Category: Education

After a hotly contested and close-run campaign, former President Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election this week in the United States. The president-elect will be sworn in as America’s 47th president in January 2025.

Mr Trump’s second term will have wide-reaching ramifications for the United States and the wider world, and it may affect flows of international students into the US.

First Trump presidency characterised by deep suspicion of foreigners

Mr Trump’s first presidency, from 2016 to 2020, was marked by a notable decline in foreign student interest in the US and by more restrictive policies affecting student mobility from major student markets.

It featured the infamous “Travel Ban 3.0,” which restricted access to study in the US for students from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, North Korea, and Venezuela, and a rise in visa refusals for Chinese students. At a private dinner in 2018, Mr Trump declared that “almost every student” from China studying in the US was a spy. International enrolments in the US dropped by 12% during the first Trump presidency, and denials of H-1B visa extensions rose from 3% to 12%.

Writing in Forbes before the election, Stuart Anderson opined: “If Donald Trump regains the presidency, international students and applicants for employment-based green cards may find Trump’s immigration policies will affect them more profoundly than many today imagine.”

International students undeterred

However, prospective international students surveyed this year were notably indifferent to what the results of the election would be, as shown in the following chart from Studyportals/Intead.

In the weeks before the election, the US was virtually tied with Australia as the most-preferred destination according to IDP research conducted in August–and September 2024 with 6,000+ student respondents in 114 countries.

The sector reacts to the election results

Industry leaders pointed to a clear need to educate the new government about the value of international education. Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, said:

“For more than 75 years, NAFSA has advocated for policies that expand the reach and impact of international education. We remain committed to educating the incoming administration and Congress on the regulatory changes and policies that will strengthen the field and extend opportunities for global learning ….

With increasing competition for the world’s best and brightest students, and only a small fraction of U.S. college students studying abroad, US global competitiveness is at stake. Working with Congress and the Trump administration, we will advocate for policies that strengthen the U.S. role in research, workforce development, knowledge diplomacy, and national security. International education is a vital asset to the United States.”

Whatever it will mean for international enrolments in the US, Mr Trump’s win may lead to growth in the number of US students studying abroad. Studyportals registered a huge spike in interest from US students in November 2024, as shown in the charts below. In particular, more US students are exploring study in the UK, Canada, Ireland, and Germany.

Domestic higher education landscape may be transformed

Some observers anticipate that Trump’s second term will see a greater focus on domestic reforms of higher education. A 6 November report in Inside Higher Ed, for example, outlines that, “A second Trump administration will likely ramp up scrutiny of colleges and universities and empower advocates for sweeping reform of the sector during a historically unstable time for American higher education. As enrolments flounder and public disillusionment with college cost grows—and after a year of negative public attention over campus protesters and federal policy blunders on student debt and financial aid—that shift could have transformative implications for higher ed.”

Need to highlight the value of global education

Responding to a LinkedIn post by NAFSA’s Dr Fanta Aw, Nannette Ripmeester, i-graduate’s director of client services for Europe and North America, wrote:

“We, the entire global higher education community … need to explain to the communities around us, from politicians, policymakers, to the general public why higher education and study abroad matter. We talk amongst ourselves, now let’s reach outside of the international education field to take people on a journey and underline the value of our work.”

Miriam Feldblum, executive director of the Presidents’ Alliance, issued this statement:

“In a post-election environment of uncertainty and anxiety for many on our campuses, our commitment to students, staff, and faculty from around the world remains steadfast, as does our belief in their essential role in our nation’s economic vitality and competitiveness.”

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The following article is adapted from 2025 edition of ICEF Insights magazine, which is freely available to download now.

This year’s sweeping policy changes in Australia, Canada, and the UK have created major challenges and confusion for thousands of schools, universities, agents, and students. But they also underline the significance of goals that many in our industry have already been pursuing, such as improving student experience and being more deliberate and targeted in marketing.

Important conversations are taking place across our sector about lessons learned from the events of this year and how to move forward, including at the inaugural ICEF Monitor Global Summit that took place in London in September 2024.

This article is based on the dialogue at that event, and even if you haven’t been directly affected by volatile policy settings, read on for insights on fresh approaches to recruiting and hosting foreign students.

Focus on student fit

Without doubt, meeting enrolment targets and diversifying sending markets remain essential goals. But there is a growing consensus that there must be an overarching mission to attract students most suited to programmes, national policy parameters, and economic trends.

This mission can be accomplished by placing a greater emphasis on recruiting for student fit.

This approach involves creating protocols and processes designed to build a carefully targeted prospect pool. Admissions offers are then sent only to students who have met criteria qualifying them as likely to acquire a study visa and complete programmes successfully.

At the end of the day, students enrolled in programmes that match their goals, academic preparedness, and financial means are much happier than students who – because they weren’t well screened – soon struggle with courses, mental health, language issues, cultural adjustment, or a higher cost of living than they can afford.

Sharpening the recruitment lens makes particular sense in destinations that have witnessed rapid growth in international student numbers over the past few years. That growth put pressure on housing, programme capacity, and student support services. It has made it more difficult for some institutions to apply quality controls and improve graduate outcomes.

How to measure success

Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, says that “economic value is absolutely important, that is indisputable, but we have to put students at the centre.”

She elaborates: “This means our institutions need a student success model [to guide them]. Outcome data is absolutely important. Pathways to employment are absolutely important. Fit is very, very important. And we’ve been very clear with our institutions: Do not bring international students if you do not have the structures in place to do right by those students and their families.”

Students have their own criteria

Joanna Kumpula, head of international education and integration support at Tampere University in Finland, points out that students, too, are thinking more carefully about fit: “International students are becoming much more discerning … they are now looking for niche programmes and specific career paths, and institutions must recognise these individual goals rather than relying on broad assumptions.”

Better screening leads to better outcomes

Marie Braswell, associate vice president of global strategy and market development at Canada’s Centennial College, says: “Institutions often look at student success only in terms of enrolment numbers, but we need to assess whether students are achieving academically and integrating socially.” Ms Braswell emphasises that diversification strategies remain important, but at the same time, “We also have to think about economic feasibility: Are students able to meet the cost-of-living requirements for a visa?”

Judith Lamie, pro vice chancellor for international engagement at Swansea University in the UK, explains that firm entrance requirements are required to ensure an institution is selecting students who are ready for programmes: “We should be careful about lowering entry standards for international students … this is not sustainable and sets them up for failure.”

Ms Braswell and Ms Lamie’s points emphasise that offering a “quality” experience starts well before a student is admitted. It starts as soon as the student makes contact, whether through the website, social media, an agent, or institutional staff.

Strengthening the narrative

“We know that demand for international student mobility is going to be there,” says Bobby Mehta, pro vice-chancellor for global engagement at the University of Portsmouth in the UK. “Understanding where it is, what it is, and how we can work together to [recruit effectively] in a safe, compliant, and organised way is the challenge we need to address as we go forward. [This approach] will provide national and global assurance of international education’s broader value.”

“We need a new narrative around international higher education and the global role of
universities, adds Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International. “It’s about foregrounding the academic, social, and cultural benefits that come from internationalisation, and bringing those to the fore in the public discourse and public policy.”

The shift from quantity to quality

A shift to student-fit recruiting may change the amount of budget or staff time allocated at various points along the enrolment funnel – especially at the beginning of the transition. Preparing for recruiting will become almost as important as recruitment campaigns, because:

• Ideal student personas will need to be developed;
• Marketing and admissions staff must be crystal-clear on policies, education systems, and assessment standards in target markets;
• Agents must be thoroughly vetted and receive excellent training;
• Marketing materials, social media, and website content and structure will likely need tweaking to encourage only best-fit students to apply;
• Student journey mapping and CRM training will be essential to keeping all teams collaborating and nurturing the most promising leads.

Once the shift is underway, international recruitment will be more efficient than any kind of volume strategy. Along with a promising prospect pool, you will also have much better ratios of students approved for visas, completing programmes, landing high-skilled and well-paid jobs, and transforming into powerful alumni.

What’s more, your admissions staff can concentrate on reviewing higher quality applications rather than sifting through mountains of unsuitable ones.

Don’t forget the data

Student fit is also about better data collection and analysis so you can make evidence-based decisions to drive your recruitment plans and track what is and isn’t working. Which overseas schools and cities are yielding the ideal student profile for your programmes? Which agents? If you don’t track what is and isn’t working, the result will be sub-optimal.

“Recruitment is now much more datadriven,” says QS chief executive officer Jessica Turner. “Knowing employer needs is crucial for aligning recruitment with labour markets.”

Collecting data on post-graduation outcomes – outcomes that will improve as you commit to student-fit marketing – is also incredibly important. This is because:

• Students want to know what proportion of graduates go on to get jobs – it proves ROI;
• Employers are impressed by good graduate outcomes;
• Peak body associations are in dire need of more data to show governments the value of international education – and that means:
  • Quantifying value in more ways than revenue or economic contribution;
  • Demonstrating that international students are indeed essential to filling skills gaps and innovation.

NAFSA’s Dr Fanta Aw underlines the need for better data by saying: “As international education increasingly works to link student mobility to larger economic goals, the necessity of data to help address skills gaps and meet labour market demands is increasingly obvious.”

Dr Aw provides examples: “The fact that we can cite that one in four of the United States’ billion-dollar start-ups was founded by former international students is powerful. We can show that 42% of the major companies making advances in AI have been established by former international students. That’s important. We use this data to prove the value of international education.”

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The findings from the 2024 edition of the ICEF Agent Voice survey reveal that prospective international students are increasingly concerned about barriers to getting a study visa. Along with affordability and employment outcomes, ease of getting a visa is determining where students choose to study abroad, and it is a factor in the rise of alternative destinations outside the “Big Four.”

This year’s survey focused on areas including recruitment projections, employability, enrolment challenges, destination trends, and student motivations. In all, 1,020 agents across 111 countries responded between April and September 2024.

Why is the survey so important?

As ICEF’s vice-president for the Americas, Ian Cann, notes:

“Agents have a distinct perspective on the marketplace. Because they are dealing directly with students, in some cases from the earliest stages of their study abroad planning, they tend to see shifts in demand or other crucial market trends sooner. We see this coming through loud and clear in this year’s Agent Voice findings, and we greatly appreciate all the insights that responding agents from around the world have shared in the 2024 survey.”

Top findings

While cost-of-living issues are always an issue for a large segment of prospective students, even more pressing this year is the ease of getting a visa (44% versus 32%, respectively). Work opportunities – which are often paramount as a pull factor for study abroad – came in third in this survey, indicating just how difficult agents and students are finding it to secure visas right now.

That said, the report notes that students are overwhelmingly favouring countries that offer post-study work rights: “This has led to students shifting their focus away from Canada, the UK, and Australia – all of which have enacted restrictions – to countries seen as more favourable, including New Zealand, Germany and, at least for now, the US.”

More applications to more destinations

In keeping with findings from other major research this year by IDP, INTO University Partnerships, and others, students are expanding their list of destinations when applying for programmes abroad and are losing interest in Australia (-44%), Canada (-38%), and the UK (-22%) compared with last year. Three-quarters (74%) of agents said they have supported student applications to new destinations in the last two years (up from 63% in 2023).

The survey report adds:

“Alongside policy issues, push factors include both the accommodation shortfall and the cost-of-living crisis, both of which disproportionately affect the Big Four (Australia, Canada, UK, and US). Pull factors include an increasing desire among students to remain closer to home, the aggressive internationalisation strategies of countries such as South Korea and Japan, as well as the growing quality of education around the world, with record numbers of institutions from countries such as India entering the QS rankings this year.

In this context, it is clear that the Big Four are no longer able to rely simply on their historical positioning as desirable destinations … they will need to develop a coherent strategy that focuses on student outcomes in order to maintain their status.”

Agents clamour for more training

A major determinant of agent performance is the amount of direction and training they get from partner institutions. Without this support, they are less likely to be able to highlight key competitive differentiators; to advise students on admissions standards, costs, and best-fit programmes; and to assess whether a student is truly a good fit for a programme/campus. As the following chart shows, agents are eager to receive more training from their institutional partners.

Key takeaways

If there is a major theme emerging this year, it is that many students are experiencing significant barriers in their quest to study abroad, whether these are visa rejection rates and processing delays, new policies around dependants’ rights and post-study work opportunities, cost-of-living increases, or all these combined.

While institutions cannot control the decisions made by immigration departments, there are some things they can do to help students who are experiencing problems while trying to submit applications. A recent survey by Keystone Education found that students are often frustrated by unclear or missing information on institutional websites (63%) and lack of responses to their queries (49%). Keystone advises institutions to check the content of their website to make sure information up-to-date and complete.

There has never been a more important time to nurture student leads from first enquiry all the way to enrolment, and to ensure agents have the training and information they need to send qualified students to your institution. Check out the latest version of ICEF Insights magazine for a special feature devoted to best practices in this regard.

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A new IDP survey highlights the scale of the impact the Canadian government’s new immigration policies are having on colleges and universities in the country.

More than 200 international education stakeholders responded to the September 2024 online survey, with most working at universities (37%) or colleges (26%) and three-quarters holding management or executive leadership positions.

Intervention was necessary, but policies aren’t solid

While most respondents felt that government interventions to slow the flow of international students into the country were at least moderately necessary, 68% said they do not approve of the policies themselves (40% “somewhat disapprove” and 28% “strongly disapprove”).

Government gets a failing grade on engagement

More than 8 in 10 (81%) said the federal government’s engagement with international education stakeholders was “poor” (27%) or “very poor” (54%). Just 7% said it was “fair” and 3% it was “good” or “very good.”

Speaking with CBC News earlier this month, Sandy MacDonald, president of Holland College in the province of Prince Edward Island, said:

“We had no input. We were just told, ‘This is the way it’s going to be. The policy is, I don’t think, well thought through — and it’s certainly been poorly implemented. Where the problem called for a scalpel, the federal government used a chainsaw.”

Impact on colleges and universities

In total, 87% of respondents said they have been negatively impacted (44% “very” and 43% “somewhat”) by the policies in such areas as operational revenue and ability to recruit overseas.

The survey findings jibe with a mounting number of Canadian media stories about colleges and universities closing campuses and programmes and letting go of staff as international student numbers plummet. Studyportals registered a year-over-year 35% drop in demand for Canada in September 2024 based on pageviews on its site.

Of the survey findings, Simon Emmett, IDP’s chief partner officer and chief executive officer (UK) said:

“Canadian institutions clearly recognise policy changes are necessary to improve quality standards in international education, but what is needed now is clarity from the government so institutions can focus on providing the best student experience. Collaboration between government and institutions is essential to avoid long-term damage to the sector.”

New campaign to remind students of the benefits of Canada

The sector survey also revealed a strong desire for a coordinated national strategy for the Canada education brand overseas. In response, IDP has launched a sector-wide video campaign titled “There’s a future in Canada for you.” The campaign features current international students and alumni from more than 30 institutions talking about their positive experiences in Canada.

Christine Wach, senior vice president for partnerships and stakeholder engagement at IDP North America, said: “We have listened to our students and the sector, and we are actively working with institutions on a nation-wide campaign that will showcase the excellent study opportunities in Canada.”

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