Category: Education

On Friday afternoon, 4 October, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced a number of important details for the new rules governing Canada’s post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility. The 4 October update follows the additional restrictions introduced by IRCC on 18 September.

In its latest update, IRCC first confirms that 1 November 2024 is the cut-off date for which the new rules will apply. Students who applied for or held a study permit prior to 1 November 2024 will remain eligible for a PGWP under the previous rules.

Students applying for a study permit on or after 1 November 2024, however, will be affected by the new rules, the most important aspect of which concerns a new “field of study” requirement for graduates of college programmes, including degree programmes.

IRCC explains that as of that 1 November effective date, “If you graduated from a college program or any other program not listed above, you must graduate in an eligible field of study” in order to be eligible for a post-graduation work permit.

Graduates of degree programmes offered by universities are unaffected by the new rules and will continue to be eligible for PGWPs of up to three years, without a field of study requirement.

On the Key question of fields of study for college graduates leading to a PGWP, IRCC’s 4 October announcement provides a detailed list of 966 eligible academic programmes. Crucially, those programmes are confined to five broad areas: agriculture and agri-food; healthcare; science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM); skilled trade; and transportation.

This means, however, that some key areas of college programming that tend to attract significant numbers of international students, such as tourism and hospitality or business programmes of any kind, will no longer be PGWP-eligible. Commenting on LinkedIn shortly after the 4 October announcement, Karen Dancy, director, recruitment and international at Olds College, said, “Notably absent on the list is hospitality. This will be catastrophic for local communities, including rural and remote areas, that rely on our college-educated international learners.”

In an open letter to IRCC Minister Marc Miller on 27 September, Marketa Evans, the president and CEO of Colleges Ontario, registered the sector’s strong objections to the additional restrictions placed on college graduates. “I write to express our strong objection to the federal government’s decision to end automatic work permits for international students attending Ontario’s public colleges,” she said. “We are very concerned about the lack of consultation with provinces and the use of national labour market information to inform what local employers need. We urge the federal government to work collaboratively with the province to ensure that the needs of Ontarians are taken into consideration under this new work permit system.”

The process by which the list of PGWP-eligible programmes remains unclear. But IRCC has previously said that it would be based on areas of long-term labour shortages in the Canadian economy. In a 1 October statement to ICEF Monitor, an IRCC spokesperson added that, “The occupations in long-term shortage on which this policy is based are the same as those used in Express Entry’s category-based selection process,” and that the list of eligible field of studies would be “chosen with input received from our partners, including provinces and territories, and stakeholders across the country.”

Many stakeholders, however, have called that process into question, especially with respect to its ability to recognise or adapt to regional or local labour market needs. A 2 October statement from Pari Johnston, the president & CEO of Colleges and Institutes Canada, makes that very point.

“The reforms single out public colleges to prove their programs align with national labour market needs – determined by Ottawa – in order to be considered an eligible field of study for a post-graduate work permit. New eligibility restrictions also make a false distinction between the quality and relevance of college and university bachelor’s degrees approved by their provinces…Ottawa’s decision to align programs with national needs creates a fundamental disconnect between the pressing needs of local labour markets and the essential contributions of skilled international graduates from the over 10,000 diploma and bachelor’s degree programs in high demand fields across our network. We believe this disconnect needs to be addressed with urgency.”

Scale of impact

The Toronto Star reports that “105,030 post-graduation work permits were approved in the first six months of this year, with 64% of them going to international graduates from colleges. Over the same period, graduates in business studies made up 42% of the work permit recipients while 37% were in STEM and 16% in computing and IT. However, just 1% studied [skilled] trades.”

In other words, more than six in ten PGWPs issued in the first half of 2024 went to college graduates, roughly 67,000 of them. Of those, nearly half would no longer be eligible for post-study work in Canada under IRCC’s new rules.

What happens next

There is no question that IRCC’s 4 October announcement presents a massive challenge to Canadian colleges, and one that will have significant impacts on recruitment strategy and institutional finances.

Writing on LinkedIn on 4 October, Dr Dennis Johnson – formerly the president of the College of New Caledonia and now a consultant in the sector – said that, “The recent policy changes announced by Minister Miller mark a pivotal shift for Canada’s International Student Program, drastically reducing what was once a financial lifeline for many institutions. The future of the post-secondary education system is at risk, and without coordinated action, both the viability of institutions and opportunities for future learners are in question.”

Dr Johnson sees a period of turmoil ahead, with considerable demand for additional funding from provincial governments, but ultimately that these current challenges may also drive innovation within the sector: “I firmly believe that Canadian institutions will use this crisis as an opportunity for improvement, innovation and change. We are likely entering one of the most transformative periods in Canadian post-secondary education in decades, as institutions rethink their business models, improve operations, professionalize management practices, and adapt their priorities and program offerings to align with new realities.”

For additional background, please see:

The Australian government remains committed to passing into law a cap – intended to take effect as early as January 2025 – on the number of new international students coming into Australia. First, it must push through the controversial proposed legislation known informally as the ESOS amendments bill and formally as the Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024.

The international education sector continues to voice strong objections to the bill in its current form, which has been referred to the Senate Standing Committees on Education and Employment for study. The Senate has added hearings due to the magnitude of the impact the bill would have – and the controversy around:

The Senate held an additional, fourth day of hearings yesterday, after which English Australia issued this statement on LinkedIn:

“English Australia reaffirms its position that it does not support the Bill in its current form. We again urge the government to pause the Bill’s progress, meaningfully consult with the sector, and ensure that amendments to the ESOS Framework and their implementation genuinely support quality, integrity and sustainability of the international education sector and the 250,000 jobs and thousands of Australian businesses the sector enables.”

During the hearing, committee member Senator Mehreen Faruqi raised a number of questions as to why the bill was going ahead.

“Is the bill to address the housing crisis or to address integrity issues? It’s a bill, apparently, to address critical work shortages, but the formula developed to put those caps on [colleges and universities] address none of those issues,” the Senator said. “I don’t know if I’m living in a parallel universe here, but this bill doesn’t do anything that it is purported to do…It is a terrible, reckless bill”.

The Senate committee will report on the conclusions of its review on 8 October. Australia’s House of Representatives will only sit for these dates between now and Christmas, meaning that there is little time remaining to pass the ESOS amendments bill before the end of the calendar year.

• 8 to 10 October
• 4 to 7 November
• 18 to 21 November
• 25 to 28 November

Still, there is widespread expectation that the cap will be set for January 2025, despite the many international students planning to arrive in Australia to begin studies in January and February of 2025.

If this occurs, there is an understanding in the sector that programme and staffing cuts are inevitable, and that outright closure of colleges would not be surprising. This is especially the case for private institutions and schools concerned with vocational and skills training.

What’s wrong with the cap?

One of the most persuasive arguments against the cap has been made by independent consultant Claire Field, who has been examining the cap allocations carefully and pointing out a wide number of problems in the methodology.

In the Senate hearing yesterday, Ms Field noted that there has been no consistency – even within sectors (other than TAFE) – applied to the cap allocation across institutions. She noted that given that the government claims a pursuit of “integrity” is at the heart of the ESOS bill, it is not in keeping that some highly ethical institutions are receiving meagre allocations while others being investigated for unethical practices are receiving more.

She asked the Standing Committee to consider a supplementary submission from Western Sydney University that called for:

• Parliamentary review of the cap distribution
• Clear criteria for how caps have been applied
• Greater transparency
• A focus on integrity
• Consultation with providers
• The need for a public registry

That submission can be downloaded here.

When asked about the finding of her research, Ms Field provided a summary of odd allocations, including those given to 12 institutions under ASQA sanctions. When asked if the ESOS bill should be scrapped, Ms Field responded diplomatically: “It would be wrong to go ahead as is.”

Ms Field looked more specifically at the way in which private vocational providers will be hardest hit by the cap in a guest post on ICEF Monitor a few weeks ago.

Outside of the Senate hearings process, Australia’s international education community has launched a petition against the ESOS amendments bill, and there is some speculation that there may be collective legal action against the government at some point in the future.

For now, the Senate will review all its submissions and testimony from the four days of hearings on the ESOS amendments and is expected to file its report with Parliament on 8 October 2024.

For additional background, please see:

Editor’s note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London, 23 September 2024.

There is an increasingly critical need for better and more timely data in international education, and one that is being driven by a number of overlapping factors. Students, for example, are looking for stronger evidence of the return on investment they can expect from study abroad. At the same time, policymakers and other stakeholders want clear and current statistics for international enrolments, including indicators of student performance and outcomes.

It is widely acknowledged that there are significant data gaps across the international education sector. We generally don’t have as much information as we could use in terms of how students are recruited, where and how they study, how they perform in their programmes, graduation rates, and student outcomes. Further, there can be a real issue with timeliness of the data we do have. In the UK, for example, high education enrolment figures often lag well behind the actual reporting period. This year, they were released months later than usual and arrived a full 16 months after the academic year in question.

This absence of comprehensive, transparent, and up-to-date data creates vulnerability for the sector. It undermines the impact and narrative around the benefits of global education. To take just one recent example, during a September 2024 media briefing, Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller asserted that foreign college graduates mainly go on to work at low-paying jobs in Canada. Many educators may have wanted to contest the point, but often lack the student outcomes data that could tell a different story of that student experience.

Telling a better story

Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International believes, “We need a new narrative around international higher education and the global role of universities. It’s about foregrounding the academic, social, and cultural benefits that come from internationalisation, and bringing those to the fore in the public discourse and public policy.”

“The availability of data and evidence is crucial for making the case for international education,” agrees Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA. As international education increasingly works to link student mobility to larger economic goals, the necessity of data to help address skills gaps and meet labour market demands is increasingly obvious.

“The fact that we can cite that one in four of the United States’ billion-dollar start-ups has been founded by former international students is powerful,” says Dr Aw. “We can show that 42% of the major companies making advances in AI have been established by former international students. That’s important. We use this data to prove the value of international education.”

Nick Miller, chief marketing officer of QA Higher Education, agrees. “We must be more deliberate about the types of provisions that feed the employment opportunities of our economies,” he says.

Beyond meeting student and economic needs, data-based narratives are essential for effective advocacy with governments and other stakeholders. Significant policy shifts in major study destinations across the past year have emphasised the sector’s vital need for stable policy. “If the policy doesn’t match the rhetoric about welcoming international students, particularly around immigration, it creates a disconnect,” says Anne Marie Graham, chief executive of UK Council for International Student Affairs (UKCISA).

International education can do more to advocate for the policies that enable student mobility. And it should do more. “If we are not proactive in shaping policy then others will make a policy for us in a way that’s not always as well informed as it could be,” says Arnold Persoon, who has served as a board member of the European Association for International Education.

The sentiment is echoed by Bobby Mehta, pro vice-chancellor (global engagement) at the University of Portsmouth. Highlighting the need for collaboration, Mr Mehta says, “As a sector, as an ecosystem, we must really work together to give the assurances to governments that international education is managing and delivering contributions to society. This is essential to creating the conditions for a stable policy environment.”

To be effective, those assurances need evidence. They need to be grounded in data. “Data allow us to show how policy changes impact the sector, and to advise on protecting it,” says Rachel MacSween, director of partnerships at IDP.

Ms MacSween points out international growth strategies are at risk even before migration policies change. “Our data show that international student demand for a country often starts to decline well before any policy changes. That is typically driven by negative public feelings or rhetoric, which policies then tend to respond to.”

“Anti-immigration and nationalism is rising in several parts of the world,” adds Professor Sarah Todd, vice president (global) for Griffith University. “That’s a challenge that we really need to think about as an international education community, regardless of where we live.”

“There is a stereotyped image of what an international student looks like, who they are and how much money they have,” says Professor Todd. “It reflects neither what we’re doing as education providers nor the role of recruitment agencies. So how do we ensure international students are seen as a benefit to the communities they live in, regardless of what countries are doing on migration? As education providers, we have a role to play in that. I think we’ve all got a little bit of branding and reputation enhancement to do.”

Dr Aw points back to evidence-based insights as critical. “The idea that students from Africa are not of as good quality as those from another part of the world is simply not true,” she says. “Data show that students from diverse regions, like Africa, often excel academically, with strong graduation rates and job placements. Disaggregating data debunks these misconceptions and proves that quality is not tied to geography.”

A call to action

The call for better data to inform accurate narratives that generate support for international education is clear. Institutions can start by joining the conversations to explore opportunities for improvements and collaboration. They can examine their internal data and take deliberate steps to improve data collection, analysis, and communication. Mr Mehta urges for greater openness in the sector. He says, “The more transparent we are in these areas, the better. Unifying as an industry to make the case will give education leaders the space to focus on our individual institutions, putting energy into the subject areas and the research that we specialise in.”

“We cannot do this work without making the case, and we can never stop making the case for international education,” concludes Dr Aw. By focusing on transparency and collaboration, institutions can lay the groundwork for a more coherent and comprehensive approach to data collection at both national and international levels.

When parsed by factors such as field of study and country of origin, these indicators will enable the sector to tell a clearer and more compelling story at the institutional, national, and international levels. A story of international student success and the broader benefits of global education. And a story that is fundamental to shaping a sustainable future.

We should all begin this work today.

For additional background, please see:

In a context of policy uncertainty and instability in the tertiary sector, Universities UK has released a blueprint calling for greater collaboration and deeper investment in UK higher education. Universities UK worked with a group of 10 expert commissioners to produce its report.

Opportunity, growth, and partnership: a blueprint for change from the UK’s universities includes recommendations for expanding access, investing in research, and stimulating local growth. It also emphases the need for a coordinated global strategy for UK universities.

Acknowledging multiple challenges – including a recent decrease in demand from key student markets such as Nigeria and India – the report argues that a cohesive strategy is necessary to improve the UK’s global reach, reputation, and impact in the years ahead.

Professor Dame Sally Mapstone, Principal and Vice-Chancellor of the University of St Andrews and President of Universities UK, writes:

“We stand at a fork in the road in the history of the UK’s universities. There is now a clear choice. We can allow our distinguished, globally competitive higher education system to slide into decline. Or we can act together, as institutions and with government, to ensure that higher education is able to deliver for the nation into the 2030s.”

Report arrives at a critical moment

As a new Labour government takes office in the UK, the report is well-timed to engage the government in a conversation with huge implications for the future of higher education in the country.

On 27 September 2024, the new Labour administration announced that it was launching a review of the UK’s international education strategy, a move that could lead to the setting of new student enrolment targets.

The existing strategy, created under the former Conservative government, set a goal of growing overseas student numbers to 600,000 by 2030. This target was reached in 2020-21. Amid growing public concern over immigration figures, however, a series of policies less welcoming to international students were adopted, causing student visa numbers to fall by almost 17%.

More funding needed

To improve the UK education brand in overseas markets, improve access to higher education, increase collaboration, and produce graduates with skills needed by local and national labour forces, the report says that universities need more government funding.

Earlier this month, Universities UK stated that government grants and fees have not kept pace with rising costs and argued for accelerated funding to avoid worrisome budget deficits. Such ongoing deficits, the report suggests, have led to an over-reliance on international student fees to stopgap funding shortfalls.

Yet the government plans to do away with a multi-year tuition freeze and to allow fees to rise with tuition. Prime Minister Keir has also announced that the government is backing away from a pledge to abolish tuition fees.

At the recent ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London, Jamie Arrowsmith, the director of Universities UK International, said that the current situation – in which universities are forced to rely on international student revenue for operations – is unsustainable:

“Fundamentally, basing the long-term sustainability of universities – which should be seen as a real strategic asset for the UK – on a pretty dynamic and actually quite volatile funding stream cannot be in our interest, it cannot be in student interest, and it is certainly not in university or community interest.”

The Rt Hon. the Lord Willetts, who authored the report’s global chapter, says that policy flip-flops regarding international students have damaged the attractiveness of the UK as a study destination.

Call for a coordinated UK global strategy

To strengthen the UK’s reputation abroad, the report calls for a coherent Global Strategy for Universities with this objective:

“To harness the global reach, reputation and impact of our universities to create opportunity, foster prosperity and develop knowledge, both for the UK and our international partners.”

This strategy would be based on broad consultation with stakeholders within education, training, research, and global development. The report envisions the strategy being “owned and coordinated by the Cabinet Office, setting a national framework that recognises and supports the needs and priorities of regions and devolved administrations. It is critical that the Home Office be a partner in this strategy, alongside the Department of Education, Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, Department for Business and Trade and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.”

A ‘Compact’ proposed for universities and government

The Universities UK report also advocates for a new Compact between universities and government. This would set a stable policy framework and be geared at securing “sustainable levels of international student recruitment and well-managed growth.”

Such stability would be achieved by universities fully implementing the Agent Quality Framework and Fair Admissions Code of Practice; committing to sustainable levels of international student recruitment; investing in student experience; and diversifying to avoid single-market dependencies.

As for the government, the Compact would see the government demonstrating:

• A long-term commitment to stable, sustainable levels of international student recruitment and well-managed growth, including a commitment to retaining the Graduate Route in its current form;
• Greater transparency when reporting migration trends;
• A review of the removal of visas for dependants, acknowledging the impact this policy has had on equity, diversity and diversification and on the UK’s wider strategic objectives, particularly its effect on programmes designed for students with significant professional experience.

In addition, the report advocates for a coordinated plan to attract global talent; commit long-term to the Turing scheme; consider a future association with the Erasmus scheme; increase funding for global research collaboration; and partnering of universities and government to help mitigate ongoing security risks from hostile outside actors.

For additional background, please see:

Prospective international students are easily frustrated when they receive sub-par responses to the questions they send to schools and universities – especially a response doesn’t come for days or weeks.

The key role that response timeliness and quality play in students’ ultimate choice of institution underlines the importance of Edified and UniQuest’s annual Enquiry Experience Tracker – a global mystery shopping programme that assesses the responsiveness of schools and universities to student enquiries.

The 2024 survey report has just been released based on “shopping” of 102 institutions in 10 countries, and it reveals that many institutions in Europe and North America continue to miss crucial opportunities to engage with student leads. By contrast, universities in Australia and New Zealand generally offered better experiences to the student personas sending them questions.

How the shopping works

Six personas representing different countries and profiles (e.g., parent, professional, student, etc.) posed as prospective students and sent enquiries to a variety of institutions across the world. In total, 926 enquiries were sent through several channels including social media, the institutional website, and email. Shoppers represented important source markets including Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Nigeria, Philippines, and Vietnam.
 
The institutions shopped in 2024 were in the UK (35, representing about a quarter of UK universities), Australia and New Zealand (26, representing half of Australia’s universities and more than half of those in New Zealand), and Canada (24, including more than a third of HE institutions in Ontario). There were also 11 US institutions and six universities in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Spain.
 
The Edified/UniQuest team then scored and benchmarked the shoppers’ experiences against local and global competitors, looking at metrics such as responsiveness, communication quality, follow-up, and impact.

The highlights

• Like last year, Australian and New Zealand institutions offered better experiences than the global average, and the UK was next. Their average score also substantially improved compared with 2023.

• By contrast, Canadian and US institutions scored lower on average than the rest of the sample and performed a little more poorly than in 2023.

• The six European institutions averaged lower than the global mean, though they fared better than in 2023.

• The range of scores was wide: from 8 to 78. The report notes that five of the top 10 scores were from the ANZ region (New Zealand and Australia). The average score was 55, up from 51 in the previous two years of the survey.

• The good news was that nearly half of student-shoppers reported having a generally positive enquiry experience, and response rates were better. Institutions tended to do well on trustworthiness and helpfulness, and many offered clear next steps for the student to take.

• The bad news was that 1 in 5 enquiries did not get a response, and lacked a persuasive, inspiring tone. In addition, only 1 in 5 shoppers received a follow-up. This is a key missed opportunity as 6 in 10 students who received a follow-up said they were eager to continue engaging with the institution, more than double the proportion of those who didn’t.

Commenting on the findings from this year, Jennifer Parsons, chief market and partnerships officer at UniQuest, adds:

“With so much uncertainty around immigration policies, students are understandably anxious. Proactive, ongoing engagement has been crucial in calming these fears, and our data shows that students who experience this are three times more likely to enrol.”

Important data nuances

The report notes:

• “In ANZ, more than 9 in 10 institutions actively use WeChat to chat one-to-one with Chinese prospects. Only half in the UK and North America do the same – the rest missing a valuable opportunity to engage the Chinese market.”

• “Response rates in North America and Europe were lower. One in 4 students did not get a reply within the time allowed for this research (three weeks for email and one week for social media).”

• “In mainland Europe and North America, 50% of institutions did not follow up after any enquiry.”

• “Globally, social channels had the lowest response rates. Around 2 in 5 WeChat and Instagram enquiries went unanswered. Many more had auto replies asking students to enquire again through another channel like email. These trends suggest a critical blind spot.”

More insights are compiled in the following infographic from the report:

Service as competitive differentiator

Edified and UniQuest conclude:

“While rankings, price, course availability, and location are key drivers of study decisions, student experience cannot be underestimated. When students weigh up institutions with similar offerings, service can be the differentiating factor.”

The report’s top recommendations are to:

“Celebrate and recognise good practice
Student ambassadors can make a positive impression on prospective students. Encourage ambassadors to keep up the good work and to maintain a helpful, responsive culture. Share positive feedback and make sure students have access to the latest resources so they can keep providing accurate advice.

Set your tone to ‘warm’
Make sure students feel at ease by using warm, informal language. Use positive words like ‘pleased’, ‘welcome’ and ‘thrilled’ to show students you are genuinely happy to be hearing from them. Invest in regular professional development to help team members develop and practice student-centric communication skills.

Entice students deeper into the funnel
An enquiry is the opportunity for direct and personal communication with potential students. The core task is answering their questions, but, while you have their attention, capture their imagination. Share something powerful and inspirational – something extra that will draw students deeper into your recruitment funnel. Perhaps a campus tour video or upcoming event where they can meet academics and fellow students.

Be bold and ask for marketing consent
If students are interested enough in your institution to ask a question, chances are that they are willing to hear more about your events, scholarships or news in the future. Make the most of the opportunity to engage each new prospect and offer them a way to opt in to receive marketing communications from your institution. This can be as simple as adding a tick box to your web enquiry form or live chat registration or asking the question when on the phone.”
 
For more detailed data – including regional, persona, and channel findings – check out the full Edified/UniQuest Enquiry Experience Tracker Report for 2024.
 
For additional background, please see:

All projections point to continuing, strong growth in international student mobility through the rest of this decade and beyond. However, with government policy interventions in major study destinations, changing student preferences, evolving technologies, and heightened competition for talented students, new strategies and approaches around student recruitment are emerging.

“The idea that the US and the [established] foreign market can continue to dominate is a very old framework,” says Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. “There are many emerging countries, and students, policy makers, and others are looking at those countries.”

Through a series of keynote speeches at the inaugural ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London this week, insights from sector leaders in the “Big Four” study destinations – Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US – provided perspectives on the scale of transformation, and strategies that are reshaping student mobility.

While the US has started down a path toward more carefully coordinated action between educators and policy makers, practitioners in Australia, Canada and the UK are responding to new rules that are dampening international student demand.

Those new policy settings arise from an increasingly politicised environment around immigration in many study destinations, one fuelled by growing public concern around access to affordable housing and rising costs of living. The resulting downturns in student numbers across those major destinations has only highlighted how dependant post-secondary systems have become on international student fees.

Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE) says, “When we closed out 2023, we had over a million international students in Canada; that represents about 185% growth over the last 10 years. [That level of enrolment] is significant, it is visible. It certainly not only has a profile on campus, but certainly that visibility also extends to the host communities around our institutions.”

Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International, says, “The reason it creates a sort of political and policy problem for us is that funding is seen as the sole driver of global engagement and recruitment. Fundamentally, basing the long-term sustainability of universities – which should be seen as a real strategic asset for the UK – on a pretty dynamic and actually quite volatile funding stream cannot be in our interest, it cannot be in student interest, and it is certainly not in university or community interest.”

This sentiment is echoed in Canada, where the challenge is honing focus on new opportunities to drive strategic international growth.

“The reality is we can no longer afford to base institutions’ survival on how effectively they recruit international students and how many they can recruit,” says Ms Bezo. “What this does is afford us an opportunity to think about how we do this very intentionally, and how we recalibrate such that we can be much more sustainable as we look forward to the future.”

Redoubling efforts to ensure great student experiences is now central to the conversations between CBIE and its members. According to Ms Bezo, those discussions are already delivering innovation and dynamism. International departments are investing in capacity building with partners in-market, more face-to-face working, refreshed training, and immigration support. Student experience divisions are exploring stronger commitments to graduate outcomes, creative approaches to employment progression, and ongoing career development paths both within and outside of Canada.

Across the Big Four, sector leaders and educators have signalled their support for measures to strengthen quality controls and especially to improve the experience of foreign students during their programmes abroad. However, the nearly unanimous view across the sector is that the speed and reach of policy changes introduced to date has also created a great deal of confusion and uncertainty. And that it is that uncertainty, often as much as any new policy settings themselves, that has had the biggest impact on student numbers this year.

This is perhaps felt most urgently in Australia and in Canada. The situation remains very fluid in both countries where changes have often been introduced abruptly, catching the sector off guard or with insufficient detail to allow for proper forward planning.

That rapid change is on full display in Australia at the moment where a new foreign enrolment cap has been proposed for implementation in January 2025. However, the government must pass legislative amendments quickly in order put the cap into force and time is running short. Meanwhile, there are serious questions in play, including at continuing hearings of the Australian Senate, around the process and detail of the proposed limits, and it remains unclear how and when they will be implemented. If they are passed into law as they are currently set out, the projection is for very significant impacts in both the university and VET sectors, with, by some estimates, as many as 300 private training colleges at risk of closure.

“I have been in international education a long time, and this is the biggest own-goal I have ever seen.” said Professor Sarah Todd, the vice president (Global) for Griffith University. “We have constantly advocated to the government that if they went ahead with this, that they needed to reinforce the message that we welcome international students. There has been no positive messaging from the government at all, and I think that’s a real gap. So we’re trying to do it. I wrote personally to all of our recruitment agents last week about our enrolment limit because I know how much confusion there is.”

Universities UK, meanwhile, is working to engage a newly elected Labour government with meaningful dialogue to celebrate international collaboration and mobility exchange as “cornerstones for the sector,” and create a more sustainable model that holistically recognises the multifarious benefits of universities.

“As a university community, the thing that we really need from our own governments more than anything else is stability, policy stability is really, really critical,” says Mr Arrowsmith, “But in return for that, we have to ensure that we are sustaining and maintaining very high levels of trust of what we are doing, both in recruitment but also in international collaboration more broadly.”

Similarly, Ms Bezo sees a drive in Canada to be realistic about available study opportunities and where they will lead students in the future. “The reality is, is that not every student will be in a position to come into study in Canada,” she adds. “But we want to be realistic about those opportunities and to be very transparent about that pathway even when it comes to post-graduation. I think the other conversation that we’re having in the Canadian context is how do we ensure that we’re supporting our students in that post study environment.”

“How do we better align Canadian post-secondary education with the Canadian economy and what does that actually look like in terms of the student experience?” she added. “How do we use the challenges that we’re currently facing in the international education sector to work together business, our institutions, our communities in terms of developing a strategy to really harness the potential of that global talent, both for the benefit of Canada, but also where we’re creating meaningful opportunities for growth for those students.”

For Dr Aw, honesty is fundamental for any US institution considering international recruitment. She says, “We have been very clear with our institutions: do not bring international students if you do not have the structures in place to do right by those students and their families. That is dishonest and it’s going to backfire in ways that will be unprecedented.”

Despite international students accounting for a modest 5% of the total US student body, compared with 30%, 24%, and 22% for Canada, Australia, and the UK respectively, the US has no comprehensive international education growth strategy, yet.

Underscoring the vital importance of a sustainable and coordinated approach to student mobility, Dr Aw says, “It is in the national interest to diversify and grow international students in the US, and it is essential that student success is the heart of strategy to achieve that growth.”

To catalyse a national effort, NAFSA is leading a US Success Coalition for International Education. Its 40 members advocate as a group for collaboration, communication, diversification, capacity building, commitment, and expanding employment pathways for international students. These are common threads across the Big Four, despite their distinctions.

That many of our colleagues across these influential study destinations are gritting their teeth and holding on tight to get through some challenging days this year is undeniable. Shifting perceptions, policy instability, funding crises, and geopolitical tensions make for a white-knuckle ride but the outlook from the Big Four illuminates a path that prioritises student outcomes, advocates for stable policy, explores new opportunities, and connects with employers and labour markets to forge a sustainable future for student mobility.

As Ms. Bezo says, “Through the challenges that we’re walking through, this kind of fire before us, I think we see a lot of really, really unique opportunities.”

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Campus France has announced that France hosted 430,466 international students in 2023/24, a year-over-year increase of 4.6%. This continues a trend of gradual growth: last year the increase had been 3%.

By contrast, Canada’s foreign enrolment expanded by 29% in 2023 (and 30% in 2022), and the UK and US posted growth of 12% each in 2022/23. Germany – which is experiencing more interest than ever among international students – saw its foreign enrolment grow by 5% in 2023.

Donatienne Hissard, Director-General of Campus France, said:

“France, like any other major host country, continues its growth of mobilities and the competition to attract talent is fiercer than ever.”

About 1 in 6 students in French higher education are now from other countries. France’s uptick was driven in part by renewed demand from the Asia-Pacific region. This region had been stagnant last year. Importantly, French institutions saw 6% more students from China and 12% more from India.

The top 10 markets are very stable compared with last year, but two trends are significant: Morocco declined for the second year in a row (-4%) and Algeria grew by 7%. The following shows enrolments and year-over-year growth. Many of the Top 10 countries have grown by over 40% over five years: Italy, Spain, Cameroon, and Lebanon. Lebanon, especially, has become a more important market, sending 90% more students in 2023/24 compared with five years ago, despite a small decrease in 2023/24.

1. Morocco: 43,350 (-4%)
2. Algeria: 34,270 (+7%)
3. China: 27,125 (+6%)
4. Italy: 21,040 (+5%)
5. Senegal: 16,955 (+11%)
6. Tunisia: 15,255 (+7%)
7. Spain: 12,090 (+4%)
8. Cote d’Ivoire: 11,770 (+10%)
9. Lebanon: 11,235 (-3%)
10. Cameroon: 10,880 (+11%)

Business schools are increasingly popular

Among different types of higher education in France, universities claim about two-thirds of foreign students, but growth is very modest (2% year-over-year). Business schools and schools of engineering, by contrast, attracted 11% and 9% more international students last year. Over five years, business schools have increased their share of the total from 10% to 15%.

Moving up

Campus France points to the Shanghai university rankings to illustrate the quality of the French higher education system:

“The latest Shanghai ranking released on 15 August revealed once again the excellence of French higher education institutions. For the fifth year in a row, France is third worldwide in number of institutions in the Top 50. This outstanding performance also shows with the presence of 25 French institutions in the World Top 1,000 and 18 in the Top 500. Among institutions, the University of Paris Saclay, stands out, with a 12th position worldwide, a 3 ranks increase compared with 2023. It is the best position ever reached by a French institution since the creation of the ranking. In addition, the University of Paris Saclay reached the leading position in continental Europe, confirming its position of national leader.”

Focus on India

Indian students are increasingly looking beyond Canada and the UK for study abroad. A recent QS report explored Indian students’ motivations and preferences when they consider France – which more and more are doing (+12% more in France last year). The survey for the report drew 8,511 responses from Indian students.

The QS research showed that business schools are particularly attractive to Indian students, with 31% of Indian students considering France wanting to study Business and Management, 11% higher than the global average. Almost half of prospective Indian students are exploring postgraduate programmes in France, compared with 21% interested in undergraduate courses.

Rankings and reputation matter a great deal to Indian students: 51% said a French institution’s high ranking was important, compared to the global average of 33%, and 52% said the university must have a good reputation, compared to the global average of 45%.

QS also notes:

“Of [all surveyed international students] looking to study in France, 39% said high graduate starting salaries are indicative of a HEI’s teaching quality. For Indian students, this percentage rises to 50%. Independent ratings and university-organised work placements are all more important to Indian students than the global average. Indian students are also more likely to be worried about getting a job when thinking about studying abroad.”

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The Chinese government is again reporting on youth unemployment rates after have suspending such data releases for the past several months – but now using a revised method that excludes students from the data. The news is not great: the National Bureau of Statistics found that the jobless rate for 16-24-year-olds rose to 18.8% in August 2024, up nearly two percentage points compared with July, when it was 17.1%. These are historically high rates of unemployment for the college-aged cohort in China.

There are rising numbers of jobless Chinese between the ages of 25 and 29, as well. For this age bracket, the rate was 6.9% in August, up from 6.5% in July.

Faced with limited prospects and a faltering economy, many young Chinese are choosing to keep studying rather than try to find a job. This is reflected in the fact that top Chinese universities are reporting more graduate than undergraduate enrolments. At top-ranked Tsinghua University, for example, there were 3,800 new undergraduates admitted in September versus 9,925 postgraduates.

Some Chinese who opt to keep studying will find spots in Chinese universities, while others will look abroad. But the average Chinese student-consumer looks different than in the past, less buoyed and confident given the relatively sluggish Chinese economy and more willing to look beyond elite educational brands. As we reported in July 2024, there is sometimes a misconception among foreign educators that many Chinese families can still readily fund study abroad to the same extent they have in the past. The reality is more complicated.

Slowdown is an adjustment for Chinese consumers

China is the world’s second-largest economy and had set a modest growth target of 5% for 2024. Analysts now expect this target to be missed. The economy grew by 4.7% between April and June 2024

At the root of the issue is an extended property downturn, deflationary pressures affecting the retail sector, and stagnant salary levels. China’s manufacturing output is relatively stable, but domestic consumer demand is weakening as consumers put more of their money into savings. In February 2024, the consumer savings rate hit an all-time high – at the same time as consumer confidence came close to an all-time low.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, told Reuters:

“A negative wealth effect from falling property and stock prices, as well as low wage growth amid various industries’ cost cutting is dragging consumption and causing a pivot from big ticket purchases toward the basic ‘eat, drink and play’ theme consumption.”

Speaking with NBC News, Wang Ran, a 27-year-old designer, said she was changing her spending habits:

“[Before] I pretty much bought things whenever I saw something I liked. But this year, I might have to consider the financial aspect a bit more.”

The Chinese middle class ballooned from 3% of the population in 2000 to over half in 2018, according to the Pew Research Centre. Given China’s huge population (1.4 billion), that’s a lot of middle-class citizens feeling the pinch of a tougher job market and an economic downturn.

Youth anxiety is easily spotted in China these days, says NBC News:

“On social media, users share hacks to save money. Public libraries are filled with working-age people who are searching job sites and polishing résumés or who just need somewhere to go.

Young urban professionals also appear to be driving a surge in sales of lottery tickets, which reached a record 580 billion yuan ($80 billion) last year, according to data from the Finance Ministry. About 85% of purchasers were ages 18 to 34, compared with about 55% in 2020, the Chinese research firm MobTech reported.”

Value for money replaces fixation on luxury brands for many

A trend known as “reverse consumption” – which involves prioritising value for money over brand name – is taking hold in China. This is a marked change from the obsession with luxury brands that we saw in the years of China’s rapid economic expansion. Young people are driving the trend.

Jie Zhou, writing for PayXert, a payment services provider, says that reverse consumption is not a “consumption downgrade.” She says:

“Consumption downgrading typically involves reducing spending and opting for lower-quality and more affordable products. In contrast, reverse consumption takes a different approach. It aims to maximise happiness while minimising expenditure. This approach also values personal taste and individuality, with consumers willing to invest in unique designs and experiences.”

Ms Zhou advises foreign brands to understand the evolving mindset of Chinese youth. She said, “reverse consumption and evolving consumer behaviour pose new challenges like declining sales … however, they also offer opportunities for enhancing competitiveness and fostering sustainable development.”

Specifically, she adds:

“Businesses can better adapt by focusing on the following:

• Cost-effectiveness & competitiveness: Chinese consumers tend to more and more prioritise quality and cost-effectiveness over brand names. Brands should understand competitors’ offerings and optimise their sales strategies, particularly in terms of price/performance.

• Brand value & social responsibility: Consumers now seek brands with meaningful philosophies, social responsibility, and sustainability practices.

• Personalisation & differentiation: Tailored products and services appeal to Chinese consumers, especially youth.”

Western institutions face increasing competition from Asian universities

We have reported in the past couple of years about Chinese families’ increasing price-sensitivity regarding study abroad, and their consequent interest in more affordable destinations such as Thailand.

The Economist Intelligence Unit also explored this trend in July 2024, providing a chart that illustrates declining Chinese enrolment trends in Western destinations other than the UK and another chart that shows growing Chinese demand for study in Asia.

Show me the money

No matter where an institution is – North America, Europe, or Asia – it will have to prove its programmes lead to positive job outcomes, in China or elsewhere.

Su Su, senior project consultant at BONARD’s China branch, said in a webinar earlier this year that:

“The so-called return-on-investment is a term I hear mentioned more and more by parents and students when planning overseas studies. Parents will consider affordability and employability when choosing a school and will appreciate internship opportunities in local companies.”

There is a growing feeling in China that study abroad may not provide the ROI that families are looking for. The Economist adds:

“The allure of overseas study derives principally from the ability to secure a higher income through a foreign education. However, this has become less true over the years, as the actual average income of those who have overseas experience has been declining. In addition, students who return to China tend to find work in sectors such as information technology and finance, which have been facing crackdowns from the Chinese authorities in recent years, considerably limiting their wage growth. Chinese students may also avoid overseas experience if they want to get into the civil service system, amid the intensifying anti-espionage movement in China.”

Key takeaways

It is going to take more to recruit Chinese students now than in the past – even now, when many Chinese students are choosing to continue to study rather seek a job. The idea that Chinese students are rich and driven purely by rankings and prestige is outdated – the market is much more complex than that going into 2025.

Careful, targeted strategies based on current market intelligence are needed. Chinese regions and cities offer varying levels of opportunity. What works in one area may not work in another. Be prepared to lead with graduate outcomes, internships, career services, and scholarships. It’s a new day in China, and students there are more savvy, cautious, and complex in their decision-making about study abroad.

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