Category: Education

Australia will hold its next federal election on 3 May 2025. The vote looks to be hotly contested, and especially so between the current governing Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and the Liberal-National Coalition, under opposition leader Peter Dutton. Recent national polling has the two parties virtually tied less than a month out from the vote.

Immigration will figure prominently in this election cycle, including policies relating to international students. And it certainly became a prominent issue this week when a Coalition news release set out the opposition party’s proposals for international education.

“An elected Dutton Coalition Government will act immediately to reduce the number of international students in Higher Education and Vocational Education and Training (VET) as part of our plan to restore the Australian dream of home ownership and reduce pressure on the housing market,” outlines the release.

“A Dutton Coalition Government will reduce the number of new international students commencing at public universities by at least 30,000 per year compared with Labor, freeing up housing supply in major metropolitan markets.

Under our plan, there will be at most 115,000 overseas student commencements each year at publicly funded universities and at most 125,000 in the VET, private university and non-university higher education sectors.

To achieve the reduction at public universities, a percentage cap will be applied from 2026 to the share of new foreign student commencements at these institutions.

The cap is expected to be around 25% but will be determined in government with access to the latest data and in consultation with the sector. Based on 2023 enrolments data, this is expected to overwhelmingly affect metropolitan, rather than regional universities, where pressure on housing and infrastructure is most acute.

The reduction will particularly affect the Group of Eight universities, which have admitted excessive numbers of international students.”

In addition to the proposed reduction in cap levels for foreign enrolment in Australia, the Coalition announcement also sets out that:

“The Coalition will also increase the student visa application charge to AUD$5,000 for Group of Eight universities and AUD$2,500 for remaining international students. A new charge of AUD$2,500 will be introduced for students who wish to change education providers [once in Australia].

We will also conduct a rapid review into the Temporary Graduate Visas (subclass 485) to address the misuse of post-study work arrangements as a way to gain access to the Australian labour market and as a pathway to permanent migration.”

For context, the current fee to apply for an Australian study visa is AUD$1,600, a level set in July 2024, and representing at the time a 125% increase from the previous fee of AUD$710. The current fee considerably outstrips the visa fees levied by other major destinations. For example, the fee to apply for a Canadian study permit is CDN$150 (AUD$172) whereas students need US$185 (AUD$299) to apply for an F-1 study visa in the United States.

The numbers game

If we have learned anything about cap calculations over the last year, it is that they often require a rarified form of mathematical gymnastics. Industry consultant Claire Field has an excellent go at this in her analysis of the Coalition’s proposed cap limits. She points out that:

• To reduce international students to 25% of all commencements at public universities would require a reduction of just over 21,000 students from 2023 levels.
• To limit new foreign student commencements to 125,000 in VET and private higher education would require a -29% decrease from 2023 levels.

Commenting on the proposed reductions, Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy said, “Slashing student numbers by tens of thousands would take a sledgehammer to one of the nation’s biggest income generators. International education delivered more than half of Australia’s GDP growth in 2023 and almost singlehandedly kept us out of recession.”

Monash University’s Andrew Norton points out in his detailed commentary on the Coalition release that the regulatory mechanism that would permit such government-mandated enrolment caps is anything but clear.

He explains: “I stand to be corrected on migration law, but if existing provisions could be used to target private education providers I am surprised that they have not been used already…It seems likely, therefore, that an effective cap on private education providers will need legislation.

If a Coalition government tried to legislate its changes it is possible that either the Senate or (in the event of a minority Liberal government) the House of Representatives Opposition plus crossbench would block it. The politics of this issue are far from over.”

The eye-watering visa application fee

As even the few comparable fees we noted above will demonstrate, the application fee for an Australian student visa is already an outlier at AUD$1,600. The Coalition’s proposal to nearly triple that fee for Group of Eight applicants, and nearly double it for all others, would widen that already-notable competitive gap considerably.

“Australia already has the highest student visa fees in the world. The Coalition’s plan to hike it even further in this targeted way only reinforces the negative and damaging messages Australia has sent to the international education market in recent years,” said Group of Eight Chief Executive Vicki Thomson. “It beggars belief that the Coalition would single out the Go8 for extra burden – Australia’s top universities all ranked in the world’s top 100 – that attract the best and brightest minds from our region and around the world.”

“These moves would cost tens of thousands of Australians their jobs,” adds a statement from English Australia CEO Ian Aird. “They would decimate a vital sector of the Australian economy that underpins tourism, hospitality, retail, aged-care, child-care and not to mention subsidising degrees and training for Australians.”

“A student visa fee of AUD$2,500 and of AUD$5,000 for students of the largest universities would see international student numbers plummet and businesses collapse. It would cost Australia billions of dollars in export earnings and billions of dollars in local economic activity. It would damage Australia’s position in the global economy and decimate the education sector’s significant contribution to Australia’s global and regional soft diplomacy at a time when the country can least afford it.

In 2024, the Labor government increased the student visa fee by 125%. This made it the most expensive student visa in the world. As a result, applications for student visas for study in the English language sector have fallen by 50%. A further increase of 56% to AUD$2,500 would be fatal for the English language teaching sector. As the average enrolment is less than 20 weeks, this application charge would be utterly disproportionate.

An AUD$2,500 student visa fee represents a clear message that Australia does not welcome international students. It says Australia does not want them to come, study, travel and learn to love Australia. It says Australia does not want international students to come, train, and fill the ever-widening skills gaps that are supressing productivity in Australia. It says Australia does not value the billions of dollars international students spend to subsidise the facilities and courses that Australian students enjoy or the billions they spend in local shops and businesses around the country.

English Australia calls on the leader of the opposition and on the government to do more to protect Australian jobs. In 2023, there were approximately 250,000 Australians employed in international education in Australia. That’s more than double the number employed in iron ore, coal, and gas mining combined.”

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If in 2024, we looked back over the past 25 years, most of us would have identified three main events that seriously disrupted international student mobility: the SARS coronavirus that began spreading in 2002, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis that saw borders closed for months, and even years in some countries.

In 2025, we’d have to add a fourth: the global trade war spurred by US President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on about 90 countries on 2 April. The president said the tariffs are needed rectify a trade deficit between the US and nearly half the world. The nature and depth of the tariffs differ by country, but this is some of what happened on 2 April:

• China was hit the hardest – President Trump levied a 50% tariff on all Chinese goods (this rose to 125% on 9 April when China retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods);
• Traditional allies were not spared (e.g., EU countries, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea);
• Some of the world’s poorest countries (e.g., Lesotho, Myanmar) were stunned by much higher tariffs than the global average.

Since 2 April, stock markets have recorded near-record volatility and dozens of governments have lined up to negotiate and try to persuade US officials to lower or eliminate the tariffs they were handed. On 9 April, President Trump ordered a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (not China) except for a 10% “reciprocal tariff” that is being applied across the board. By the time you read this, however, things may have changed. President Trump has a tendency to announce one policy then withdraw it soon after depending on how other countries react.

It is safe to say that a global trade war has now begun, and many economists are predicting a global recession. As UK Health Minister Stephen Kinnock said to Sky News earlier this week, “We live in an incredibly deeply integrated global economy with very integrated supply chains and hugely interdependent commercial relationships, so nobody benefits from a trade war.”

Possible impacts on study abroad decision-making

The impact on international student mobility will be complex and may have some combination of the following features:

• Less demand for study in the US. On top of the risk that they could be refused a visa, see their visas revoked, or even detained if an ICE officer deems their activities or beliefs to be contrary to US interests (e.g., a Facebook post criticising President Trump), overseas students’ family income may be severely impacted by the global trade environment. Even if they still wanted to study in the US, they may no longer be able to afford to do so. Apart from tariff-related issues, students who are non-white, LGBTQ+, or belonging to another minority could be more hesitant to study in the US given President Trump’s commitment to eliminating DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) efforts and the related political climate.

• Lower volumes of students travelling for study abroad. In addition to levying tariffs, the Trump administration has drastically reduced aid funding to poor countries and paused funding of the World Health Organization (WHO). Governments of those countries may need to reallocate budget from education to healthcare (as disease prevention and control will be weakened). Education quality in source countries may suffer under these constraints, and government-funded scholarships in source countries could become less generous or even eliminated. It’s also possible, in the event of a recession, that some foreign institutions will reduce international scholarship funding.

• Diversion of demand to alternative destinations. When we think of the top fifty countries fuelling international student mobility (both source and destination markets), there are very few – possibly zero – countries that have not been targeted in some way by President Trump through his foreign policies. The president has upended traditional alliances (e.g., EU), been harsh with neighbours (Canada and Mexico), publicly lambasted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, included friendly Asian nations in steep tariffs, and withdrawn billions of dollars that once supported health and stability in African countries. He has also ratcheted up his war of words and trade war with China. The president’s disregard for scientists and scientific institutions, as well as his authoritarian leanings, are promoting leading US academics and researchers to apply to teach and live in Canada and Europe.

Just a year ago, IDP Education data showed the US gaining share of international student demand due to increasingly restrictive immigration policies in Australia, Canada, and the UK. We do not expect this trend to continue; rather, the US may join those other leading destinations in losing share of international students. Great numbers of Asian students may favour other Asian countries, including China, for study abroad, and more EU students may choose to stay within their region as well, or consider destinations in Asia or Latin America. The ascending Middle Eastern destinations of UAE and Saudi Arabia may make their way onto more students’ consideration sets, and Russia – which has been steadily increasing its international enrolment – will benefit as well.

The global order has been dramatically upset, and new alliances and power structures will emerge, which will undoubtably affect the shape of international student mobility.

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This all sets up a more challenging foreign student recruitment environment for US schools and colleges. For institutions in other destinations, there will be both opportunities (e.g., diverted student demand) and challenges (e.g., a larger pool of prospects facing renewed financial pressures). As always, communicating steadily and helpfully with partners, agents, and students is a must. Sharp market-listening skills (i.e., to hear how student demand and priorities are changing day by day by monitoring social media, local news in source countries, and talking with trusted contacts) are also key to making sense of how to adapt internationalisation and recruitment strategies.

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Taiwan is steadily increasing the number of international students it hosts in its colleges and universities. In 2024, a total of 123,190 students came from abroad for a degree in Taiwan, representing a five-year high and year-over-year growth of over 7%.

The island nation boasts about 160 colleges and universities, three-quarters of which are private. QS put eight Taiwanese public universities into its 2025 global Top 500 ranking tier.

One of those eight, National Taiwan Normal University (NNTU) – which is ranked 452nd globally by QS and which is world-renowned for its education programmes – hosted the most international students in 2024 (7,650). Next (with 6,250) was National Taiwan University, the highest ranked Taiwanese university and the only one placing in QS’s Top 100 in 2025 (#68).

China is still a priority market, but diversification is happening

Chinese students have traditionally been a key source of international students for Taiwan, but Taiwan’s universities are hosting ever-greater numbers of students from other Asian countries as well, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Taiwan offers a unique mix of benefits that are prioritised by Asian families:

• Lower cost of living than the Big Four
• Proximity
• Safety
• Strong university-industry linkages
• Education influenced by Western and Japanese academic models

Taiwan Insight reports that:

“Based on 2024 statistics, among the international students who studied in Taiwan and obtained valid employment permits, the top three nationalities are Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with students from these three countries accounting for 76% of the total, and this figure shows rapid growth compared to previous years.”

However, Taiwan is losing some market share in Malaysia to China, as China intensifies its reach and investment in Belt and Road countries. By 2024, 150 countries had participated in some way in China’s Belt and Road infrastructure and development projects, and for the first time, trade with those countries made up more than half of China’s total trade volume last year. Analysts see the massive initiative as a serious threat to Western influence around the world. The Belt and Road Initiative is especially significant at a time when the US, under President Trump, is rapidly pursuing an isolationist position with respect to foreign affairs.

A goal of attracting more international students

The government strategy most influential in guiding Taiwan’s internationalisation is the New Southbound Policy (NSP) established in 2016, which prioritises close ties with other Southeast Asian nations, Australia, and New Zealand.

As well as student exchange programmes and cooperation agreements between Taiwan and NSP countries, scholarships are a key part of the programme. The largest scholarship initiative is the Taiwan Scholarships offered by the Ministry of Education (MOE). These are available to international students pursuing undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral studies. They cover most tuition and living fees, as well as airfare.

The most pressing reason that Taiwanese government wants to attract more international students is the country’s rapidly ageing population. Taiwan has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, and demographers expect that by 2025, Taiwan will be a “super-aged” society, with those aged 65 and older composing more than 20% of the population. This is, of course, high on the government’s radar already and it is going to be a major societal and economic challenge going forward.

The official government target for 2030 is to attract 320,000 international students to Taiwan. There is also a goal – with associated investment and visa policies – of seeing roughly two-thirds of foreign graduates (210,000) staying on in the country to work after graduation. The over 7% growth in foreign enrolments registered in 2024 is certainly a sign that there is momentum towards these goals.

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Student surveys conducted earlier this quarter highlight an overall positive disposition among international students towards studying in the United States. There are some indications, however, that overseas demand is changing due to policies set by the Trump administration.

Those policies – both announced and anticipated – are creating a more restrictive environment with respect to student visa processing, and they are prompting mounting uncertainty among prospective students about whether it is wise to study in the US.

“International students and their families seek predictability, security, and a welcoming environment when choosing where to study,” says NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw. “The US government’s recent actions have created an atmosphere of fear and confusion that has students, scholars, and their families understandably concerned about their safety and future in the United States…These actions by the government will likely result in prospective students choosing to study elsewhere and current students accelerating the completion of their degrees so they can return home sooner. Students have many options when it comes to study destinations.”

Search as an indicator of early-stage interest

Studyportals is reporting a decline in student search volumes for study options in the United States between the first week of January and the first week of March. In some respects, that shift is quite pronounced, notably for advanced degrees (i.e., master’s and doctoral programmes) where demand dropped by -38% across Studyportals websites.

“The main markets that are driving this decline include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Iran, with the latter indicating the largest decline (-61.2%), followed by a steep fall from Bangladesh (-54.1%),” adds Studyportals. “At the same time, the sense of uncertainty in student decision may be evident by the fluctuated demand generated per week, as prospective Indian and Bangladeshi demand rose by 16.1% and 9.9% respectively, and modestly from prospective Pakistani and Nigerian students.”

In general, such shifts in search volumes indicate changing preferences among prospective students who are at an early stage of research and planning for study abroad. As such, they may foreshadow demand patterns 12-15 months (or longer) ahead of course start dates.

Picking up on Dr Aw’s earlier point, Studyportals has noted that student demand, as indicated by search volumes, is shifting to other destinations this quarter, notably the United Kingdom.

Additional scrutiny for student visa applicants

Students’ uncertainty, as reflected in search patterns, may now be further exacerbated by a directive this week from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In an extensive cable to all US diplomatic posts abroad, Secretary Rubio has instructed US visa offices to apply an additional level of scrutiny to visa applicants.

“Effective immediately, consular officers must refer certain student and exchange visitor (F, M, and J) visa applicants to the Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) for a mandatory social media check as described below,” the cable instructs. It also quotes the Secretary’s remarks from 16 March, when he said, “We don’t want people in our country that are going to be committing crimes and undermining our national security or the public safety. It’s that simple, especially people that are here as guests. That is what a visa is…And if you violate the terms of your visitation, you are going to leave.”

Reporting on the directive, the independent news site The Handbasket adds that, “The cable is meant to force compliance with two Trump executive orders: EO 14161, Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats, and EO 14188, Additional Measures to Combat Anti-Semitism…In addition to applicants they suspect of terrorist connections, it also instructs consulars to perform enhanced social media vetting for any applicants who previously held a student or exchange visa between 7 October 2023 and 31 August 2024, or had their visa terminated between 7 October 2023 and now.”

The immediate implication will be more steps and time involved in student visa processing in the US. It also appears that consular officials can now deny visa applications – or even discourage applications from – those students whose social media footprints reflect any hostility towards or criticism of the United States or Israel.

Colleges could lose permission to enrol foreign students

The Trump administration has also threatened colleges with revocation of their authorisation to receive international students if they are judged by the government to be too tolerant of pro-Palestinian protests on their campuses.

The news site Axios first reported the threat last week, quoting an unnamed official from the Department of Homeland Security: “Every institution that has foreign students … will go through some sort of review. You can have so many bad apples in one place that it leads to decertification of the school…I don’t think we’re at that point yet. But it is not an empty threat.”

The significance of the move arises from the distinct structure within the US system for administering student visas. All US institutions and schools are obliged to register visiting students in a national system, the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS). The system hinges in part on each institution’s authorisation to enrol foreign students, which in turn is granted by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

DHS currently authorises roughly 7,500 American colleges, schools, and language programmes in this way. And there is a mechanism in place to decertify educators – a process which, once enacted, effectively prevents that college or school from enrolling international students.

It is unclear what next steps, if any, the administration may take on this front. However, Axios adds: “The effort…marks another escalation of Trump’s aggressive crackdown on immigration and antisemitism that civil libertarians say stifles campus speech and has led to several lawsuits.”

It would be fair to expect that these latest directives will create further confusion and uncertainty for prospective international students considering study in the United States.

For additional background, please see:

English UK, the peak body for English-language teaching (ELT) in the UK, has released full-year data on the business volume of its 125 members in 2024 and found that student weeks were down 9% compared with 2023.

The ELT trends are reported in the association’s QUIC Q4 2024 report, which includes full-year data for all four quarters.

UK may outperform other “Big Four” destinations

Despite the decrease, industry research firm BONARD predicts that UK ELT providers will end up “outperforming” counterparts in Australia, Canada, and the US for 2024. In 2023, the UK’s post-COVID recovery was slower than Australia’s, but it has since become more difficult for ELT students to get a visa for Australia.

Junior segment is taking longer to rebound

The 9% decrease in UK ELT student weeks was cumulative and based on business recovering to 87% of 2023 levels in Q1, 99% in Q2, 91%, in Q3, and 96% in Q4. However, when compared with 2019, Q4 2024 reached only 72% of student weeks – and 65% for the Junior segment.

The Adult segment represents the highest proportion of all weeks. In the summer – Q3 –Junior weeks always reach their peak given younger students’ greater ability to travel in their seasonal break (Figure 1). Across all of 2024, the Adult segment recovered more substantially than the Junior segment (Figure 2

Decline stems from several factors – only some of which are quantifiable

Ivana Bartosik of BONARD explained that from a tracking perspective, 2023 is likely to be the new benchmark year for performance going forward given the extent to which the pandemic disrupted student mobility (and data on it). For example, neither 2023 nor 2024 were characterised by pandemic effects, and so the decrease in business levels is caused by other factors.

Those factors include some combination of conditions in source markets, exchange rate fluctuations, degree of access to quality English-language teaching in students’ home countries, and the extent to which students are turning to digital alternatives to in-person instruction.

In addition, English UK says other reasons for the 9% year-over-year decrease registered in 2024 may be “attributable to the shift of student flows to newer, often more price-conscious ELT destinations such as Dubai, the Philippines, and Malaysia.” This is not quantifiable, however, given a lack of robust data in those countries.

Top markets for UK ELT

Saudi Arabia remains by far the top sending market for UK ELT providers. Second-place Türkiye grew the fastest compared with 2023, while Switzerland and Brazil contributed fewer weeks. The full Top Ten list (also shown in Figure 3 below) is as follows, and these countries represent 71% of all student weeks:

1. Saudi Arabia
2. Türkiye
3. Kuwait
4. South Korea
5. Colombia
6. Japan
7. Switzerland
8. Brazil
9. Italy
10. France

For additional background, please see: