Category: Education

By 2041, experts expect that the number of domestic high-school graduates in the US will drop by 13%. This is due in large part to a projected steady decline in the 18-year-old cohort beginning in 2025. This so-called “enrolment cliff” stems from a weakening fertility rate among US women over the past few decades, as couples weigh the pros and cons – e.g., financial, lifestyle-related, environmental – of having children. It fell to an all-time low in 2020 and was less than half the rate observed in 1957.

The shrinking pool of domestic students is expected to present huge challenges for some colleges (e.g., smaller ones whose quality is not captured in rankings) and to be less of an issue for highly selective colleges. It is also expected to hit certain states and regions more than others, with the South the only area of the US where the pool of 18-year-old students is expected to increase in coming years.

The dynamic is exacerbated by a growing sense in the US that higher education does not always provide enough of value relative to its cost. Among those who cannot get into and afford a highly selective college, direct entry to the workforce is an increasingly popular option.

Shorter, less expensive options on the rise

Another appealing option for many high school graduates is skills acquisition via certificate or micro-credential. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released a report in April 2024 that found that the largest segment of certificate-completers during the 2022/23 academic year was 18-20-year-olds. By contrast, in 2022/23 “fewer students earned an associate degree than in any of the last ten years, and bachelor’s earners declined to their lowest level since 2015-16.”

The report found that:

• Of all programme completers in 2022/23, 19.5% graduated with a certificate, 24.1% graduated with an associate’s degree, and 56.4% graduated with a bachelor’s degree.
• The number of students who progressed from one credential to another fell, and this was mainly because fewer students are completing an associate degree and then progressing to a bachelor’s degree.

Worry is natural, but it isn’t enough

The projected enrolment cliff – and data on showing the ebbing attraction of degrees – is naturally alarming for many educators. There is a widespread belief that school and programme closures are inevitable, especially for smaller schools and for humanities-based departments. But many industry analysts are arguing for less resignation and more strategic thinking.

For example, Nathan Grawe, an economist and professor at Minnesota-based Carleton College, told Inside Higher Ed: “People shouldn’t wish away the real challenges of the situation … but while resignation is not the right response, neither is fear.”

He continued:

“If we choose to continue as if it’s just business as usual, I don’t know how colleges could expect to not see major enrollment declines. The good thing about higher education is we have an enormous lead time to try doing things differently—it’s not as if birth rates dropped 17 percent in one year. We just have to choose to put ourselves on a new path.”

Laura Bloomberg, the president of Cleveland State University, was also interviewed and said that her university laid off staff this year due to enrolment declines and a US$400 million deficit. She noted that her institution is not alone in having clung to an overly optimistic perspective:

“This is happening all over the country, and that’s because we budgeted based on hope. Hope is great, but it isn’t a strategy. Some people might call that the tyranny of low expectations. I think it is accepting the demographic reality of the region and focusing on putting our energy where we can make a difference.”

So: what could make a difference? What can colleges do other than resign themselves to programme closures and staff reductions?

They can approach recruitment and operational priorities in fresh ways. For example, they can:

(1) Identify new domestic recruitment targets. In a report released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), president Demarée Michelau notes: “There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience.”

(2) Adopt student-centric strategies. Institutions can shift budget allocations to focus on student services and retention strategies, and encourage students to progress from one level to the next. They can also add more flexibility into degree programmes and expand blended and distance programme delivery to capture a larger segment of students.

(3) Reimagine branding. Rankings are not everything. In fact, they have lost importance relative to graduate outcomes and value for money over the past several years. Schools should explore what they are best at, how they can communicate these strengths, and strengthen connections with employers. Students are much more likely to attend a less selective college if there is proof that its programmes lead to desirable jobs.

(4) Invest more in international student recruiting and hosting. This means expanding the focus well beyond India and China. At Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, the international student population makes up 17% of all enrolments, but China and India do not appear the school’s top five markets. Renee Loayza, the director of international admission, told NAFSA’s International Educator magazine: “We’ve found success focusing on regions such as Latin America, the Caribbean, and Europe to build strong, personal relationships with students and parents … having high school counselors and educators who know Lynn is crucial for navigating these complex markets.”

Ms Loayza’s comment speaks to the importance of a “best-fit” strategy in international recruitment. This approach prioritises quality over quantity of student, and it relies on an investment in data systems (e.g., CRM) and top-quality agents and other partners to communicate competitive advantages to the students most likely to succeed at the institution.

NAFSA CEO Dr Fanta Aw says:

“We do believe there is ample capacity at U.S. colleges and universities to welcome international students. However, institutions must be committed to creating the structures, systems, and environment for them to thrive. That starts with approaching international students with the right motivation and perspective—to see them as true assets to the campus, classroom, and community on a multitude of levels, not to simply plug a gap in enrollment or tuition dollars.”

Carleton College’s Nathan Grawe adds:

“We shouldn’t think of it as a light switch, like everybody wants to study in the United States, so, if we need to, we’ll just flip that switch. We’re going to have to work for it.”

For additional background, please see:

We return this week to something of an annual tradition here at ICEF Monitor: a quick recap of some key takeaways from the year gone by.

Our sector is extremely vulnerable to public opinion

We’ll resist the temptation to revisit the many different ways in which this lesson played out across some of the world’s top study destinations this year. But suffice to say that changing public sentiment about immigration – alongside historically high levels of global migration and national election cycles in many of the world’s democracies – proved to be a potent combination for the international education sector in 2024.

In the process, we learned that our sector needs to engage with the communities we serve, and with policymakers, in a completely different way. We need to tell a different story of the value and impact of international education – one that is measured not just in student numbers and GDP but that is also closely aligned to broader policy goals and public interests.

We need better data

For all the statistics and insights we have about international student mobility, there are still some significant gaps in terms of the data we have about how students are recruited, where and how they study, how they perform in their programmes, graduation rates, and student outcomes.

This is the year in which we learned once and for all that the absence of comprehensive, transparent, and up-to-date data creates vulnerability for the sector. At the very least, it undermines the impact and narrative around the benefits of international education. And it impairs our ability to build community and stakeholder support for international student mobility.

Recruiting for student fit

We began to see real momentum over the course of the year towards a more strategic and targeted approach to international student recruitment.

This amounts to a more selective and sustainable recruitment strategy that places a greater emphasis on recruiting for student fit. It involves building a carefully targeted prospect pool. And it allows admissions offers to be focused on students who have met criteria qualifying them as likely to acquire a study visa and complete their programmes successfully.

At the end of the day, students enrolled in programmes that closely match their goals, academic preparedness, and financial means are much happier and more successful in their studies, and are more likely to report good graduation and career outcomes. These are the hallmarks of a quality, sustainable student programme, and they provide a foundation for building greater community and stakeholder support.

Students will move to better options

For every study destination that introduced more restrictive policies this year, there were many more opening their doors wider to prospective students. Simply put, the global student market continues to become much more competitive.

This year, prospective students applied to more programmes than ever before and to institutions in more destinations than in previous years. This trend is projected to continue in the long term, and it means that institutions investing in enquiry responsiveness and admissions processing will see more applications converting into enrolments.

More broadly, countries outside of the Big Four study destinations are seizing the opportunity of a changing international education landscape, with destinations across Asia and Europe growing in popularity. Those shifts in student demand are happening surprisingly quickly, and they represent a clear signal that we are entering a new era of heightened competition for the best and brightest students.

We are heading for more regulation

The surge in student mobility since the pandemic has tested many of the quality assurance measures in place across our sector. Student services have struggled to keep pace, the global stock of student housing has been overstretched, and several models for recruiting and teaching international students came under greater scrutiny this year.

This is all leading towards greater regulation of the sector. In some countries, this has amounted to additional reporting or compliance requirements for providers alongside calls for increased regulation of education agents.

It happens that a lot of great work has already been done to strengthen standards of practice for education agents, and to advance the professional qualifications of agency-based student counsellors. Those initiatives have largely occurred in three key areas: codes of conduct, agent training, and agency accreditation.

We can expect to see a lot more expansion and adoption of those mechanisms in the year ahead, and, in an ideal world, a good deal more harmonization and collaboration among the many self-regulatory efforts across the sector.

Thank you

Last but not least, we want to take this opportunity to thank you for reading and learning along with us. We look forward to a year of continued growth and development in 2025, and to bringing you the latest insights on international recruitment all through the year.

It was clear by the end of November that Australia’s controversial ESOS amendment bill – complete with its widely criticised methodology for establishing national and institutional caps on international enrolment – would not pass into law. The bill was effectively withdrawn at that point, and the international education sector has since been waiting to see how the government would respond.

The answer arrived today in the form of a 19 December 2024 announcement from the Department of Home Affairs. That statement revokes Ministerial Direction 107 (MD107), and replaces it with a new directive: Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111).

Ministerial directions do not require parliamentary approval, and therefore both of these important changes are now in immediate effect.

In a move that will be widely celebrated by the international education sector in Australia, this marks the end of Ministerial Direction 107. First introduced in December 2023, MD107 was an immigration framework that classified Australian institutions into different risk levels and offered preferential treatment to “low-risk” institutions. The directive triggered a significant spike in visa rejection rates for students from some countries, and especially so for providers that were assessed to be higher risk.

MD107 was broadly seen by Australian educators as a fatally flawed mechanism that created a great deal of uncertainty in the marketplace, while driving up rejection rates and dampening student demand.

A cap by any other name?

The 19 December Home Affairs statement sets out the new model that will take the place of MD107, explaining that:

“Under MD111, priority processing (Priority 1 – High) will apply to offshore Student visa applications associated with a provider in the higher education and vocational education and training sectors who have not yet reached their prioritisation threshold as indicated by PRISMS, the Department of Education’s system that manages enrolment information. Once the prioritisation threshold has been reached for a provider, visa processing will continue at Priority 2 – Standard priority.”

What this appears to mean in practice is that visa applications will be processed for a given institution up to 80% of the indicative caps previously established under the ESOS amendment bill (where the cap was formally referred to as the National Planning Level [NPL]). Those indicative caps will now live on, and be largely administered via, the national information system PRISMS (Provider Registration and International Student Management System).

Beyond that 80% threshold, that same institution will fall to the end of the processing queue, with greater priority given to universities or colleges that have not reached the 80% benchmark.

What is not entirely clear from today’s statement is the extent to which those indicative caps will be treated by immigration officials as hard caps on enrolment at a given institution.

The actual text of MD111 sets out that, “The existence of prioritisation of the offshore visa caseload in line with the 2025 indicative allocations of new overseas student commencements is not to be taken as a limit or cap upon the total number of visas that may be granted to any provider. It is a number used solely for the purposes of determining the number of visa applications that are to be processed with Priority 1 – High processing, before standard processing procedures in accordance with Priority 2 – Standard becomes applicable.”

What that seems to indicate is that the overall cap established under the NPL (that new visa issuances will be limited to 270,000 nationally in 2025), along with the indicative caps assigned to each Australian institution under the NPL, have now become benchmarks for how the Australian government will “dispose” of visa applications.

There is considerable room for interpretation in the text of MD111, but the broad intent appears to be that visas will be processed up to the indicative cap limits (which in turn roll up to the national limit of the NPL) and then will “slow walk” processing beyond that point. How that will translate into actual processing times or rejection rates for applications, especially those handled under a “Priority 2 – Standard” approach may be the key aspect of the new ministerial direction, and it will now become one of the most important questions for the sector going forward into 2025.

