Category: Education

Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen recap some recent industry news, including Australia’s planned cap on foreign enrolments and the economic impact of this year’s new policy settings.

This month’s episode features a conversation with Ian Aird, CEO of English Australia, and Jodie Gray, the Chief Executive of English UK. Both are leading important advocacy efforts on behalf of ELT providers in their respective countries, and each has an important perspective to share on the challenges facing the sector today.

We conclude with a closer look at Colombia as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

English-taught programmes (ETPs) are becoming more prevalent in Europe, according to a new research report just released by the British Council and Studyportals.

The trend represents a significant competitive advantage for European educators at a time when international students are increasingly exploring alternatives to the “Big Four” destinations of Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. That said, those leading English-speaking destinations still dominate the ETP market.

The report, Mapping English-taught programmes in Europe, shows that as of June 2024, 43% of on-campus ETPs and 58% of online ETPs outside of the Big Four are in Europe.

Ireland, Germany, and The Netherlands offer the most

Those three countries each offer more than 2,000 on-campus English-taught degree programmes, followed by France, Italy, and Spain (over 1,000). France and Italy stand out as the EEA countries where growth in ETPs has risen the fastest. France offered roughly 1,200 in 2019 and now offers about 1,400, while Italy’s 960 in 2019 has moved to 1,250.

At the city level, Dublin, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Cork, and Berlin are the top suppliers of ETPs in Europe

Online master’s programmes on the rise

While overall, since 2021, the supply of European-based online degree programmes in English has risen by 67%, the real growth is coming from master’s programmes, as shown below.

The report notes that the online space is one to watch in a context of policy-based limits on international student mobility:

“Several popular study destinations are also implementing policies that restrict international student mobility, with social, economic, and political crises in many source markets further limiting students’ ability to study abroad. Consequently, the digital landscape presents a promising opportunity for EEA institutions to enhance their reputation in both face-to-face and online education.”

German institutions are leading the way in Europe in terms of how quickly they are expanding their supply of online programmes.

“Off the beaten path”

Commenting on the survey results, Piet van Hove, President of EAIE, said:

“In recent years, political trends are severely affecting migration policies as well as putting higher education in a defensive mode. All this adds up to a highly volatile and uncertain landscape for international student mobility. Provision of English-taught programmes is a key indicator of the state of internationalisation, and the EEA is still emerging a strong alternative to the Big Four. More and more, students are looking for truly global education experiences and going off the beaten path.”

Megan Agnew, IELTS Global Partnerships at British Council, noted: “While the Big Four markets … continue to dominate, the shifting landscape of English as a Medium of Education provides international students with more choice than ever before.”

A different approach

Edwin van Rest, cofounder and CEO of Studyportals, commented on the unique lens through which European institutions view internationalisation:

“There is increasing tension between anti-immigration politics in some countries, and a global war for talent and demographic declines. Governments in Europe generally have a strategic approach and see international students are not just a source of tuition revenue and spending power, but are key to addressing talent shortages and increasing national competitiveness.”

For additional background, please see:

The Class Foundation’s European Student Living Monitor 2024 (SLM) report has been released, and a key finding from the survey is that a many international students report mental health struggles and loneliness, and that well-designed/well-planned student housing can play an important role in mitigating that.

The SLM was launched with a goal of identifying “exactly what kind of spaces and amenities really impact students, so that the sector can optimise their portfolios to enhance student experience and success.” This is the second year of the survey, and this year it received 10,935 responses.

Most respondents to the survey (70%) live in purpose-built student accommodation (referred to as PBSA), with 20% in university-owned and managed housing.

Loneliness affects 4 in 10 students

A significant 40% of respondents said that their mental health is suffering due to loneliness. The correlation between mental health and loneliness is apparent by looking at students’ scores on the Mental Health Index (MHI-5). The good mental health benchmark score is 60. The average among all respondents was 57.8. The average among those reporting loneliness was 49.6 – a significant dip.

Of all the emotional stressors that students were asked about, loneliness was the most significant. These were the differences in mental health scores between students affected by a stressor and not affected.

• Loneliness: -13.63
• Bullying: -10.1
• Discrimination: -11.42
• Relationships (family, friends, work, etc.): -10.19
• Knowing where to find support: -10.11
• Having confidence to do the things I want: -9.57

Students need more help with connection

The report notes:

“There has been an increase in the number of students struggling with relationships (including making new friends). This are all understandable in the context of going to university to a new place, but these are ongoing major pressures which contribute to the happiness and living experience in general. Knowing where to turn for support is a challenge for many students, and universities and operators can play a critical role by actively guiding and connecting students to the right resources, thereby significantly improving their living experience.”

The relationship between living spaces and mental health

Another important segmentation was to see how students who have access to “well-designed communal spaces, organised events, and outdoor areas” scored compared to others. Those students’ average MHI-5 scores were over 60. The report notes as well that “It is simply not enough to have these spaces but also them correctly activated.”

Financial difficulties take a toll

Among students struggling with financial stress, the average MHI-5 score was 47.4 – even lower than the average score of students reporting loneliness and 18 points lower than students for whom finances are not an issue. The SLM suggests that “the creation of more hardship funds and affordable housing incentives for investors and developers.”

Some groups suffering more than others

Non-binary students and students with disabilities also reported poorer mental health (48.8 and 45.8, respectively).
 
Women (56.3) reported more mental health struggles than men (61).
 
There was little difference between international students (58.9) and domestic students (57%), though the former were slightly happier.

Key supports for students

The report provides the following chart indicating what kinds of supports are most conducive to student well-being. Student-led programmes of events; communal spaces for study and recreation; and access to nature, big windows, natural light, and ventilation are “musts,” according to the report.



A call to action

Kelly-anne Watson, Managing Director of The Class Foundation, writes:

“Our findings make it clear: student happiness is deeply connected to where and how they live. This report is a call to action for us all to build environments that do more than just house students; they should actively contribute to their positive experience, make them feel supported, and help foster a strong sense of community.”

For additional background, please see:

Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced today several new measures affecting international students in Canada. He stated, “The measures we have taken up until now are working,” but continued that additional steps are necessary to achieve a government target to achieve a “decrease in the number of temporary residents from 6.5% of Canada’s total population down to 5% by 2026.”

Mr Miller said: “When you look at the growth we have seen in people who are temporary residents of Canada, that is something that has grown almost exponentially over the last few years.”

In a press release, he continued:

“The reality is that not everyone who wants to come to Canada will be able to—just like not everyone who wants to stay in Canada will be able to. We are taking action to strengthen our temporary residence programs and roll out a more comprehensive immigration plan to meet the demands of today’s changing landscape. Our immigration system must preserve its integrity, and be well managed and sustainable. And as we look forward, we will do everything it takes to achieve that goal and set newcomers up for success.”

Background

The new measures build on policies in place since January 2024. Those policies include a national cap on new study permits for 2024 that the government projected would result in a 35% decrease in the number of new permits issued this year compared with 2023. The decrease is in fact now tracking to be much more substantial.

Other policies that have been active since January 2024 include the removal of spousal work permits other than for students in graduate or professional programmes and the removal of PGWP eligibility for graduates of Ontario’s public-private colleges. Since January, students have also had to supply a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) with their study permit application to prove they have been admitted to an approved programme and institution and to ensure institutions comply with the number of study spaces they have been allotted through the cap.

The intention of the original policies was to respond to growing public frustration with an affordable housing and healthcare capacity crisis which has been linked by some to a surge in the number of temporary migrants entering Canada needing accommodation. That issue is weakening the approval rating of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party, and with a federal election looming in 2025.

An ApplyBoard analysis based on January-June 2024 data found that study permit applications and issuances are trending much below the projection of a 35% decrease. ApplyBoard’s projection for full-year 2024 is a 50% for capped post-secondary programmes (e.g., undergraduate programmes) and a 24% reduction in study permits for cap-exempt programmes (e.g. graduate-level courses), respectively.

Setting the cap for the next two years

For anyone wondering how long the cap would remain in place, Mr Miller ended the guessing game today, saying: “The cap is here to stay.” The cap will be set at a stable level for 2025 and 2026 and will be set at 10% below the 2024 cap level. The idea is to reduce the cap ceiling from a ceiling of about 485,000 issued study permits in 2024 to 437,000 study permits issued in both 2025 and 2026.

Graduate students included in the cap

Mr Miller said his department is now “carving in” master’s and PhD students to be included in the cap in 2025 and 2026. In other words, international student enrolments at the graduate level will now also count against the cap total for each year whereas they were previously exempt. Mr Miller said:

“The 2025–2026 study permit intake cap will include master’s and doctoral students who will now have to submit a provincial or territorial attestation letter. We will be reserving approximately 12% of allocation spaces for these students in recognition of the benefits they bring to the Canadian labour market.”

College graduates will face new limits on post-study work rights

Degree graduates will remain eligible for PGWP of up to three years. However, international students approved for a study permit after 1 October 2024 – if they graduate from college certificate or diploma programmes – will no longer be eligible for a PGWP unless their work is linked to areas of high labour market demand, as designated by each province or territory.

Spouses eligibility for a work tied to student’s study programme

Previously, the spouses or partners of students at the graduate level had preserved their right to obtain an open work permit. But later this year, the spouses/partners of master’s degree students whose programmes are less than 16 months in duration will no longer be eligible for such a permit.

PGWP language proficiency requirements

As part of the changes to the PGWP programme, all applicants will be required to demonstrate a minimum language proficiency in French or English in order to increase their ability to transition to permanent residence and adapt to changing economic conditions. A Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) level 7 for university graduates and CLB 5 for college graduates will be required for anyone applying for a post-graduation work permit on or after 1 November 2024.

For additional background, please see:

The following is a guest post from Nannette Ripmeester. Nannette is the Director at Expertise in Labour Mobility (ELM) and founder of CareerProfessor.works. She serves as Director Performance Benchmarking, leading the International Student Barometer (ISB) for Etio in Europe and North America.

The simple answer to the question raised in the title is yes. Whether it is from the perspective of the student, the higher education institution, or society at large, employability matters. In fact, it matters big time. But what we mean with employability might sometimes be less clear. To me personally, it means maximising the talents of every individual who studies at our institutions – does that sound impossible? No, I believe it is attainable provided we offer what we promise, and we are transparent about what we can and cannot do. Managing expectations is key, even if it means telling students that simply studying abroad is not going to do the trick.

The International Student Barometer (ISB) data for 2023/24 shows that for the past five years “Future career impact” has topped the list at 96% as the primary reason why international students choose a higher education institution (HEI).

Study choice is not driven by country reputation (although important, it only scored #7) or institution reputation (#3) but by the impact it will have on a graduate’s career. Given that this latest ISB is based on 192,581 student responses, including 122,975 international students studying at 155 institutions in 24 countries, it seems safe to say employability is the key driver of choice for a vast majority of students. This is underlined by the fact that ‘Earning potential’ is in 5th place (out of 20 answer options). Although over a longer period, the importance of earnings has increased, in comparison with last year’s ISB data it has declined slightly in importance. It is too early yet to see a clear trend in that respect, but important enough to note if we think about what we are trying to market to the next generations of students.

Employability is not only a driving force behind study choice but also key for recommendation of the study experience (together with course organisation (!) and quality of lectures). Hence, it is evident that from the start of the student journey that higher education institutions need to work on graduate career outcomes, an area where institutions in Europe lag by 9% compared to the global benchmark.

Nevertheless, the European higher education sector has the Erasmus+ programme, and the benefits of study abroad with respect to graduate employability seem obvious as indicated by two Erasmus Impact Studies (2014 and 2019). But life is not that simple, study abroad is not creating employability on its own. Students need to be provided with the support to help them “unpack” what they have gained while being abroad. For higher education to make study abroad work in building graduate employability it is essential to understand the competencies that are gained on mobility and how these contribute to career prospects of mobile students.

However, when we asked employers if they recruit students simply because they have studied abroad, the picture becomes slightly more mixed. There is no guarantee that study abroad in itself makes someone employable – there is more needed to make that happen. For starters, a graduate should be able to explain what they have gained while being abroad and how these skills can support them in their new role. When graduates can unpack what they have gained abroad, employers become keener in hiring that person. But when that graduate can ‘repackage’ their skills in the language of a hiring manager (word of warning: there is no one-size-fits-all approach – this may differ per sector and per country), an employer is more likely to be interested in that graduate. After all, study abroad provides, by its very nature, situations where people develop the skills sought after by the future world of work.

Now graduate outcomes are not the sole reason for either providing higher education or for offering study abroad, but if our students can use the experiences, we provide them with to become more employable, we have done an important part of our job: creating talents for the future.

What can institutions and providers do to support this quest for employability? Take employability skills seriously. Globalise your curricula, build in global orientation, and skills training because that career workshop at the end of a study programme will not be enough to create employable graduates. And please realise that not all international students will stay in their host country. Many will return to their home countries or might consider another country for a while. Maybe it all starts with the understanding that for recruitment of new students, you need to start at the end of the student journey by taking steps to ensure better graduate outcomes for your students.

For additional background, please see:

The following is a guest post from Claire Field, which was originally published on her blog. Claire is the Principal of Claire Field and Associates, an independent consulting practice offering advice across VET, international education, higher education, and GenAI/EdTech issues. She previously held senior positions in the NSW and Australian governments, as well as in TAFE NSW and Mission Australia. Claire also served as the CEO of the Australian Council for Private Education and Training.

As the impact of the international student caps on our universities dominates the headlines, spare a thought for the high quality private VET providers who have never been involved in fraudulent activities or student exploitation. The best of them are decent, kind, dedicated entrepreneurs who have a passion for education.

Sadly they too are the collateral damage in the newly announced student visa caps – and the impact on their operations will be much more extreme than on any of our universities or TAFE Institutes.

While I personally agree with the government’s intention that tertiary education providers who teach international students should aim for a mix of domestic and international students (and we could debate what the ‘right’ mix of students should be), the fact is that it has never been an issue for private providers to operate institutions that focus exclusively (or almost exclusively) on educating international students.

Until now…

A total of 94,500 new international students will be able to enrol in VET next year (and 4,000 of those places will be reserved for providers with CRICOS applications currently under processing – they will get a cap of 30 students each – meaning that the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations is expecting more than 130 new CRICOS VET providers to be approved in 2025)…

The remaining places will be allocated as follows:

• specialist international VET providers (ie those with 80% or more international students) have collectively been given 61,505 new students
• non-specialist providers (ie under 80% of their students are internationals) will get a combined total of 18,953 new commencements
• TAFEs will get 5,482 new commencements, and
• new CRICOS providers which have only recently been registered will be allocated a total of 4,560 new commencements.

It is the first category where we are already starting to see staff laid off and in one case I heard of yesterday, a senior executive admitted to hospital following a nervous breakdown – after their institute was given a cap which is just 15% of their normal student numbers (ie their approved CRICOS capacity).

The reason why the caps are so damaging to VET providers is that in VET ‘new students’ are almost the same as ‘total’ students in any given year because many VET courses are only ~12 months long.

The institution above had only recently taken out a 10 year lease on 4 new floors in the CBD of one of our capital cities and had invested millions in a high class fitout.

This institution is not a ghost college. It’s not an elite university with extensive financial reserves it can draw on – but it is an employer and a tenant in a capital city where landlords are finding it hard to get offices leased.

After receiving their student cap late last week, the next day this institution immediately had to make some of their staff redundant.

This is not a ‘shonk’ operating a ghost college.

It is an entrepreneur offering quality education to genuine students coming to Australia to learn new skills.

Sadly, of course, this institution is not alone…

While private higher education providers typically offer longer programs of study than VET providers, speaking before the Senate Committee hearing into the ESOS legislation in Sydney on Friday, Stephen Nagle from Holmes Institute had the courage to share the following about the impact of the caps on his institution:

Other details that we know, about the impact on private providers include:

ASX-listed Edu Holdings notified the ASX on Tuesday of the impact of the caps on their VET provide, Australian Learning Group. They have been given a cap of 447 new international VET students which is approximately half of the new students they enrolled in 2023 (-51%) and a -57% reduction on total new students enrolled this year. However, because their students typically undertake a two-year program “the decline is likely to be gradual”. Their higher education provider, Ikon Institute, had previously been given a cap for 2025 of 200 new international higher education students (which is down on the 347 new students they enrolled in 2023 and the 784 new commencements YTD in 2024). They noted that they “expected to benefit from their progressive enrolment growth during FY24 and its 3-4 year average study duration for a number of years.”

NextEd Group is another ASX-listed education organisation educating international VET and higher education students. They have a combined CRICOS capacity across their colleges of almost 27,000 students and in February and April 2024 opened new campuses in Adelaide and the Gold Coast. They have been given a cap for their VET operations of 1,139 for 2025 which is down on the 2,078 new commencing international VET students they enrolled in 2023 and the YTD 2,636 in 2024. (They have also advised that the cap for their higher education provider, Academy of Interactive Technology, will be 100 students which is below their 2023 new international student enrolments of 172, but above their YTD 2024 new international students of just 72.)

Other CRICOS VET providers I am aware of have been given the following caps relative to their CRICOS capacity. (Note that I have deliberately not given precise figures to avoid them being identified. It is for them to decide when/if they wish to share the details):

• Cap <40 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 800 students
• Cap: <200 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 400 students
• Cap: <400 new students, CRICOS capacity approx. 1,200 students

Against this backdrop I was unsurprised to learn that an online meeting on Monday to discuss the caps attracted more than 250 people, and that providers are exploring the possibility of legal action…

On 2 January 2024, when Canadian Immigration Minister Mark Miller announced a two-year cap on new study permits, he explained that:

“For 2024, the cap is expected to result in approximately 364,000 approved study permits, a decrease of 35% from [the number of study permits issued in] 2023.”

Whatever math was behind his projection, it now seems very flawed. An ApplyBoard analysis finds that if current study permit processing and approval rates remain at their January–June 2024 levels, 47% fewer study permits will be awarded in 2024 than in 2023. The global recruitment platform visualises this projected decline in the following graph, which anticipates approvals falling to levels not seen since 2018.

ApplyBoard summarises the logic of its analysis like this:

• “The number of new study permit applications processed by the Canadian government dropped by 54% in Q2 2024 versus Q2 2023. Year over year, we project the number of applications processed to drop by 39% in 2024.
• If current trends hold, around 230,000 new study permits will be processed in the second half of 2024.
• If the study permit processing projection above is accurate, and the study permit approval rate stays at 51%, we estimate that just over 231,000 new study permits will be approved in 2024. This projected approval count is roughly 47% lower than the 436,600 new study permits which were approved in 2023.”

Those mid-year totals demonstrate that student demand is shifting away from Canada under the new policy settings due to the confusion and uncertainty arising from the new rules this year. ApplyBoard found that even Canadian post-secondary programmes that are not included in the cap are experiencing lower demand:

“In Q1 2024, applications decreased by 26% year-over-year for programs affected by the study permit caps. Cap-exempt programs (master’s and doctoral degree programs) also saw a [year-over-year] dip of 21%.”

ApplyBoard’s projection for full-year 2024 are a 50% and 24% reduction in study permits for capped post-secondary programmes (e.g., undergraduate programmes) and cap-exempt programmes, respectively.

Approval rates dropping this year

The number of new study permits granted in any year depends on the number of applications students submit, how fast the Canadian government processes them, and the approval rate.

Looking only at one quarter of the year, Q2, ApplyBoard found a 54% year-over-year drop in the number of applications processed, rising to a 70% decline in Ontario, the Canadian province hosting by far the most international students in the country.

What’s more, between January-June 2024, 48% fewer study permit applications were approved. In fact, the approval rate fell to 51% in the first two quarters of 2024, compared with 58% in 2023. This is important because the math the government performed to arrive at its two-year “zero growth” cap on new study permits included an assumption that the approval rate would be 60% in 2024. ApplyBoard explains further that:

“While it’s possible the approval rate may improve in July–December 2024, to max out the full number of possible study permits, demand would have to rise as well. With an estimated 230,000 study permits projected to be processed in the last half of the year, even an approval rate of 100% would not be enough, given that only 114,000 study permits were approved in the first six months of 2024.”

Students from top sending markets looking elsewhere

Between January and June 2024, only half as many Indian students were approved for study permits as in the same period in 2023 despite a relatively high approval rate of 85% for this market. Even more extreme: a 76% reduction in approved study permits for Nepali students, a more than 70% reduction for Nigerian students, and a 65% decline for Filipino students.

Many prospective students from key markets like these are aware of:

• A new savings requirement of more than CDN$20,000 to be eligible for a study permit;
• The removal of the right for partners of undergraduate students to receive an open work visa;
• The elimination of post-study work eligibility for students enrolled in college programmes delivered via private-public partnerships;
• Rumours of further immigration rulings down the line that would affect international students.

ApplyBoard notes that the overall “drop in permits processed [in the first half of 2024] can be attributed both to students who paused or deferred their study permit application and to others who pivoted to different destinations.”

The US, Germany, Italy, and other destinations are picking up share from Canada (as well as Australia and the UK) according to Studyportals research. For its part, ApplyBoard has detected a 20% decline in global searches for “study in Canada” this year compared to 2023.

Institutions under pressure

Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, is predicting a 45% decline in international enrolments for higher education institutions in Canada this fall. Speaking recently to the Globe & Mail, he explained: “This is a hit, a national hit to university budgets that we haven’t seen in modern memory…The most important piece of feedback we’ve heard is just real uncertainty and confusion about what kind of opportunities there are going to be to come and study in Canada, and what the rules would be.”

Meanwhile, Michael McDonald, director of government relations at Colleges and Institutes Canada, expects enrolments to be down by more than 35% for his association’s members.

Todd Mondor, president of the University of Winnipeg, said separately to the Globe and Mail that international enrolment declines have wiped out CDN$4.5 million from his university’s budget. He said: “We’ll do everything we can to preserve student support services and make sure students succeed here, but there will be impacts…we’re just keeping our fingers crossed they can be minimised.”

Larissa Bezo, president of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, also spoke with the Globe and concluded:

“The perception of us having closed the doors to international students has resulted in very significant damage to our sector. What we have to appreciate is the recovery time. When you have that kind of reputational damage, given enrolment cycles, etc, you’re looking at a five to seven-year time horizon.”

For additional background. Please see: