Draymond Green has declared the “writing’s on the wall” in regard to his Warriors’ future.
Green’s reading is that he is not wanted in Golden State. He’ll decline his player option at the end of the season and play elsewhere next campaign and beyond.
But the story on the hardwood floor tells a different story.
It says that the Warriors are as dependent on Green as ever.
So if the Dubs’ front office wants to make a move before the Feb. 9 trade deadline, it should extend Green’s contract.
One game isn’t a trend, but Green was desperately missed Thursday night, when the Warriors were blown out by a Denver Nuggets team that sits atop the Western Conference standings.
Playing the second end of a back-to-back at altitude seems like a cruel joke from the NBA schedule-making algorithm — fatigue was no doubt a factor — but the absence of Green was glaring on both sides of the floor as Denver started to run away with the game in the latter moments of the third quarter.
Defense was optional from the jump of the game for the Dubs. With Green sidelined before tip-off with right calf tightness, Golden State allowed 70 first-half points and was outscored by 13 in the second quarter.
That third-quarter collapse came at the hands of a 16-0 Denver run where every Warriors’ offensive possession seemed to be a turnover and every defensive possession a good (made) look for the Nuggets.
The inclusion of Green might not have won the game for the Warriors, but forgive me for thinking the team’s defensive ace and point guard could have been helpful under such circumstances.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr said after the loss he believes Green’s calf tightness is “something minor.” Last year, Green’s calf injury turned into a serious back injury that kept him sidelined for 30 games between January and March.
So Kerr better be right. The Warriors are only a passable defensive team with Green. Without him, they are abysmal.
The Dubs’ offense doesn’t fare much better, either.
There’s an 11 points per 100 possessions swing between Green being on and off the floor this season.
The Warriors are five points per 100 possessions worse on offense, and six points worse on defense Green is off the floor (116 on, 111 off on offense; 111 on, 118 off on defense).
The defensive absence is even more pronounced with the Warriors’ new starting backcourt of Steph Curry and Jordan Poole.
The wisdom of Monta Ellis persists to this day: “That’s … not going to win that way.”
Yes, it might be a brilliant offensive backcourt, but like with Curry and Ellis, Curry and Poole are too small — or, in the case of Poole (and Ellis), too defensively poor — to expect to get stops. There’s a reason the Dubs have been playing crunch-time minutes with defensively sound Donte DiVincenzo at the 2.
To play Poole and Curry without Green behind them, taking on the easy passers-by on the perimeter? That’s a defensive disaster waiting to happen.
It’s not Kevon Looney’s game to clean up messes like that.
Jonathan Kuminga might become a true defensive ace one day, but right now, he’s trying to figure out point-of-attack defense. He’s certainly not ready to be a Green-like sweeper anytime soon.
And James Wiseman might look like someone who can fill that role, but he cannot. I doubt he ever will. The Warriors can try it if they want — it’d make a bad situation worse.
This Warriors’ dynasty — of whatever we’re calling four titles in seven years — was built on revolution on both sides of the court.
Curry didn’t invent the 3-point shot, but his incredible range and efficiency from beyond the arc mean he is roundly credited with ushering in the era of the long ball. When people think of the Warriors, they think of Curry chucking from distance. Offense sells.
But it was Green’s defensive versatility that was just as important to Golden State’s success. The Warriors’ roster was built with wings, but it was Green’s ability to play center at an elite level, despite being 6-foot-5, and his second-to-none instincts that created a switch-everything defensive juggernaut the rest of the NBA tried to replicate.
Offensive success buoyed the Warriors’ defense, yes, but as Kerr will gladly tell you, for the Warriors, it starts with defense. Excellence there flows onto the offensive side of the floor.
To be more specific: It’s hard to play the Warriors’ high-paced brand of offensive basketball when you’re inbounding the ball from under the basket at the start of every possession.
Oh, and on that offensive side, Green is the one pushing the pace while ensuring his team runs the correct play. To make Curry do that is to take away his gravity. To make Poole do that is to ensure a steady diet of isolation plays for No. 3.
The Warriors must know what countless other teams in the NBA have deduced since 2015: there’s only one Draymond Green.
He’s not perfect — that’s no secret – but he’s always been worthy of the headaches, even this season.
Green punched a teammate, played disengaged basketball for weeks, and is finally turning it on as of late. It hasn’t been a banner year in a contract year. So the fact that the Warriors — who risk losing Green for nothing in free agency — aren’t considering trading him ahead of next week’s deadline speaks volumes. They should act on that truth.
They know that even if this Green doesn’t have the same bounce, push, or daily drive as the one that spearheaded the greatest five-year run in recent NBA history, he’s still the engine that makes the gears of this winning machine operate.
Especially on this team, where several key gears are missing.
So just as the Warriors would never dare replace Curry, they should never imagine a world without Green.
I imagine that point will be hammered home if Green misses any more time with this calf injury.
Luckily, they can act on those feelings.
Yes, some writing might be on the wall, but that can be painted over.
And once that work is done, the next writing we should see is Green’s signature on a new contract.