For additional background, please see:

The UK’s English-language teaching sector (ELT) may have reached peak business volume in 2019, five years ago. This past summer, student weeks reached 75% of what they were in 2019, down from 81% in the first half of the year, according to the QUIC Q3 2024 report informed by data from 126 English UK member centres.

English UK’s chief executive, Jodie Gray, believes this level of business may reflect new seasonal norms following the pandemic: “We are considering 2023/2024 as the new normal with figures unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs or trends.” Ms Gray expects end-of-year 2024 numbers to be about the same as 2023.

Both Junior and Adult sub-sectors were down in summer 2024 versus summer 2023, by 10% and 9%, respectively. The Junior segment now makes up almost half of student weeks, which is the highest ratio – relative to Adult weeks – in the global ELT industry.

A smaller overall share of students means more competition

The context for English-language teaching has changed greatly since before the pandemic – and not only for the UK. International students have more access to English-language tutoring and online courses in their own countries, and it has become more difficult for many to travel abroad for education due to costs and visa restrictions in major destinations.

From a policy perspective, the UK is relatively more welcoming to international students in 2024 than competitor destinations Australia and Canada. Ms Gray plans to release a new economic impact assessment for an objective measure of how much the ELT sector contributes to the UK economy:

“We will launch this and our new position paper in Parliament at our 2025 Parliamentary Reception with government officials, media representatives and industry stakeholders. The government can make a huge difference to our success, as recent clampdowns in competitor markets have demonstrated.”

Ms Gray says a change in immigration settings could make a huge difference to the health of the sector, such as “a youth mobility scheme for the whole of the EU and other nations globally … [that] would be a game-changer.”

Top sending markets

Nearly a quarter of all student weeks are accounted for by the top 10 markets for UK ELT providers, and the top five sending countries are Saudi Arabia, China, Türkiye, and Brazil. Türkiye was up the most of all top sending countries over summer 2023, with 3,280 more weeks, while Italy contributed 7,610 fewer weeks.

For additional background, please see:

Almost as many international students are studying for a UK degree outside of the UK as in it. In 2022/23, 606,485 students across 228 countries took part in some form of transnational education (TNE) delivered by one of 173 UK universities. This may even be an understatement due to a difference in reporting methodology in 2022/23 versus previous years.

Meanwhile, there were 758,855 international students studying at higher education institutions in the UK in 2022/23. The onshore number remained higher that year, but maybe not for long. In part because of tighter immigration settings, visa issuances have been trending down this year and the in-country total is therefore likely to be lower the next time enrolments are tallied. By contrast, UK TNE is almost certainly destined to grow after a healthy 8.8% increase last year in the number of students enrolled in degrees delivered online, in-country, or through partnerships abroad.

Offshore/online delivery has several benefits for international students, including that it is less expensive than travelling for in-campus study in the UK, and that because many elite UK universities participate in TNE, students can access the prestige they want from a higher education degree while remaining in their own region.

Regional breakdown

The dominant region for UK TNE is Asia, which is responsible for half (51.5%) of all enrolments (312,295). Europe is next with 110,750, followed by the Middle East (82,930) Africa (64,790), and North America (29,455). There are also about 3,500 students in South America and 2,930 in Australasia.

The top five markets for UK TNE providers are China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore, and Egypt, accounting for a collective 40% of all UK higher education TNE activity. Sri Lanka displaced Malaysia in second place in 2022/23 with 18% y-o-y growth. Malaysia was the only country in the top five to report a decline.

Outside of the top five, the UAE is the fastest-growing TNE market, posting 20.4% year-over-year growth in 2022/23.

Move toward partnerships

There are several categories of TNE, including branch campuses, distance/online learning, joint/dual degrees, and faculty exchanges. But going into 2025, there is a trend emerging: governments open to UK TNE are more interested in internationalising their higher education systems through partnerships than in sending their own students to UK branch campuses.

As reported in University World News, at a British Council “Deep Dialogues” session at the November 2024 Manchester Conference – hosted by the UK’s Quality Assurance Agency (QAA) for Higher Education and the consultancy Education Insight – university and government attendees from 19 countries were asked about the purpose of TNE in their nation. Here are the top five answers, in order:

• “Internationalisation of domestic higher education system”
• “Enhancing the quality of the higher education system”
• “Widening access to higher education”
• “Increasing diversity in higher education”
• “Attracting international talent”

Professor Vangelis Tsiligkiris, founder of the TNE (international) Hub based at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, told University World News:

“The top four answers show why we need to talk about equitable partnerships and the need for host countries to gain something from TNE partnerships. That’s not always clear to the exporting institutions and it should be embedded, but isn’t always, into collaboration.”

Still, partnerships are on the rise. In 2022/23, UK TNE programmes delivered via overseas partner organisations enrolled 155,025 international students, compared with 138,090 in 2021/22. And in 2022/23, TNE provided by “other arrangement including collaborative provision” enrolled 252,405, compared with 225,675 the previous year.

For additional background, please see:

The following article is adapted from the 2025 edition of ICEF Insights magazine, which is freely available to download now.

If you think about it, one of the most pressing questions we all want answers to is, “What do students really care about when making study abroad decisions?”

The answers will differ based on factors including a student’s country of origin, degree of financial security, and intention to return home or seek permanent residence in a new country. But if we take a macro lens and explore significant global research conducted this year, we get insights into common themes to consider when recruiting and hosting students.

Practical priorities

Keystone Education Group’s State of Student Recruitment 2024 survey asked more than 27,000 students not just what they consider when comparing institutions, but also what matters to them in a programme.

There are some clear implications in the graphic above. For example:

At the institution level:

• Gather and communicate data on graduate employment outcomes. If this is hard to come by, feature successful alumni in marketing campaigns.
• Highlight rankings. If programme/field rankings are more impressive than institutional rankings, focus on those.
• Understand that accommodation is a top five issue for students researching institutions. Good student housing is a competitive differentiator.

At the programme level:

• Programmes become more competitive if they have an internship/work placement component. This priority was cited 46% more in 2024 than in 2023.
• Students need to know about funding and fees sooner rather than later. Don’t make them hunt for answers in these areas, and don’t let them (or you) be surprised late in the game when they realise they can’t afford your programme after all.

Speed matters

One of the statistics we saw cited the most this year is Keystone’s finding that 85% of students expect a response within 24 hours – a 35% increase over 2023. What’s more, 17% expect a response immediately, up 55% since 2023.

Student recruitment firms Edified and Uniquest collaborated on the 2024 edition of the Enquiry Experience Tracker mystery shopping survey, which found that too many student leads are being neglected. Six international student personas “shopped” 102 institutions in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, and North America. They submitted their questions through enquiry forms, live chat, social media, email, and peer-topeer platforms. The highlights on the left show where there is room for improvement.

Efficient staff structures, a well-implemented customer relationship system, and AI tools can help to respond to the need for speed in international student recruitment.

Communication is crucial

IDP Education conducted important research this year looking at how much international students are influenced by government policies in destination countries. The answer: a lot.

Institutions and associations must continue to advocate for responsible policies that address immigration needs without damaging the ability of countries to attract talented international students. At the same time, institutions and agencies must endeavour to communicate policies in a timely and accurate manner to students and to provide expert advice on applying to programmes that offer them the highest chance of being accepted.

Open to alternatives

During the pandemic, students got used to having back-ups to their preferred destination – and to thoroughly researching border policies, vaccination and test requirements, and rules about on-campus study. These research habits are proving useful again.

In response to quickly changing immigration environments, students are:

• Exploring alternative places to study, researching cost of living, fees, visa rules, etc.;
• Looking into programmes tied to labour market demand. Canada and New Zealand are two examples of countries that now tie better post-graduation work rights to programmes leading to specific occupations (and those occupations are not always STEM-based).

In addition, a 2024 QS survey of more than 11,000 international students interested in business schools found that demand is spiking for programmes that:

• Include a focus in other fields, reflecting the niche and increasingly specialised needs of global employers;
• Have a sustainability orientation. The survey found that an institution’s commitment to sustainable values (including the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs) is now a top three factor affecting students’ choice of institution.

The QS research suggests that there is an urgency to informing students about niche potentials of programmes. Think of ways to market programmes in a creative light that goes well beyond mere description.

Eager for ROI

Students choose to study abroad for many reasons, but research shows time and again that employability is the top driver. For the past five years, for example, “future career impact” has topped the list of student motivations (96%) on Etio’s International Student Barometer (ISB). This year, the ISB included 122,975 international students studying at 155 institutions in 24 countries, and as always, its data is definitely worth paying attention to.

Nannette Ripmeester, Etio’s director of client services for Europe and North America, wrote in ICEF Monitor earlier this year:

“What can institutions and providers do to support this quest for employability? Take employability skills seriously. Globalise your curricula, build in global orientation and skills training because that career workshop at the end of a study programme will not be enough to create employable graduates. Maybe it all starts with the understanding that, for recruitment of new students, you need to start at the end of the student journey by taking steps to ensure better graduate outcomes for your students.”

Ms Ripmeester also believes that institutions – especially through their career services department – must help students to maximise the impact of their study abroad experience:

“When we asked employers [in two Erasmus Impact studies] if they recruit students simply because they have studied abroad, … we found there is no guarantee that study abroad in itself makes someone employable – there is more needed to make that happen. For starters, a graduate should be able to explain what they have gained while being abroad and how these skills can support them in their new role. When graduates can unpack what they have gained abroad, employers become keener in hiring that person. When that graduate can ‘repackage’ their skills in the language of a hiring manager (word of warning: there is no one-size-fits-all approach – this may differ per sector and per country), an employer is more likely to be interested in that graduate. After all, study abroad provides, by its very nature, situations where people develop the skills sought after by the future world of work.”

Key takeaways

There is a theme running through these research findings: think like a student. Think about their priorities, how they make decisions, their demand for immediate answers, and their increasing willingness to consider alternative destinations and programmes. Consider their need to show employers why investing in study abroad was such a good decision. Successful alumni are perhaps the best asset you have. Their success can drive the sustainability of your programmes, your marketing, and your reputation in key target markets.

For additional background, please see:

Listen in as ICEF’s Craig Riggs and Martijn van de Veen recap some recent industry developments with a focus on three key international education trends for 2025.

This month’s episode features a conversation – with Sue Attewell, Head of AI at Jisc, and Puneet Kohli, Chief Executive Officer at Careerflow.ai – exploring how new technologies and digital innovations are impacting career services for international students and their employability.

We conclude with a closer look at Japan as the latest stop for our “Keys to the Market” segment.

You can listen right now in the player below, and we encourage you to subscribe via your favourite podcast app in order to receive future episodes automatically.

For additional background, please see:

A new data analysis reveals worrisome trends for US colleges with respect to domestic first-year enrolments. The number of 18-year-olds entering US higher education is falling – and just as the so-called “enrolment cliff” is projected to begin in 2026. The enrolment cliff refers to an expected drop in the population of high-school graduates, which translates to a smaller pool of domestic students able to enter postsecondary programmes.

That higher education enrolments are already dropping – following a recovery in 2022 and 2023 after the pandemic – shows that the demographic effects of the enrolment cliff will be exacerbated by other factors (e.g., economic, attitudinal, and financial). This suggests that US colleges could become more reliant on international students’ tuition, as well as alternative delivery models and revenue sources.

An average 5% drop

The National College Attainment Network (NCAN), which advocates for equity in higher education, looked at data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center on roughly 1.4. million 18-year-olds enrolled in close to 80% of US postsecondary institutions. The analysis found that enrolments declined by 5% across all sectors in fall 2024 compared with fall 2023.

That was the average decline: it was steeper at four-year colleges. As shown in the chart below, four-year colleges experienced declines of over 6% between 2023 and 2024. Public two-year colleges – which are less expensive and which require less time commitment – were not hit as hard.

What’s more, declines happened in 46 US states: only Alabama, Delaware, Louisiana and Washington DC saw moderate increases (about 3%) in first-year enrolments, while there was no change in Oklahoma.

NCAN CEO Kim Cook said:

“This semester’s enrollment numbers for high school graduates should be frightening for practitioners, policymakers, and the public alike. Our progress toward increasing college enrollment coming out of the pandemic has been stymied, and we will have to work much harder to help many of these students to rediscover college pathways in the future.”

Race and income tell a story

The extent of enrolment declines differed according to how competitive a college is to gain admission to. Overall, the most selective institutions (e.g., Ivy League or elite liberal arts colleges) as well as the least selective (at the other extreme) experienced relatively mild falloffs. It is possible that determination to earn a degree is highest among (1) high-school students with the grades/income to gain admission to an elite university and (2) students with lower academic standing and/or greater concerns around affordability who will study at a less prestigious institution as long as they earn a degree.

The middle categories of institution – “very competitive” and “competitive” – saw the greatest overall drops in first-year enrolments of 18-year-olds.

In terms of race:

• “Highly selective” institutions saw the largest declines among Black, multiracial, and Asian students (-16.9%, -14.2%, and -10.3%, respectively).
• “Very competitive” institutions saw the steepest falloffs from white and Asian students (-12% and -11.6, respectively).
• “Competitive” institutions saw the biggest drops from multiracial, white and Black students (-12.1%, -11.3%, and -8.2%, respectively)
• And “less selective” institutions (i.e., the easiest category to gain admission to) experienced the greatest losses from multiracial students (-11.3%).

Income was another major predictor of enrolment trends. NCAN writes:

“Declines were also pronounced at colleges serving the most students from low-income backgrounds (i.e., Pell Grant recipients). Without knowing if these students instead matriculated to other institutions, it may be that these students did not enroll at all and may never do so in the future.”

A systemic blunder played a major role in the growing tendency of lower-income students to not progress from high school to postsecondary studies. There was a “disastrous rollout” of the federal application and federal student aid (FAFSA) online platform in the spring of 2024. FAFSA opened late and then was plagued by technical issues, with the result that many students received their letter confirming their financial award after decision deadlines. Without an award, many of those students would not have been able to afford postsecondary education.
 
In an email to University World News, Bill DeBaun, NCAN’s senior director of data and strategic initiatives, wrote:

“If an award letter came after decision deadlines, for example, students may have made the difficult decision not to matriculate this semester. If students from low-income backgrounds, who are often Pell Grant recipients, were disproportionately affected, the institutions to which they tend to matriculate were too.”

Access to prestigious institutions is lower following Supreme Court decision

Another factor in the overall decline was the June 2023 ruling of the US Supreme Court that the consideration of race as a factor in college admissions decisions was unconstitutional. Almost certainly related to that ruling is the fact that enrolments of first-year Black 18-year-olds declined dramatically in fall 2024 at the most selective four-year institutions.

Many students will be lost forever to the postsecondary system

NCAN writes:

“Too many students missed a college transition this fall. Past research has shown that students who delay entry to college have a decreased likelihood of future degree attainment. More recently, NSCRC research showed that among high school graduates from the class of 2020, just 2% of students followed a ‘gap year’ enrollment pattern where they enrolled for the first time more than a year after high school graduation.

Given that there have been disruptions to both FAFSA completion and enrollment for three of the last five graduating high school classes, getting the class of 2025 back on track for enrollment next fall is critical. The stakes for students and their families and communities, as well as states and the United States overall, are very high. It is important that the enrollment declines resulting from these disruptions not become our new national normal.”

For additional background, please see: