Category: Education

International schools in target student sending markets have long represented a fruitful recruitment source for foreign educators, and there are now 14,460 of those schools around the world serving more than seven million students.
 
There has been significant growth in the sector over the past few years. ISC Research’s 2024 report, How Do International Schools Prepare Students for Higher Education?, shows that compared with five years ago, there are 10% more schools, 13% more students, 15% more staff employed, and 23% more fee income. Collectively, international schools generate about US$64 billion every year.

The implications for universities are huge. ISC notes:

“Data analysis from ISC Research indicates that approximately 580,000 students will have exited English medium international schools during the summer of 2024. With prior research indicating that over 90% of these students are expected to enter universities around the world, international schools are an invaluable source of prospective undergraduates for higher education institutions.”

Where are the schools?

More than half of international schools are in Asia.

Regional nuances

ISC presents highlights on where students from four important sending markets tend to go after completing studies at an international school:

• In China (1,103 schools enrolling close to 400,300 students), the top choice is the UK, and demand is falling somewhat for the US due to safety concerns or geo-political tensions.

• In Ghana (114 schools enrolling over 37,000 students), students tend to prefer the UK, US, and Canada, but are increasingly interested in European destinations because of their lower cost and simpler visa processes.

• In India (913 schools, close to 420,000 students), ISC notes a growing trend of staying in-country after studies because of an increase in foreign-affiliated universities and because students are worried about global economic instability. This trend is important given the hundreds of thousands of Indian students abroad today. In fact, over a million Indian students were hosted by just six countries in 2023: Canada (420K+), US (268K+), UK (173K+), Australia (126K+), and Germany (42K+). A dip from this market (which Canada is already experiencing) would be exceptionally difficult for many universities.

• In Saudi Arabia (332 schools, over 366,000 students), students are most interested in degree studies in the US, which is enabled by bilateral agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia. That said, Saudi Arabian enrolments in US colleges have declined every year since 2016. In 2022/23, the most recent year for which IIE Open Doors data are available, it was the only top 10 market to decline for the US (-12%).

The role of the college counsellor

An important section in the ISC report details the role of the college counsellor at international schools. That position is “integral to the higher education application process for students,” says ISC, and so foreign recruiters would do well to establish a good connection with the college counsellor at any of the international schools they are interested in.

ISC elaborates:

“In international schools, where students apply to universities in multiple countries, each with their own application system and requirements, college counsellors are invaluable in navigating these complexities, ensuring students are well prepared for success.

Most international schools and their college counsellors promote ‘best fit’ selection; they carefully match students’ study and pathway goals to an institution’s ethos, course offer, learning model, extracurricular opportunities, location, and study outcomes.”

The report includes a case study illustrating the responsibilities of Jinane Helou, a university counsellor at ABA Oman International School. Ms Helou’s responsibilities “go beyond academic guidance, focusing on holistic development, personalised support, and fostering strong relationships with universities.” The following excerpt provides an example of how ABA Oman interacts with universities:

“Each year universities are welcomed to ABA Oman to attend university fairs exposing students to a wide range of global higher education institutions. ABA Oman also has a partnership with the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts in Switzerland, which sets aside places for ABA Oman students each academic year. Such partnerships not only enhance the school’s reputation but also provide students with a smoother transition to university life.”

Curricula and exams

One or more of the following curricula are offered at most international schools.

The following chart indicates the qualifications preferred by students at international schools. The A/ International A levels are naturally attractive to student with their hearts set on study in the UK

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Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen recap some recent industry news, including the pressing need for better data in international education and the ever-more-pressing need for faster and more effective responses to student enquiries.

This month’s episode features a panel discussion – recorded live at the ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London last month – on how the sector is adapting to new policy settings in some of the world’s major study destinations.

That conversation was moderated by Edified’s Sara Sandford, and features Bobby Mehta, Pro Vice-Chancellor (Global Engagement) at the University of Portsmouth; Rachel MacSween, Director of Partnerships and Stakeholder Engagement with IDP; Marie Braswell, the Associate Vice President Global Strategy & Market Development for Centennial College; and Andy Howells, the Chief Marketing Officer of NCUK.

We conclude with a closer look at China as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

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In 2022/23, only about half of student housing demand in the UK was met by purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA). That rather telling statistic was shared by Karen Best, head of accommodation at PwC, during a featured panel at the ICEF Monitor Global Summit. Ms Best drew on PwC’s recent research in the field, alongside its insights into the financial condition of higher education institutions, to conclude that PBSA stock was likely to continue to lag behind student demand going forward.

Ms Best went on to outline that, of the roughly 740,000 PBSA beds in the UK, just under half (44%) are owned and operated by the universities themselves. The remaining 56% are privately owned and operated.

She believes as well that private investment is the more likely path to building capacity in terms of student housing: “Given the current and likely future financial pressures that the sector faces in the UK, there will continue to be constraints on all universities, even the largest, most reputable, and financially strong ones,” she explained. “This is causing universities to prioritise [capital spending] in [academic programming]. I expect to see universities looking for further support from the private sector to deliver new beds and to support refurbishing of a lot of the university-owned stock…While there are and will continue to be new PBSA developments, the ability to deliver affordable accommodation in the places it is needed most continues to be a challenge.”

The affordability dilemma

The panelists all agreed that housing costs remain a significant issue for students. While price inflation has eased somewhat in the UK this year, there have been significant price hikes in the years following the pandemic.

“We’ve seen huge increases in pricing over the last couple of years, including some double-digit increases in some cities last year, which is quite staggering,” noted Ms Best.

Meanwhile, Hannah Chappatte, the founder & CEO of Hybr reported that there has been a huge rent increase this year in the HMO market (which refers to privately owned housing, a shorthand for which is HMO, or “a house in multiple occupation”). She noted as an example the case of Bristol where, “What we saw was that a lot PBSA developments were paused because of the impact of COVID. So the HMO market had a heyday over those two or three years where a lot of students that would have gone into PBSA went into the HMO market. And we saw consistently rents increasing by 15% year on year.”

The panel discussion revealed that there is a lot of nuance and granularity in the student housing market, and that you cannot measure the health or balance in the market simply by counting beds and heads.

“It can lead you down the wrong track if you are looking at here is how many rooms there are and this how many students there are,” said Ms Chappatte. “Really, you have to break it down into segments: this is the type of student, this is their budget, this is what they are looking for, and this is the type of accommodation we have in each city. Often you will see that it is not just a ‘rooms’ issue, it all comes down to price. It all comes down to budget and that is what we have to tackle: thinking creatively around how can we build more affordable units; not just more rooms.”

Not just how many but where

In spite of continuing strong student demand, PBSA stock continues to lag considerably behind demand in many study destinations due to a number of factors, including delays in the building planning process, labour shortages, and inflation in construction costs. Another inflationary impact for developers is the relatively high cost of financing in a climate of rising interest rates.

Ms Chappatte made the case that international education needs to draw lessons from other industries in its search for solutions. “We need to give investors conviction around how they can build and develop affordable units,” she said. “In our sector, we need to look at hospitality because hospitality has done that really well, You have Travelodge and Premier Inn that are really affordable brands that are also huge drivers of revenue. So why can’t we have the same in the residential sector where we have more self-service, more self-managed types of just rooms rather than these amenity spaces? I think there is so much that we can do [in that area] and that we are still so far behind in terms of residential versus hospitality.”

The panel acknowledged that prices typically fluctuate according to local supply and timing of booking — with the best rates being available for advance bookings and with prices tending to increase the close the student gets to programme start. This can be offset, however, in cases where local supply increases, causing prices to soften.

But the discussion also revealed that price is closely connected to location in student decision making. Ms Chappatte adds, “We’ve done a number of focus groups this year and rent is number one and location is number two, in terms of what [students] are prioritising in their search.” We can understand as well that that trade-off is carefully made and students definitely weigh proximity to campus very seriously in their decision.

Who is responsible?

The panelists also stressed the need for more and better collaboration between institutions, developers, students, government, and community stakeholders in order to boost local housing stocks.

“Universities need to speak to accommodation providers more,” concluded Arunima Dey, research manager with The Class Foundation. “How many students are they expecting? How many beds do they need? But it’s also extremely hard to build sustainable, future proof housing and provide all those amenities that students appreciate and keep rents affordable. [So we] need incentives for developers and investors in order for them to have a varied portfolio, and those incentives essentially needs to come from municipalities and [other levels of government]. Students are seen as a transient group but if there is more student housing than there is also more housing for all other demographics as well.”

She added, “For example, one of our partners, RESA, is a private PBSA provider in Spain. They [set a target] of having 70% of their beds to be affordable beds. They are able to do so because they have good ties with universities and with the city government. Operators and investors in the current climate cannot just do it by themselves.”

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FAST FACTS

Capital: Kathmandu

Population: 29.6 million (2024)

Youth population: 21% of the population is aged 16–25, and more than half the Nepali population is under the age of 25.

Median age: 23.5

GDP: US$44.1 billion (2024)

Currency: Nepalese rupee (NPR)

Language: Nepali is spoken by 78% of the population, and Maithili is the next-most spoken language. However, over 123 languages are spoken, and in some districts, more than half of residents are non-Nepali speakers.

Main language of instruction: In general, students learn in Nepali in public schools and English in private schools. There is controversy around how this impacts students for whom Nepali is the second tongue and English the third.

English proficiency: “Moderate” and climbing according to the EF Proficiency Index.

Religion: The vast majority of Nepalis are Hindu, and a small proportion are Buddhists.

Geography: Nepal is a country in South Asia. It is landlocked: China is to the north and India shares borders in the south, east, and west.

Academic year: April to April.

Outbound students: Over 100,000. In 2021, the outbound mobility ratio was 19%.

Preferred destinations: Australia, Japan, Canada, US, UK, India.

Top fields of study for Nepalis looking at study abroad: Japanese language programmes in Japan, followed by accounting, management, business, information technology, science, computer science, engineering, health, and science and technology, according to the number of No Objection Certificates (NOCs) issued by the government of Nepal between July 2023 and July 2024.

Scale of opportunity

In the past five years, approximately one in every five Nepali students pursuing higher education chose to study abroad. Nepal’s outbound mobility ratio was 19% in 2021, compared with less than 2% for China and India. This provides a clear indication of how high demand is for study abroad in this small South Asian nation.

At home, Nepali students seeking degrees do not have many high-quality tertiary options. None of Nepal’s nine universities and three medical institutions recognised by Nepal’s Ministry of Education make it into the major world university rankings, and erratic quality and delivery of education is a feature of the tertiary education system.

The high outbound student mobility ratio mirrors a workforce trend, which is that hundreds of thousands of Nepalis go abroad to work every year. DW.com reports that according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), “remittances from migrant workers contributed up to 26.6% of Nepal’s GDP, valued at an estimated $11 billion, in 2023.” In many cases, those remittances are helping families to send their children abroad to earn degrees and training and to receive more career opportunities than Nepal can offer them.

What’s behind the high level of outbound?

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ranks Nepal 146 of 193 countries on the Human Development Index. The ranking is improving but is still low enough that it suggests why many Nepalis move to the Middle East to work – and increasingly to Europe, which is viewed as a more prestigious destination. The Nepal Economic Forum reports that four in five Nepali households have a family member abroad.

There is a tension here: Nepalis are moving out of their country, which leads to a degree of brain drain, but once abroad, they are sending money back home that contributes to Nepal’s national GDP and helps families afford costs of living (the average hourly wage in Nepal is less than US$4). The heavy reliance on remittances also means that Nepal is incredibly vulnerable to external shocks, such as tightened immigration settings in preferred destinations or economic downturns in those countries.

Private consumption, fuelled by remittances, accounts for 80% of Nepal’s GDP. The World Bank notes that real GDP growth in 2024 accelerated to 3.9%, compared with 2% in 2023. It says that despite challenges – including low public infrastructure funding including in the education sector – it is more optimistic about Nepal’s future after successful elections in 2017:

“There is a newfound optimism for greater political stability, inclusion, good governance and sustainable growth. The new federal structure presents unprecedented opportunities for Nepal to reset its development storyline, as outlined in the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD).”

Generally low quality of education is also a major reason Nepali students go abroad. Stella Thapa, a student at the Kathmandu University School of Management, explains on LinkedIn:

“Universities of Nepal such as Tribhuvan University (TU) face ongoing issues that affect academic progress and student satisfaction. Problems include delays in publishing exam schedules, irregularities in exams and academic calendars, and extended completion times for degree programmes. Many students who aim to finish their studies in four years often find themselves graduating in five to six years, which can be disheartening and demotivating. However, few universities offer quality and advanced educational programmes. Students often question whether their qualifications will translate into promising job opportunities and successful careers in Nepal.”

Especially scarce in Nepal are high-quality degrees in engineering, medicine, and technology.

Working while studying is important for many Nepali students

The Nepal Economic Forum explains that in addition to remittances, many Nepali students can afford to study abroad by working overseas:

“It is the students who fund their studies themselves by working. This is evidence worldwide when we see Nepali students working in restaurants across the US, UK, Europe, Japan or Australia.”

The organisation also reports that 85% of Nepali households own their own house. Not paying rent frees up some income for study abroad.

The latest Global Student Living Index (2022) found that Nepali students are highly price sensitive, especially about accommodation. Price was the top factor for Nepali students looking for accommodation (87% vs 61% for all international students), and “kitchen size and facilities were much more important to these students than most internationals (71% vs 57%).”

Where are Nepali students going?

Nepal’s Ministry of Education issued 112,595 foreign study permits (known as No Objection Certificates, or NOCs) to students in the last fiscal year. Ms Thapa, in her post on LinkedIn, reports that those students went to 66 different destinations, but 80% went to just five countries: Japan, Canada, Australia, UK, and the US. A total of 34,370 NOCs went to students going to Japan, followed by those headed to Canada (15,980), Australia (14,370), the UK (13,340), the US (11,260), and South Korea (6,890).

Other destinations for which more than 1,000 NOCs granted were India, UAE, Denmark, Finland, France, and New Zealand.

ApplyBoard illustrates the remarkable growth of Nepali students in Canadian and US higher education institutions over the past few years in the charts below.

ApplyBoard also notes that Nepali students remain interested in the UK despite the inability of most to bring their family due to the dependant’s ban imposed by the previous government. Over 8,500 Nepali students received a main applicant visa for the UK in 2023 (+83% y-o-y). In Q1 2024 alone, 27% more visas were granted to Nepali students compared with Q1 2023. What’s interesting about the 2024 trend is that it stands in contrast to a 22% decline in visas granted to all international students in the UK.

Australia is the outlier among the Big Four destinations, with policy changes in Nepal and Australia contributing to a big drop in Nepali student numbers, especially in the vocational sector.

Meanwhile in Japan, the number of Nepali students surged to over 45,000 in 2023 according to Nikkei Asia, making Nepal the second largest sending market after China. The surge also displaced Vietnam as Japan’s number two sending market. Many are going on to work in sectors such as hospitality and nursing. Even after Japan raised international student tuition fees in summer 2024, the cost of studying in Japan is still much less than in the Big Four destinations.

What are projections for growth?

A chart from a new Sinorbis study, Asia Atlas: The future of international student marketing in Asia, is a dramatic illustration how many Nepali students will head abroad for higher education in the next few years. From 23rd place in 2022 (40,560, Nepal is projected to become the 7th largest sender of students in 2025 (113,395).

Sinorbis presents a similarly impressive graph projecting Nepali higher education enrolments in the US

Sinorbis data also show that Nepali students are especially drawn to healthcare-related fields in the US

Popular levels of study

Good graduate programmes are in short supply in Nepal, and so there is strong demand for graduate as well as undergraduate studies. IIE Open Doors data for 2022/23 shows that 42% of Nepali enrolments were undergraduate (+39% y-o-y) and 37% were graduate (+21% y-o-y). WENR reported in 2022 that “mobility is expected to grow particularly at the graduate level—a sector that is underdeveloped in Nepal with less than one percent of university campuses offering Ph.D. programmes.”

In 2023, Nepal’s government stopped issuing NOCs for language and vocational programmes, but a popular backlash forced it to reverse the ruling. It did, however, create a list of eligible foreign institutions for students interested in language or vocational training. Grace International provides a primer on how students must apply for an NOC here.

Pre-tertiary education system

The devastating earthquakes in Nepal in 2015 set back the progress the country had obtained in expanding access to education. Many schools were destroyed, more than 9,000 killed, and more than 22,000 injured. In 2022, only 27% of students completed upper secondary schooling, falling to 10% among the poorest households and rising to 59% in the richest households, according to UNICEF. In a reversal of historical trends, girls now have a higher completion rate at every level of schooling than boys.

In terms of achievement, students who speak Nepali at home have better outcomes than those who speak another language and then go to school to be instructed in Nepali. The dearth of instruction in other native languages of Nepal are a subject of great controversy. Middle class and wealthy Nepali households tend to send their children to schools where English is the main language of instruction.

Free primary and secondary education is meant to be a right for Nepali students, but the reality is that at the secondary level, there are significant fees parents must pay (e.g., books, uniforms), which is part of the reason for the high dropout rate among poorer Nepali students.

Private schools are the preferred option for those who can afford them. The share of private schools is 20%, while public (“community”) schools account for 80%. As for enrolments, 27% are in private schools and 72% in public. The Nepal Page explains that:

“The education system has been so privatised that a huge learning gap has opened up between those that can afford private schools and those that can’t. The facilities at private schools are noticeably better. Many families try to live in Kathmandu where they have access to the best schools. Children at these school dress in crisp, clean uniforms and study in English and Nepali.

There is huge discrepancy between private and public schooling a major social injustice. Uttam Sanjel, the founder of Bamboo School’s for the poor told AFP. “There are two kinds of schooling. The public school students do not know how to speak in English even when they leave school. The private school students can send emails to their parents from grade two. This is not how it should be. It is wrong because it will create two kinds of citizen.”

Clearly, lower-income Nepali students will be highly motivated by scholarships because they may not be able to study abroad without them.

There are several international schools, which can be explored here.

Many Nepali students will need foundational programmes to set them up for success in higher education due to uneven quality of education at home or language issues.

Tertiary education

Nepali students do not have many high-quality tertiary options in their country. None of Nepal’s nine universities and three medical institutions recognised by Nepal’s Ministry of Education make it onto major world university rankings. However, US News ranks Tribhuvan University 962nd in the world and considers its clinical medicine, environment/ecology, and public, environmental and occupational health programmes to be worthy of recognition.

The full list of universities is:

• Tribhuvan University
• Nepal Sanskrit University
• Kathmandu University
• Purbanchal University
• Pokhara University
• Lumbini Bauddha University
• Sudur Paschimanchal University
• Madhya Paschimanchal University
• Agriculture and Forestry University

Under the umbrella of those public universities (except for Kathmandu University, which is privately funded and autonomous) are hundreds of colleges and campuses. Many of these are privately owned. The private colleges are considered to offer higher quality education than public ones.

There are also a growing number of foreign-affiliated tertiary programmes in Nepal, with institutions from Scotland, UK, Malaysia, Poland, Switzerland, and Thailand active in this space. A full list can be found here.

The outlook

The British Council forecasted mobility patterns for 30 major student sending markets in an early-2024 report. It found that the growth rate will slow for most of those markets. However, Nepal was categorised as having high growth potential along with high market risk, in part because of economic and political volatility in the country.

The top motivations for Nepali students are scholarships and the ability to work during studies. It is worth considering a scholarship programme to solidify a presence in Nepal for many reasons, not least because Nepal has one of the world’s fastest growing populations of 18–22-year-olds along with too few job prospects. The youth unemployment rate hovers at 20% and is the third highest in South Asia after Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Until the government is able to commit more budget to education, it is likely demand for study abroad will remain very high in Nepal.

For additional background, please see:

Editor’s note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London, 23 September 2024.

International students are now building their plans for study abroad with a much greater emphasis on outcomes. They are asking a crucial question: Will my education abroad translate into a meaningful career? “It’s not just about securing a job,” says Nick Miller, chief marketing officer of QA Higher Education. “Students are looking for a return on investment.”

“The prominence of employability as a critical decision factor is affecting student migration and education offerings around the world,” agrees Janet Ilieva, director and founder of Education Insight. “The rise of intra-regional mobility, for example, may be partially explained by reduced disposable family incomes post-pandemic and a desire to be closer to local labour markets.”

At the same time, governments in major study destinations are beginning to link student mobility to domestic labour market trends. In Canada, for example, some post-graduate work permits are now tied to sectors with long-term skills shortages, such as healthcare and technology. Marie Braswell, associate vice president of Centennial College, explains, “Canada is really clearly sending messages that they’re looking for students who meet labour market gap eligibility.” The same could be said of the Optional Training Program in the United States, which grants an extended post-study work term to graduates of STEM programmes. Policymakers around the world are watching these developments as more countries seek to rapidly expand their international student numbers.

As a result, institutions, and their recruitment strategies, now need to better align with student goals, skills gaps, or other labour market objectives, both in study destinations and in the students’ home countries. “Universities need to be more deliberate about aligning their curricula with the specific capabilities needed by employers in the markets they serve,” says Dr Florian Hummel, vice-rector for international affairs at Germany’s International University of Applied Sciences.

But here’s the challenge. Meeting demand requires data on labour market projections, employment opportunities, and graduate outcomes. And that data is often hard to access or unavailable.

“Knowing employer needs is crucial for aligning recruitment with labour markets,” says Jessica Turner, chief executive officer, QS. “The growing interest in AI, big data, and cybersecurity programmes is understandable because they offer clear employment outcomes,” adds Mr Miller.

“Recruitment is becoming more data-driven,” continues Ms Turner. But the trend will demand more accurate and timely data to achieve its potential. As Nannette Ripmeester, director of performance benchmarking for Europe and North America at Etio, says, “Without data it’s like making decisions without knowing what you’re talking about.”

Mr Miller explains how advanced recruitment strategies are already benefitting from more strategic approaches. “We’ve analysed what employers are looking for in high-growth sectors and have then worked with universities to help develop courses and programmes that incorporate the relevant skills and certifications,” he says. “Data enables us to match our degree titles, course content, and modules to the skills employers are looking for, not just what students are searching for.”

Similarly, embedding internships, placements, and partnerships into degree programmes is now a key advantage for recruitment strategies since students are often looking to gain skills or fund their studies. Across the UK, for example, universities are increasingly delivering courses in London, Birmingham, and Manchester, where there are more employers and work experience available. Northumbria University’s decade-ago decision to deliver courses in London, for example, was a strategic decision to enhance employability outcomes for students in a tangible and marketable way.

Viewing recruitment through the lens of economic demand is valuable, but more nuanced insights are necessary for educators to create the conditions that support the diverse ambitions of international students. As Joanna Kumpula, head of international education and integration support at Finland’s Tampere University, says, “It’s not just about placing students in dynamic labour markets. International students from all regions are becoming much more discerning. They are now looking for niche programmes and specific career paths, and institutions must recognise these individual goals rather than relying on broad assumptions.” Furthermore, international students are seeking knowledge and experiences that extend beyond practical and theoretical course content.

“Today’s job market requires more than just expertise in one’s field. Graduates must also possess communication, collaboration, and problem-solving skills,” adds Ms Kumpula, who regularly engages with businesses to gain an understanding of their future priorities. “This holistic approach is crucial for preparing our students to succeed in an increasingly complex global workforce,” she explains. Judith Lamie, pro vice-chancellor international at Swansea University, agrees and adds, “Making clear what students gain during their degree that will specifically help them to secure roles in the future has become a primary focus.”

To offer valuable, hands-on experience that enhances employability, institutions should strengthen their relationships with businesses and industries. Not only will these partnerships and alliances attract international students, they will also serve a broader purpose in that they support the sector’s advocacy efforts with policy makers and community stakeholders.

The relationship between international student recruitment and labour markets is no longer a secondary consideration – it is central to the future of the sector and the potential to both meet student expectations and help address critical labour market gaps is immense. Connecting policy goals with identified skills shortages in this way opens the door to a new approach to international recruitment – one that keeps employability and student outcomes in focus throughout.

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Australia’s Labor government got the green light today from the Senate Standing Committees on Education and Employment to push through its highly controversial legislation to cap new international student numbers as soon as January 2025. The cap will allow Jason Clare, Labor’s Minister for Education, to cap foreign enrolment at the institutional and/or course level or cancel a class or course outright.

The Senate committee considered the testimony of independent experts and sector representatives who pointed out serious flaws in the bill, which is called the ESOS Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024. Despite data that clearly showed an ill-considered methodology informing the way new study permits will be allocated, the Senate recommended only a few changes to the ESOS amendments bill, including:

• Scrapping course-level caps for universities and Technical and Further Education (TAFE) institutions so that limits would only be imposed at the institutional level for those providers (this would still leave the Minister the ability to impose course-level restrictions on private colleges).
  
• Requiring the education minister to consult with ESOS agencies, the immigration minister, and providers before setting limits.
  
• Exemptions for “specific classes of students, including by citizenship, from enrolment limits in instruments and notices.”

Reaction to the bill

There is little disagreement among Australia’s international education community that measures were needed to improve the integrity of the sector. However, most feel that the ESOS amendments bill is not designed to do that, but rather is a thinly veiled tactic for strengthening Labor’s position on immigration ahead of an election.

The Labor party holds a majority in parliament, but by a very slim margin: it occupies 78 of 151 total seats in the House of Representatives. Three Coalition senators disagreed that only a few amendments are needed for the ESOS amendments bill, and senators representing the Green party offered a scathing indictment of the entire bill, within the larger Senate report.

The report included references to sectoral leaders’ opinions on the bill:

• “Luke Sheehy, CEO of Universities Australia, described the Bill as a ‘political smokescreen’ that is being used by the government to ‘gain an upper hand in the battle of migration ahead of the next election.’

• Group of Eight CEO Vicki Thomson similarly reported that ‘migration is shaping up as a key battlefront in the lead-up to the federal election, and the university sector is shaping up to be the fall guy, unfairly and unjustifiably.’

• Phil Honeywood, CEO of International Education Association of Australia, stated that the caps ‘have been designed as a politically blunt instrument to address a spurious narrative—that the international students are the principal cause of the current rent increase in Australia.’”

The review report also includes a quote from Felix Pirie, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Policy and Research, from the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), who had told the Senate committee:

“While perhaps well intentioned, the bill includes provisions that are, to be frank, a job-killer. They risk further damaging Australia’s capacity and reputation, also straining Australia’s strategic and international relationships. It’s crucial that the government engages meaningfully with all sector participants before implementing any such reforms.”

The University of Monash submitted an objection that the planned 2025 implementation could “potentially have disastrous consequences due to the fact that many providers have already sent offers to prospective students for the coming academic year.”

Opposition Coalition comments in the report

Coalition senators Matt O’Sullivan, Slade Brockman, and Sarah Henderson provided additional comments in the report. In general, these senators support the aims of the bill and believe that in some institutions, the surge of international students is compromising Australian students’ education. They provided the example of a domestic student reporting how overwhelmed he was in a group project dominated by the use of Mandarin over English.

However, the senators pointed out serious flaws with the bill and emphasised how much damage is being done to the sector by the Labor government:

• “We thank submitters which have worked so hard to raise legitimate concerns with the committee about this bill and regret the deep distress and uncertainty which some providers have suffered as a result of the government’s decision to put forward such a poorly drafted bill and indicative total enrolment limits about which there was no consultation.”

• “We hold deep concerns about the lack of adequate safeguards to ensure caps are allocated appropriately, fairly and in the national interest. The Coalition has consistently raised concerns that the Government’s student caps scheme is riddled with incompetence, secrecy, uncertainty and unfairness.”

• “It is clear the Government has looked after the big end of town. Despite the Government’s spin, the fact remains that the 2025 enrolment cap of 61,000 for the Group of Eight universities is almost exactly that same as international student enrolments for these universities in 2023. This represents a 12 per cent increase from 2019 … In contrast, regional universities have still been hit hard. After international student enrolments crashed to just 8,949 in 2024 principally as a result of Ministerial Direction 107, regional universities have received a total cap in 2025 of 15,900 … a significant reduction of 16 per cent compared with 2019.”

• “We also learned about the appalling treatment of many private higher education and VET providers which some submitters argued was nothing more than an ideological attack on hard-working Australians who had built successful, reputable businesses and were providing highly valued education services to both domestic and international students.”

• “Coalition senators strongly echo the calls from stakeholders for the calculation methodology and data used to be made publicly available and published to ensure there is full transparency and accountability of the Government’s methodology.”

Opposition Greens’ reaction

Senators representing the Green Party offered a withering review. They begin by summarising objections made to the before the Senate ruling:

“The committee heard again and again that:

• This Bill is a migration policy disguised as an education Bill.
• It is a poorly thought through and chaotic plan to cap international student numbers.
• There was little or no consultation with the sector on the methodology.
• It scapegoats and harms international students for a housing crisis they did not create.
• It allows for unprecedented ministerial overreach and intervention.
• It damages Australia’s reputation as a destination for international students.
• It will result in significant job and financial losses.
• Capping international student numbers has little to do with quality and integrity.”

Their own opinions include:

• “Of particular frustration throughout the inquiry process into this Bill has been the timing and lack of data provision, and the failure of the government to produce any modelling on the impact of capping international student numbers … had the Inquiry not been extended on two occasions, there would have been no opportunity to interrogate the data relied on, the formulas created, and the numbers themselves.”

• “In recommending that this Bill be passed, the government has completely ignored the overwhelming concerns highlighted by the sector that the Bill will cause major and long-lasting damage to Australia’s tertiary education sector.”

• “The government is crushing higher education in a bid to look tough on migration in the months before a federal election. International education, international students, and universities will become collateral damage as a result of this terrible policy.”

• “Ian Aird, CEO of English Australia, gave evidence that ‘this Bill has been drafted on the run, without meaningful consultation of those impacted, without consideration of its economic impact or the jobs it’ll cost and without concern for students.’ He went on to say that the Bill ‘claims to be about quality and integrity, but it does nothing to require, encourage or incentivise quality.’ This is a problem in and of itself; however, in the absence of any additional government funding, the more immediate question is how universities will manage with such a significant drop in revenue.”
  
• “Secondly, universities whose international student numbers will be capped quite drastically teach the courses which address the skills shortages, hence undermining the government’s own argument. For example, Western Sydney University’s states in its submission that ‘most of the 1,350 international students who studied nursing and midwifery with us last year have gone on to work in Western Sydney’s overburdened hospitals’. Yet, their international student numbers have been reduced by 18% from 2024 to 2025. Similarly, the Australian Catholic University is the largest educator of teachers and nurses in the country, and they are facing a 53% reduction in international students from 2024 to 2025.”

• “The level of ministerial overreach in this Bill is alarming. The Minister has unfettered power to set provider-level caps. The penalties for breaching these caps involve automatic suspension of registration, and the Minister also has the power to automatically cancel courses deemed not in the public interest. Lukey Sheehy, Universities Australia CEO, described this as ‘ministerial overreach to an extent we have never seen before.’”

Bill will go through

There is very little hope left for the education sector to see more revisions to the ESOS amendments bill before it passes. There is a clause in the bill that requires an independent review of Part 7, but not until 2026:

“This Clause … must consider:

• The impact on providers of the enrolment limits resulting from the amendments;
• The impact of those enrolment limits on net overseas migration to Australia and housing availability;
• The impact of those enrolment limits on the quality of education offered to international and local students.”

This clause suggests that universities and vocational providers will not see an independent expert assess and report on the damage to the sector – which has been ongoing due to previous restrictive Labor legislation – for more than a year from now.

For additional background, please see:

Editor’s note: The following piece draws heavily on commentary and insights from industry leaders speaking at the ICEF Monitor Global Summit in London, 23 September 2024.

International student mobility has historically been concentrated among the “Big Four” destinations of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. Over the past several years, however, there has been a shift towards a wider field of study destinations. That change is being driven both by changing student preferences and by the strategic goals, demographics, and labour market needs of emerging destinations.

New research from INTO University Partnerships shows that prospective students are applying to more programmes than ever before – typically four or five – and to more institutions in more destinations than in previous years. This trend is projected to continue in the long term, and it means that institutions investing in enquiry responsiveness and admissions processing will see more applications converting into enrolments. Destinations in which universities are climbing global rankings – e.g., China – will also see more conversions.

Students’ openness to alternatives reflects their changing priorities, including :

• Affordability;
• Fast visa processing;
• Geographic and cultural proximity;
• The expansion of English-taught degree programmes in non-English-speaking countries;
• Opportunities to work during and after studies in the host country.

At the same time, destinations such as Japan and South Korea are working more actively to recruit foreign students in part because of declining domestic populations of college-aged students and the related need to attract talent in key areas of local labour market demand.

“As international students seek to understand what return they can expect on their investments, we see that decisions across every major source market are increasingly based on cost,” says Peter Thompson, vice president of data analytics at INTO University Partnerships. For Jessica Turner, chief executive officer of QS, this creates a competitive point of differentiation for emerging study destinations: “In contrast to students seeking education in the Big Four, students setting their sights elsewhere tend to prioritise affordability over reputation and teaching credentials.”

Economic opportunities are a common draw

Dr Florian Hummel, vice-rector for international affairs at the International University of Applied Sciences (IU) in Germany, says, “The economy is one of the main reasons international students come to Germany. Our strong career prospects and clear post-study work rights are some of the reasons that a growing number of students from the Indian subcontinent are choosing to study at IU.”

A mix of factors drives choice

Cost of living influences many students, but more expensive destinations can still compete to significant market segments by virtue of other attributes. Living costs in Japan are relatively high, for example, but Japan welcomed an additional 50,000 international students in 2023 compared to the year before.

More students are also taking sustainability, national sentiment toward international students, and mental health into account when making their decisions. These issues are key areas of focus across emerging markets, and they could already be contributing to increases in student mobility to destinations such as Germany, France, and Finland.

Pros and cons

Greater access to a more diverse range of study abroad opportunities is good news for students. But Mr Thompson cautions that higher volumes of applications can also pose a risk to the sector’s reputation globally. For one, administrative functions will be under more pressure. And students may also delay decisions as they hedge their bets across destinations. This means that, more than ever before, speedy and effective response to enquiries and applications will be absolutely key.

Competing for foreign talent

Countries outside of the Big Four are seizing the opportunities of a changing international education landscape, with destinations across Asia and Europe growing in popularity. Ms Turner notes, for example, that the number of international students in China doubled over 10 years from 2013 and remains healthy despite declines in the pandemic. Further, with a healthy contingent of those students coming from other Asian countries, China continues to establish itself as an important player in intra-regional recruitment.

Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan are on upward trajectories as well, with Japan aiming to host 400,000 international students within the next decade. South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Lee Ju-ho declared last year that, “Now is the time to attract foreign talent strategically.”

In Germany, the government is the primary funder of the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD). Recognising the long-term benefits of global collaboration and welcoming the brightest minds, the DAAD is the world’s largest funding organisation for international exchange of students and researchers. In China, the government issues tens of thousands of scholarships for international students each year and is investing in infrastructure through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

More English language programmes outside the Big Four

Edwin van Rest, chief executive officer of Studyportals, says, “The European Union’s decade of growth in this area is winding down. Now we are entering a decade of Asian expansion. South Asia has expanded its ETPs more than twofold since 2019. China, the Middle East and North Africa, and the rest of Asia have doubled their offerings. The Big Four are losing market share, dropping to 78% this year from 82% in 2021.”

That said, the English language is and will remain influential in Europe. Leaders such as Dr Hummel, are investing in ETPs as part of their growth strategies. One of Germany’s largest universities, the IU has approximately 200 programmes. Nearly half of those programmes are now offered in English or German.

Indeed, educators across Europe are buoyant. France and Germany each enrolled more than 400,000 students last year and international strategies in Spain are generating results. The prospects of European institutions beyond the UK are extremely healthy overall: these destinations have become more attractive to international students from all major source countries in the last year. As we see in the table below, education agents report interest in these European destinations has surged more than 90% among students from South Asia, and the Middle East and Africa.

Agents in China, Hong Kong, and Macau also report that interest in non-UK European institutions has increased nearly a quarter. However, these agents have seen even greater growth in the appeal of institutions in Southeast Asia and the rest of Asia.

Policy drives students to alternatives

Mr van Rest says that many students from sending countries that are the most affected by new policy settings in Big Four destinations are now looking elsewhere: “What they find are more attractive conditions in terms of work rights, affordability, and proximity.” This may partly account for the dramatic surge in interest in New Zealand and Ireland this year: student applications to these countries via QS increased 7.2-fold and 1.7-fold respectively, compared to last year.

Flexible delivery modes disperse demand

New strategic approaches to international education in emerging markets demonstrate the global interconnectedness of the sector, which is ever more visible through expanded transnational education (TNE) activity, including regional hubs, remote delivery, and branch campuses. The UK dominates TNE, accounting for 75% of the market with around 580,000 students enrolled. Australia and the US are also key players, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. As a host country and as an education exporter, China is rapidly expanding its TNE offering and is becoming an increasingly influential player in the field.

Student mobility beyond the Big Four is being defined by strategies to deliver practical outcomes and relevant experiences. As the executive director and chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, Dr Fanta Aw, says, “There is plenty of room in a growing space. We should be thinking about the 20 major countries instead of the Big Four, because students should have choices to get the best education that is right for them.”

For additional background, please see:

The United States Mission to India announced recently that US diplomatic posts in the country have opened an additional 250,000 visa appointments for Indian travellers, including tourists, skilled workers, and students. US immigration officials report processing “record numbers” of applicants at the country’s five consular offices in India so far this year.

As of 30 September, more than 1.2 million Indians have travelled to the United States year to date in 2024, representing a 35% increase over the same period in 2023. The US Mission adds that, “At least six million Indians already have a non-immigrant visa to visit the United States, and each day, the Mission issues thousands more.”

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden set an ambitious goal to improve and expedite the visa process and I’m proud to say that we have delivered on that promise,” said US Ambassador Eric Garcetti. “Our consular teams at the embassy and four consulates work tirelessly to ensure that we meet the surging demand.”

Needless to say, this will be important development for Indian students hoping to study in the United States, and for easing the well-documented backlog for study visa applicants. Prior to the September announcement, wait times for visa interview appointments in India had approached (or exceeded) 200 days. The latest posted wait times for F-visa interview appointments (as of 9 October 2024) have been considerably reduced, with average waits indicated as 42 days for applications lodged via New Delhi and 66 days for those filed in Mumbai.

The situation has been so serious this year that it has been a focus point for lobbying by the U.S. for Success Coalition, which has been urging Congress to take action to reduce the backlog in key markets in the Global South, notably in India and Africa.

“Yes indeed our advocacy is helping to move the needle,” says Dr Fanta Aw, the CEO and executive director of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. “We want to be sure international students who are admitted to institutions in the US are able to get in for appointments and we appreciate the work of Consular Affairs to continue to prioritise students. We however need to do better on reducing visa denials so as not to deter students wanting to come study in the US. NAFSA and the U.S. for Success Coalition is committed to working with the State Department on this important issue.”

The move also sharpens the attractiveness of the US to Indian students, at a time when changing policy settings in Canada and the Australia are already triggering a shift in demand.

For additional background, please see: