Category: Education

The last time we looked in on the distribution of nationalities in four top study destinations, we reported that in 2019 – i.e., just before the pandemic – Australia (70%) and Canada (67%) were most reliant on their Top 5 student source countries, the UK was the least (45%), and the US (63%) held the middle ground.

What has happened in the years since? How do other destinations compare? We look at recent foreign enrolment figures to find out.

Australia: Top 5 markets in 2023

1. China: 166,420
2. India: 126,490
3. Nepal: 62,380
4. Colombia: 39,725
5. Philippines: 35,590

Of the 786,890 international students enrolled across education sectors in Australia in 2023, just over half of foreign students (55%) were from Top 5 sending countries. This is a marked decrease from Australia’s 70% reliance in 2019.

Canada: Top 5 Markets in 2023

1. India: 427,085
2. China: 101,150
3. Philippines: 48,870
4. Nigeria: 45,965
5. France: 26,980

The total international student population in Canada across sectors in 2023 was 1,040,985. The share of Top 5 sending countries was 62% – down from 67% in 2019.

UK: Top 5 markets in 2022/23

1. India 173,190
2. China: 154,260
3. Nigeria: 72,355
4. Pakistan: 34,690
5. US: 22,540

Students from the UK’s Top 5 sending markets accounted for 60% of the 758,855 international students enrolled in UK universities in 2022/23 – up significantly from 45% in 2019.

US: Top 5 markets in 2023

1. China: 289,525
2. India: 268,925
3. South Korea: 43,845
4. Canada: 27,875
5. Vietnam: 21,900

There were 1,057,190 international students in US colleges and universities in 2022/23. Students from the Top 5 sending markets accounted for 62% of the total international student population – essentially stable since 2019 (63%).

Other destinations are less dependent on the Top 5

As you can see in the table below, less than half of foreign students in HE in Ireland, France, and Germany are from those destinations’ Top 5 markets. In France and Germany, the Top 5 markets represent only 34% and 35%, respectively, of all international students.

About 7 in 10 students in the “Big Four” are from Top 10 markets

Drilling further into the data, we see more consistency across Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US regarding the proportion of students from Top 10 markets. In this exercise, the UK emerges as the least reliant on Top 10 countries (68%) based on 2022/23 data, but only by a small margin. In Canada, 72% of international students were from the Top 10 sending countries in 2023, while in the US and Australia, the proportions were 70% and 71% in 2023, respectively.

And what of China and India?

Chinese and Indian students are integral to the viability of international education sectors across leading destinations. In 2023, more than half of international students in Canada and the US were from India or China, and Canada is particularly reliant on Indian students (41%).

• Australia: China (21%) + India (16%) = 37%
• Canada: India (41%) + China (10%) = 51%
• UK: India (23%) + China (20%) = 43%
• US: China (27%) + India (25%) = 52%

Diversification under pressure

The most recent international education strategies published by the Australian and Canadian governments identify diversification of student source markets as a top goal. As the data profiled in this article show, Australian and Canadian institutions made significant progress from 2019 to 2023 towards that goal, supported by welcoming immigration policies.

Time will tell whether educators in those countries, as well as the UK, can continue to distribute their foreign enrolment across an expanded list of countries given new rules affecting their recruitment activities.

Earlier this year, it became clear that some Australian institutions were adjusting their recruitment targets because:

1. Certain student source countries are associated with a high rate of visa refusal.
2. Institutions face penalties if they extend too many offers of admission to students who are then deemed to be unsuitable by immigration officials.

Several Australian institutions rescinded offers of admission to students they believed would be refused a visa, while others limited the list of countries from which students could apply.

In 2024, some of the emerging markets that contributed the most to diversity in Australia and Canada (e.g., Nigeria, Nepal, Pakistan) are the ones most challenged by new rules in 2024. For example, the following screen shot from the Sydney Morning Herald shows that countries experiencing the lowest visa approval rates up till April 2024 include Pakistan, India, and Nepal – all Top 10 markets for Australian educators.

In Canada, the average study permit approval rate for international students fell from 55% in 2022 to 50% between January and April 2024. It dropped to 32% for Ghanaian students (12 percentage points lower than in 2023) and to 16% for Nigerian students (16 percentage points lower). Still, University World News reports that IRCC data for the first half of 2024 indicate that:

“Students from Ghana will be the largest contingent after India: 3,329 study permits have already been issued. Students from Nigeria will likely be the second largest contingent after India as 3,028 permits have already been issued. Chinese students will likely make up the third largest contingent after India while the students from the Philippines are likely to be the fourth largest contingent.”

If this prediction holds true, this could lead to a significant reshaping of Canada’s international student population. In 2023, for example, Ghana was Canada’s 20th top student source country.

For additional background, please see:

Despite vigorous opposition by Australia’s international education stakeholders to the prospect of a cap on foreign student numbers, the Australian government today announced that:

“Subject to the passage of legislation before the Parliament, [the government] will set a National Planning Level (NPL) for new international student commencements of 270,000 for calendar year 2025.”

The NPL – i.e., a cap on new international students coming to Australia – will be allocated across the higher education and vocational education sectors and its aim is to constrain international commencements to pre-pandemic levels. The government says the cap will help to restore the social licence of the industry and ensure that growth is better managed.
 
The Koala News clarifies what is meant by a “new international student commencement”: “An international student will count as a new overseas student commencement when they are onshore and start their first non-exempt course at their first provider. This includes each time the student changes into a non-exempt course at a different provider.” (Editor’s note: New rules around “visa hopping” mean that there will only be a small number of students who are eligible to change courses.)

Some sub-sectors will be excluded from the NPL:

• Schools
• Higher degree by research programmes
• Standalone English-language providers (ELICOS)
• Non-award programmes

Also excluded from the cap are “Australian Government-sponsored scholars, students that are part of an Australian transnational education arrangement or twinning arrangement, key partner foreign government scholarship holders, and students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste.”

Assuming that the pending legislative amendments are passed by the Australian parliament, the NPL will come into effect in January 2025.

How will the cap be distributed?

Just over half of the new international students anticipated under the cap will enrol in public universities, with 145,000 international commencements in 2025 earmarked for this sub-sector. This overall cap is said to be roughly equivalent to the number of higher education commencements in 2023. However, a government media release explains, “[Individual institutional caps] will be outlined in an International Student Profile (ISP). Publicly funded universities have been provided with their indicative ISPs…In developing ISPs, a number of factors have been considered based on data provided by universities, including recent levels of new international student commencements and the concentration of international enrolments in their onshore student cohorts.”

In other words, individual universities with higher concentrations of foreign students, or that have grown more quickly in recent years, could receive lower cap allocations. While those with lower proportions of international enrolment may receive additional student spaces under the NPL.

Otherwise, about 30,000 of the student spaces available under the cap will be given to other universities and non-university providers and about 95,000 will go to the VET sector. The government adds: “Providers with a higher ratio of international students will receive a lower allocation, encouraging them to diversify their student base.”

What does the cap replace?

Speaking at the AFR Higher Education Summit in Sydney last week, Minister of Education Jason Clare confirmed that the forthcoming NPL will replace Ministerial Directive 107, an immigration framework that classified Australian institutions into different risk levels and offered preferential treatment to “low-risk” institutions. The directive also triggered a significant spike in visa rejection rates for students from some countries.

“Ministerial Direction 107 categorises universities into three different categories and affects the speed at which your visas are processed based on risk,” said Minister Clare at the AFR Summit. “It means that some universities have more students today than they had last year. It means a number of universities have significantly less. It also means that the time it’s taken to process a visa for a university has taken longer in the case of universities that are in that second and third category…A lot of universities have made the point to me that that’s affected their bottom line. It’s affected the way international students see us as a country, if it’s taken a long time to get a visa or they’ve been rejected, and I’ve sought a better way to provide more certainty for them about the number of students they can educate each year and process those visas up to that level quicker.”

In a statement issued today, Universities Australia Chair Professor David Lloyd puts some key numbers on that impact, explaining that “visa grants in higher education are down 23% on last year, causing [an] AUD$4.3 billion hit to the economy and putting 14,000 jobs in our sector at risk.”

Prof Lloyd, along with other university and VET leaders, is outraged that the government sees fit to introduce the NPL following the damage inflicted by Directive 107. He writes: “Even without legislated powers to limit international student numbers, the Government has already taken a sledgehammer to the international education sector.”

Prof Lloyd points out what is at stake:

“Every dollar from overseas students is reinvested back into Australia’s universities. Having fewer students here will only widen the funding gap at a time universities need greater support.

There will also be significant flow-on effects for other sectors of the economy that rely heavily on international students.

International students accounted for more than half of Australia’s GDP growth last year, almost singlehandedly saving the nation from recession. The sector is our second biggest export behind mining, worth almost AUD$50 billion to our economy and supporting around 250,000 jobs.”

Group of Eight (Go8) Chief Executive Vicki Thomson also issued a public statement today, in which she lambastes the both the government’s Ministerial Directive 107 and the new NPL cap:

“Today the Federal Government announced that it intends recklessly to proceed with international student caps – introducing cuts to Go8 members who do the heavy lifting in research, education as well as underpinning Australia’s global reputation as a high-quality international education provider.

As such, the Group of Eight (Go8) remains implacably opposed to international student caps for the damage they will do to the sector and the nation.

We saw yesterday at the Senate inquiry that there is no economic modelling on the impact of caps, and this has not changed with today’s announcement of a National Planning Level target of 270,000 for international education. This policy was bad yesterday and it is bad today – the unexplained number gives us no comfort.

What has changed is the Government today trying to steamroll the sector into accepting detailed caps before a clearly sceptical Senate has passed judgement on the ill-conceived legislation that enables these enrolment limits.

In doing so, the Government has confused the issues even further and increased the distrust of the sector in its capability to manage this vital AUD$48 billion export industry.

The Government has essentially responded to one reckless policy folly, Ministerial Direction 107, with another – punishing the Universities that have proven to be the most popular for the very best global students.

Tellingly, the Minister also confirmed that Ministerial Direction 107 has significantly damaged the global reputation of Australia’s international education sector. The introduction of caps will compound this damage.”

Reuters reports that The University of Melbourne has received its indicative cap and is studying its financial implications. The university’s vice-chancellor, Professor Duncan Maskell, said: “The cap on international students will have detrimental consequences for our University, the higher education sector generally, and the nation for years to come.”

For additional background, please see:

There was a cabinet shuffle in the Canadian province of Ontario on 19 August 2024 – one effect of which was to see the then-Minister of Colleges and Universities Jill Dunlop moved to a new post as Minister of Education. Before departing her post-secondary education portfolio, however, Minister Dunlop issued an unexpected directive to the province’s 24 public-supported post-secondary colleges.

In a memo which was also sent on 19 August, the minister wrote, “Effective immediately, I am placing a moratorium on all new college international activities.” She added that while the moratorium remains in effect, “Colleges must not enter into any new contracts or arrangements related to the delivery of postsecondary education and training outside of Canada, whether directly or through an existing subsidiary corporation. this includes the establishment of branch campuses, partnerships/curriculum licensing agreements, curriculum development arrangements, corporate training contracts, and the incorporation of new subsidiaries.”

In effect, the moratorium places a ban on any new transnational education (TNE) initiatives for Ontario colleges. Minister Dunlop noted as well that this new restriction does not pertain to student recruitment, nor to research activities across international borders. “Student recruitment and research partnerships are not included [in the ban], and existing international activities can continue but shall not expand.”

The moratorium on the TNE partnerships and projects will now remain in place pending a formal review of existing ministry guidance in this area. The review will specifically focus on the Entrepreneurial Activities Minister’s Binding Policy Directive. That guidance has been in place for more than 20 years, and it essentially sets out the scope for, and basis under which, an Ontario college may engage in revenue-generating activities outside of its core programmes and services, including international partnerships and contracts and the range of TNE activities detailed in Minister Dunlop’s memo.

No other detail has yet been provided on the review process, except that “Given the ministry’s planned engagement with the [Ontario college] sector on other priorities, engagement on the [Binding Policy Directive review] will likely take place in early 2025; further information will be shared in the coming months.”

In other words, the ban on new or expanded TNE activity will remain in place for the next six months if not more.

It remains unclear why Minister Dunlop put the moratorium in place, and the move is especially mystifying given the current challenges facing all Canadian institutions and schools this year in the wake of a number of new policy settings. Those include a cap on foreign enrolment, changes in post-study work rights, new rules around accompanying dependants of international students, and rising rejection rates for study permit applicants. Colleges, in Ontario and elsewhere, have been especially hard hit, as evidenced by a growing number of reports of programme cuts and cancellations as well as staff reductions at colleges throughout the province.

Speaking to the Toronto Star this week, Colleges Ontario CEO Marketa Evans said, “These entrepreneurial initiatives help offset costs to ensure that college programs stay open for Ontarians. We at Colleges Ontario are increasingly concerned about the strength of the sector and its ability to continue to deliver for Ontarians.”

The only hint as to the government’s intent appears in this passage in Minister Dunlop’s memo: “The ministry is taking action to stabilise Ontario’s colleges and universities by introducing a suite of measures to ensure the continued viability of the postsecondary education system. While this work is ongoing, it is essential that colleges focus on their core mandate of delivering postsecondary education and training to meet the needs of Ontarians and support the economic and social development of their local communities.”

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province and is home to roughly 40% of the Canadian population. Similarly, just over four in ten foreign students in Canada study in Ontario.

For additional background, please see:

Prospective international students considering Ireland as a study abroad destination now have added incentive: they will know that Irish institutions have met the robust requirements to achieve the TrustEd Ireland mark of quality assurance.

This new designation means that an Irish institution has met “national standards to ensure a high-quality experience for international students, from enrolment to completion of their programme of education and training.”

Minister for Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science Patrick O’Donovan announced that TrustEd Ireland will open for applications in September 2024. He explained the significance of the mark:

“The introduction of TrustEd Ireland is a significant milestone in our mission to position Ireland as a destination of choice for international learners, researchers and innovators. [It] will build on and enhance the existing quality assurance infrastructures in higher education. The mark will be transformative for the English language education sector in Ireland, which will be placed on a statutory footing for the first time.”

The mark will be administered and authorised by the state agency Quality and Qualifications Ireland (QQI).

TrustEd Ireland is bolstered by new statutory processes including:

• “Two Codes of Practice, one for higher education providers and one for English language education providers, who will demonstrate compliance with the relevant code criteria;
• A ‘due diligence’ evaluation process to examine the capacity and capability of private/independent education providers to quality assure and deliver education programmes;
• A new statutory Learner Protection Fund and scheme to protect learners enrolled with private/independent higher education and English language education providers.”

New quality assurance system complements Ireland’s growing popularity

The introduction of the TrustEd Ireland mark occurs at a time when more of the world’s prospective students are evaluating alternative destinations. Ireland has become an increasingly popular destination for higher education and English-language learning.

If we look around the world, most English-language sectors have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels of business. That is not the case for Ireland. Student weeks and numbers have surpassed volumes in 2019 and providers are hiring more staff.

Record-high foreign enrolments also characterise the Irish higher education sector, with 35,140 international students enrolled in the 2022/23 academic year. This represents year-over-year growth of just under 11% and 18% growth since 2019.

Minister O’Donovan noted:

“TrustEd Ireland will be one of the most robust schemes for the regulation of international education in existence globally. It will be the only statutory English language education inspection scheme in the world that includes a due diligence evaluation, and this evaluation will be rigorous.

The quality assurance systems in place to support learners, coupled with the mandatory requirement for education providers to participate in the new statutory Learner Protection Fund, will serve as a message to international learners that the education experience they will receive in Ireland is secure, of the highest quality and globally recognised.”

TrustEd Ireland will be officially launched at an event on 25 September.

For additional background, please see:

If you look at how the international education sector has been covered in the mainstream media this year, you’ll see that a good deal of attention has been paid to:

• The impact of international students on affordable housing supply and healthcare capacity;
• Debates about the wisdom of curbing the inbound flow of new international students as a means of lowering net migration.

It is less common to see headlines about the cultural and economic value of international students. This is curious given that when a government imposes greater restrictions on schools and universities’ ability to recruit overseas, it is courting:

• Tremendous revenue losses that may be felt not just in the education sector, but also across many additional industries (e.g., tourism, hospitality, and consumer goods). When Phil Honeywood listed the numerous contributions of international students to Australia earlier this year, he made the point that these contributions include areas we sometimes don’t even consider. “Crucially,” he said, “[international students] buy new bedding when they arrive here.”

• A decline in competitive, scientific, and innovative potential. ApplyBoard, for example, points to the US as an example of just how much international students can drive a national economy forward: “In 2018, there were 21 billion-dollar US startups with a founder that first came to the US as an international student … fast forward to 2022, and the number of billion-dollar startups with an international student founder has exploded to 143.”

How carefully have governments considered the impact of fewer international students?

As we speak, tens of thousands of prospective international students are changing their study abroad plans as a result of new immigration policies in Australia, Canada, France, and the UK – not to mention growing anti-immigrant sentiment in some other European countries. The volume of new migrants entering those leading destinations will almost certainly decline – which is the stated goal of the policies. But at what cost?

Here’s a roundup of recent assessments of international students’ contributions in Australia, Canada, and the UK.

Australia

An analysis by National Australia Bank (NAB) found that spending by international students accounted for more than half of the country’s 1.5 per cent GDP growth in 2023. NAB economists write: “The 0.8 per cent boost helped Australia’s economy avoid two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth – steering it away from a technical recession. But with student visa approvals falling, that contribution is expected to ease.”

Similarly, as reported in Times Higher Education, Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black has warned of the potential damage a significant limit on international student numbers could inflict on the Australian economy. He wrote in the Australian Financial Review:

“We are playing with Australia’s fourth largest export at a time when our economy is on a knife’s edge. International students accounted for almost a quarter of all GDP [gross domestic product] growth over the year to March 2024. The sector was worth AUD$48 billion (US$32.4 billion) in 2023 and employed over 200,000 people. It’s 48 billion reasons to think twice before we cut too hard.”

According to high-level government sources informing an exclusive report published by the Australian Financial Review in early-August 2024, the government is planning to impose overseas enrolment caps for universities on 1 January 2025. Overseas enrolments are expected to be limited to 40% of universities’ total enrolments for two years. The enrolment cap would follow other immigration legislation that is already significantly dampening student demand for Australia.

Canada

Global Affairs Canada (GAC) has determined that the direct and indirect GDP contribution of international students was roughly CDN$31 billion (US$23 billion) in 2022 – 1.2% of Canada’s GDP that year. In 2022, total spending by international students in Canada accounted for nearly a quarter (23%) of Canada’s total service exports to other countries.

Almost all this spending (97%) was by long-term international students, and much of it was by Indian students (who represent more than 4 in 10 international students in Canada). The Economic Times of India has reported that Indian students from the Punjab region alone contributed about US$8 billion to the Canadian economy in 2023.

Indian students, and students in several other important emerging markets including Nigeria, have less incentive to apply to Canadian institutions in 2024 because of a new rule barring the spouses/partners of international students enrolled in colleges and undergraduate programmes from receiving an open work permit. This rule, on its own, could remove billions of dollars from the Canadian economy given the need of so many international students to receive financial support from their partners while in Canada, especially given limits on their ability to work while studying. In March 2024, only 4,210 study permits were granted to Indian students – an 85% drop compared with March 2023.

United Kingdom

In the UK, the economic benefit of international students was estimated at £41.9 billion in 2021/22, up from £31.3 billion in 2018/19. This net contribution even accounted for an estimated £4.4 billion impact on public services. International student enrolments in UK higher education institutions rose by 12% in 2022/23 (to 758,855), suggesting that the financial contribution of international students was higher still last year.

International student applications and enrolments have been falling since the government removed the right of international student dependants (with limited exceptions) to accompany students to the UK. In July, data revealed a -16% decrease in student visa applications from July 2023 to July 2024. Mark Corbett, head of policy and networks at London Higher, said that if the trend holds all year, it could equate to almost a billion pounds in lost revenue in 2025.

In 2022/23, international students spent £11.8 billion in tuition fees at UK universities – equating to 23% of those institutions’ total fee income. This year, the UK’s University and College Union (UCU) shared a list of 66 universities in financial distress in 2024 – a proportion that represents over a third of all universities in the UK.



Lest we forget the soft power importance of international students, the Higher Education Policy Institute’s Nick Hillman writes that in 2023, 58 countries (representing more than a quarter of all countries) were headed by a former alumnus of a UK university, and 65 were led by a someone educated in the US.

For additional background, please see:

Studyportals has shared new research on LinkedIn showing that many prospective international students are setting their sights on destinations other than Australia, Canada, and the UK due to immigration policies in those countries that make it less possible and/or attractive to study there.

The Studyportals research appears in an article entitled “Winners & Losers: An update on how domestic policies in the UK, Canada, and Australia have impacted student search behaviour,” and it is based on surveys that aggregate weekly pageview data across all Studyportals websites throughout 2024. This data highlights how several destinations are faring in terms of student interest since the policy changes took effect in Australia, Canada, and the UK.

The article drills down to regional-level data for each destination and looks at student demand by country of origin, offering real-time insights into how students in key markets are responding to policy changes.

Trendlines paint a vivid picture

According to the research, demand from prospective students for on-campus bachelor or master programmes offered in Canada and the UK was rising in January 2024, but then began to nosedive in February, especially for Canada. Declines accelerated in March 2024 then stabilised briefly, but the overall trend over February-July 2024 was downward.

Australia’s popularity over this period was much lower than the UK’s or Canada’s, but the trendline was less jagged. As the figure below illustrates, compared to the first week of 2024, the UK, Australia, and Canada respectively saw drops of 25.8%, 25.1%, and 17.6% by 21 July 2024.

Will the UK see a sustained bounce in demand given a new government?

While the graphic illustrates a marked loss of student interest in these destinations over the year, the article also notes that the UK has witnessed a very recent uptick in demand, which Studyportals suggests may be due to optimism over the result of the UK elections.

The previous administration under Rishi Sunak was responsible for the removal of most dependants’ right to accompany international students to the UK and actively contemplated a restriction of the Graduate Route, which provides two-to-three years’ of work rights for international students. There is now hope among international education stakeholders in the UK and international students that the new Labour government may reverse the restrictive course of the previous government. Speaking with Indian Express, Professor Manuel Barcia, Dean of Global Engagement, University of Leeds, said that:

“Based on the signals made by the incoming government prior to the election, we can reasonably speculate that the new government will work closely with universities in an effort to rectify years of neglect under previous administrations. The new Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, is already on record saying this much.”

Regional insights

The year-over-year change in international student demand also reveals key findings at the regional level for each destination. In the UK, institutions based in England saw only a slight decline in student demand in the last 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024) compared to the previous 12 months (July 2022 to June 2023). Meanwhile, institutions in Scotland and Wales saw increases in demand during the same period.

Elsewhere, key subnational regions in Canada and Australia registered significant drops in international student demand. In Canada, the provinces of Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Quebec each experienced large declines while the states of South Australia, Western Australian, and Victoria also registered decreased demand. Only Alberta in Canada and New South Wales and the Northern Territory in Australia saw any significant increase in pageviews.

Shifting demand by origin country

Look closely at the data, and you’ll see variations in how demand for the UK, Canada, and Australia has shifted by source country. Canada, for example, has experienced a consistent decline in demand from each of its top five student markets, most notably from India (-24.5%) and Iran (-15.5%).

The story is similar for the UK, though the data offers a couple of bright spots. Nigerian demand for study in the UK has dropped significantly, falling by about half. At the same time, pageviews are up for the United States (32.4%) and Pakistan (9.7%).

Australia has witnessed a clear drop in demand from Pakistan, and less dramatic decreases from Sri Lanka and Nepal. On the other hand, Australia has benefited from a surge in demand from Bangladesh (30.5%) and to a lesser extent, India (10.7%).

Demand grows for other destinations

As increasing numbers of prospective students turn away from Australia, Canada, and the UK, which destinations are they exploring for study abroad?

The data reveals a few interesting trends. On-campus bachelor and master’s US programmes witnessed a rise in student demand from each origin country in the last 12 months. In Europe, Italy and Germany are gaining traction as alternative destinations in Europe, as the figure below makes clear.

It is important, however, to look at the granular data when considering trendlines. While Bangladeshi students also consider Italy and Germany, the data notes a drop in pageviews over the past 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. The United States saw a notable rise in demand from Indian students. In the case of Nigeria, Austrian institutions offer an appealing European alternative. Germany and the United States also saw increased interest from Nigerian students during this period.

Key takeaways

The Studyportals data suggests that immigration policies in Australia, Canada, and the UK are reshaping international student mobility in 2024 and leading into 2025. The UK may be in the midst of a modest recovery in student demand due to recent political changes, but that’s not the story in Canada and Australia, as both countries continue to experience pronounced declines in popularity.

At the same time, as the article suggests, the US – and European countries like Italy and Germany – have emerged as fresh alternatives for students from key markets in South Asia, Iran, and Nigeria.

A significant reduction in Nigerian and Indian students choosing Canada or the UK will be difficult for many institutions in those countries to adjust to. Consider that:

• Indian students composed more than 40% of Canada’s international student population in 2023, and Nigerian students accounted for 5%. If we add Iran (2%) – another declining market for Canada according to the Studyportals data – those three countries represented almost half of Canada’s international student population in 2023.
• Indian students made up 23% of all international students in the UK in 2022/23, and Nigerian students were 10% of the total. This means that a third of students in UK universities were either Nigerian or Indian in the 2022/23 academic year.

Canadian institutions may be particularly worried given that (1) they are more heavily reliant than UK universities on India and (2) demand from other top markets is also falling. The UK is at least seeing increases over 2024 from the US and Pakistan, its 4th and 5th largest student markets.

Overall, the research makes it abundantly clear that policy changes can quickly erode a destination’s competitive edge, and it suggests that students quickly respond by researching alternative destinations with more welcoming policies.

For additional background, please see:

An updated analysis of rental trends in 28 European cities finds that housing prices jumped again in Q2 2024. The International Rent Index by City is produced quarterly by rental platform HousingAnywhere, and it finds that “price increases regained their momentum” in the second quarter of 2024.

Overall, European rental rates rose 4.3% year-over-year during the quarter, which compares to an overall gain of 3.8% in the previous quarter. Room rates rose by 3.5% in Q2, apartments by 4.2%, and studio accommodations by 5.4%.

“We are right at the start of the peak season for mobile students and young professionals looking for their new home before the start of the new semester after the summer, and we see rent prices picking up pace. This means that those looking for accommodation will have to start their search early and accept some compromises,” said HousingAnywhere CEO Djordy Seelmann. “Meanwhile, with the recent elections across several European countries, we will have to wait and see if new administrations consider the expansion of the residential housing stock a sensible antidote to the pressing affordability challenge.”

The 28 cities included in the index are Amsterdam, Athens, Barcelona, Berlin, Bologna, Brussels, Budapest, Düsseldorf, Florence, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Helsinki, Köln, Lisbon, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Paris, Porto, Prague, Rome, Rotterdam, Stuttgart, The Hague, Turin, Utrecht, Valencia, and Vienna. The index collects pricing data for 79,043 properties that were listed and received interest from potential tenants on the HousingAnywhere platform in the past year.

As is usually the case in broad regional surveys, the HousingAnywhere index finds significant variations in price movement across Europe. The German and Dutch cities in the index sample remain among the most expensive on the continent, but “major Southern European cities, especially those in Italy and Spain, are gaining ground.”

Rome, for example, recorded the highest price increases for rooms (19.2% year-over-year), and Madrid the largest jump for apartments (20%).

Room rates range from highs of €1,007 or €855 in Amsterdam and Hamburg, respectively, to more affordable locations such as Athens, Valencia, or Budapest where monthly rates are reliably below €400.

Studio spaces, meanwhile, are in shorter supply and this, the report concludes, leads to more price volatility (and more rapid price gains) in this category.

Significant rent increases were also reported for apartment housing in a number of cities, notably Madrid (+20%) and The Hague (+18%), with prices ranging €1,500 to more than €2,000 in a number of cities. HousingAnywhere adds that, “Out of all the apartments analyzed, 57% were one-bedroom apartments, 31% were two-bedroom apartments, and 12% were three-bedroom apartments.”

For additional background, please see: