The below content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free and never miss this daily briefing.
Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has fallen to just one point, according to a new survey published today by More in Common. The poll, conducted between 5-7 October, puts Labour on 29 per cent of the vote and the Tories narrowly behind on 28 per cent.
The findings suggest that a tumultuous few weeks for Labour, culminating in the resignation of Sue Gray on Sunday, is taking a toll. They also underline the significance of the other newsworthy happening today: the next round of MP voting in the Conservative leadership contest.
Conservative MPs will whittle down the party’s field of leadership candidates by one more this afternoon, following weeks of wrangling and ardent dispute.
The last round of voting came almost a month ago, on 10 September, and resulted in the exit of Mel Stride. Where Stride’s 16 MPs backers redistribute themselves this afternoon is the contest’s main subject of speculation.
The big question is whether they join Stride in backing James Cleverly, after the shadow home secretary secured his vanquished rival’s much sought-after endorsement on Monday. (Of course, that begs another question: what, if anything, did Stride secure for himself as part of this deal — the shadow chancellor’s post, perhaps?)
For this reason and others, Cleverly is the Conservative leadership candidate with momentum. Some thoughts on what to expect from the contest’s penultimate parliamentary vote, to be held at 3.30pm, below.
James Cleverly has ‘Mel-mentum‘
The principal takeaway from the first two rounds of Conservative leadership voting is that the Tory selectorate, of 121 MPs, really isn’t convinced by any of the candidates.
Sure, former immigration minister Robert Jenrick is the nominal frontrunner, having won the support of 28 and 33 MPs to secure two consecutive first-place finishes. In the last round, however, he was only 5 votes ahead of Kemi Badenoch (28), his primary challenger on the right. The two moderate tributes, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly, finished level with 21 votes apiece.
It meant that MPs and members went to Conservative Party conference last week ready and willing to be wooed. And they might just have been.
Cleverly, either in third or fourth position heading into the annual fête, put in by far the best conference performance — rounding it off with a rousing speech to Tory activists. He warned those listening that continuing to shun “normalcy” will not endear the Conservative Party to the country at large. “Let’s be enthusiastic; relatable; positive; optimistic. Let’s sell the benefits of a Conservative government with a smile”, he declared. The Tory grassroots applauded in knowing agreement.
Cleverly’s address was by far the best received in the conference hall, and the race’s trajectory has expectedly, tangibly, altered.
A recent ConservativeHome survey of the Tory grassroots shows the shadow home secretary is fast-rising in the activist base’s estimations. Cleverly (25 per cent) remains behind Badenoch (32 per cent) — but he has stormed ahead of Jenrick to settle into second place in members’ first preferences.
The result underlines that Cleverly, post-conference, has won the race’s sub-contest as the most eligible Tory moderate — a development all but confirmed by the endorsement of Mel Stride. Accordingly, he is now vying with Badenoch and Jenrick for a place in the final two.
At this juncture, Cleverly’s clearest path to victory runs, first, through the raiding of Tugendhat’s support after the shadow security minister’s likely deposition today; and, second, with the continued rise of Robert Jenrick.
The shadow home secretary’s camp will recognise that a Cleverly vs. Jenrickfinal two is far more likely to end in a Cleverly victory than a Cleverly vs. Badenoch match-up. The latter contest would pit the candidate with the clearest momentum against the longtime darling of the party grassroots. Or, to put it another more caustic way: the candidate most likely to win the next election against the ideologically indulgent option.
Cleverly has his weaknesses as a candidate, that said; and the former home secretary’s political frailties have been expectedly emphasised by his leadership rivals in recent days.
Cleverly is widely regarded as an effective, affable communicator. But he has a proven propensity for gaffes. Today, for instance, he has been forced to admit making a “mistake” after he was accused of taking his wife to free sporting events — Wimbledon and the Women’s World Cup final — without properly declaring it.
He also came out fighting over the government’s handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, condemning Keir Starmer as “weak, weak, weak”. Only then did it emerge that Cleverly had actually kicked off negotiations over the deal when he was foreign secretary.
The shadow home secretary was conspicuously absent when David Lammy delivered a statement to the commons yesterday on the deal, as was implicitly highlighted by two barrelling interventions from Tugendhat and Jenrick.
Nonetheless, all signs point to a strong performance by Cleverly this afternoon. It is Tugendhat, after all, who looks likeliest to exit the race at this stage
Subscribe to Politics@Lunch
Lunchtime briefing
Gaza ‘a living hell’: Keir Starmer says Middle East ‘cannot endure’ another year of conflict
Lunchtime soundbite
‘We have seen previously what happens if you rush important decisions around fiscal statements’
— The prime minister’s official spokesperson denies Keir Starmer made a mistake by opting to wait until 30 October to deliver the government’s first Budget.
Now try this…
‘Labour’s woes won’t guarantee Conservative success’
Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen writes for ConservativeHome.
‘Starmer’s missions need the government machine to run better‘
The FT’s Stephen Bush writes that previous governments have attempted the Whitehall silo-busting needed by Labour to achieve its five big aims. (Paywall)
‘Keir Starmer’s reset shows his premiership is already in crisis’
Less than 100 days after taking office, the Labour prime minister has already been forced to shake up his team. Via Politico
On this day in 2021:
Rashford attacks government on ending of Universal Credit uplift
