open in 2030, and the entry of foreign hotel chains into Japan in anticipation of inbound demand, there is a high demand for highly specialized global talent, and (4) an increase in the choice of study abroad destinations to affordable options such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Korea, and Malta.”

For additional background, please see:

Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen check in on how foreign exchange trends are impacting the cost of study abroad this year, and what the prospects of a widening TikTok ban might mean for international student recruitment.

This month’s episode features a conversation – recorded live at ICEF North America in Niagara Falls, Canada – about how new policy settings in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom are impacting student mobility patterns this year. Craig and Martijn are joined by Victoria Martin, Chief Commercial and Compliance Officer for Global University Systems Canada and Robin Garcha, Partnerships Director with IDP Connect.

We conclude with a closer look at The Philippines as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.