Rachel Reeves was charged with the broadcast media round this morning, as she fielded questions and criticisms in the wake of her first spring statement as chancellor.
The first wave of commentary has honed in on the government’s welfare reforms, the bulk of which were unveiled earlier this month by work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall — to some consternation in the Parliamentary Labour Party. But Reeves was forced to go further yesterday after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the fiscal watchdog, rejected officials’ estimate as to the savings the cuts would yield.
The OBR found the package would only save £3.4 billion, rather than the £5 billion the government hoped. After the further cuts, the watchdog said savings will now be £4.8 billion — which it described as “the largest package of welfare savings since the July 2015 budget”.
This move, together with the relevant impact assessment, has exacerbated internal criticism of the spring statement, which was already burgeoning in Labour circles ahead of Reeves’ remarks yesterday.
Responding to the chancellor’s statement, Debbie Abrahams, the Labour chair of the work and pensions select committee, told the commons: “All the evidence points to the fact that the cuts to health and disability benefits will lead to increased poverty, including severe poverty, and worsened health conditions.
“How will making people sicker and poorer help to drive our economy up and get people into jobs?”
Neil Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, said: “We are talking about people’s lives here — my constituents are frightened.
“This policy will fuel the social determinants of poverty that ultimately create further pressure on the services the chancellor is trying to cut. And we know cuts won’t bring growth, they won’t create jobs — they will only create poverty.”
Rachael Maskell, the Labour MP for York Central, said: “The devastating impact of people losing essential income will fall on disabled people. I will not accept or vote for measures that will put people at risk or push deeper into poverty.”
Away from the commons, Clive Lewis, the Labour MP for Norwich South, expressed a broader discontent with the government’s programme in an interview with Sky News. “I think some of us already knew there were some problems in terms of the lack of a plan and an ideology behind it, the lack of a strategy”, he said.
“But they won a massive majority, a massive mandate, and you have to give people a chance. I think we’re at the point now where people can see that this isn’t what we expected — what a lot of the public expected, what MPs expected — in that sense it is a disappointment.”
Richard Burgon, Labour MP for Leeds East, told Times Radio that the government could face the “mother of all rebellions” if it does not rethink cuts to disability benefits.
Nadia Whittome, Labour MP for Nottingham East, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that people will look upon the spring statement as a “continuation of austerity for them.”
Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Labour MP for Clapham and Brixton Hill, posted to X: “The government’s own analysis shows that 50,000 children would be forced into poverty by planned cuts to disability benefits. I will be voting against this.
“No Labour MP should be voting to push children into poverty.”
Brian Leishman, the outspoken Labour MP for Alloa and Grangemouth, said: “The spring statement had awful cuts that will impact disabled people.
“The ‘tough political choice’ of cuts would be avoided if the government decided to tax multi millionaires instead… I’ll vote against cuts to disability benefit.”
In a statement on social media, Connor Naismith, the Labour MP for Crewe and Nantwich, said the government’s welfare measures “risk plunging vulnerable people into poverty.”
He said: “I cannot ignore the findings of the independent impact assessment, published today, that these changes will push an extra 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) into relative poverty after housing costs.”
Steve Witherden, the Labour MP for Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, labelled the benefit cuts “a political choice”, adding: “There are alternatives to ever deeper austerity. Properly taxing the wealthiest after decades of widening inequality would be a start.”
This morning in the House of Commons, DWP minister Stephen Timms was dragged to the despatch box to answer an urgent question on the impact of changes to the Personal Independence Payment on recipients of Carers Allowance.
Questioning the minister, David Pinto-Duschinsky, the Labour MP for Hendon, expressed his support for the reforms. The founder of the Get Britain Working Group of Labour MPs suggested the cuts would make the welfare system “more sustainable”.
But the majority of those Labour parliamentarians who spoke this morning asked Timms for “assurances”, which the minister tried his utmost to provide.
As the above quotes suggest, there is no question that a backlash is building in Labour circles over the government’s welfare cuts. But the question remains over whether such criticism will swell beyond the usual ranks of Keir Starmer’s awkward squad.
Ahead of the spring statement, government whips would have been in no doubt as to the opposition of MPs like Burgon, Maskell, Whittome and Leishman. And there is still a strong backbone of support in the parliamentary party, as Pinto-Duschinsky’s contribution implies.
Rachel Reeves, defending the government’s position this morning, insisted she was “absolutely certain” that the welfare changes announced at the spring statement will not push more people into poverty — appearing to contradict her own government’s impact assessment.
The extent of a potential rebellion will only become clear over the coming days and weeks, as these arguments are hashed out between ministers and would-be-rebels.
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PMQs: Ed Davey calls for ‘urgent review’ into intelligence sharing with the United States
Lunchtime soundbite
‘There is a good chance that economic and fiscal forecasts will deteriorate significantly between now and an autumn budget.
‘If so, she will need to come back for more; which will likely mean raising taxes even further’
— “Good chance” Rachel Reeves will have to raise taxes in the autumn budget, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson says.
Now try this…
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James Heale writes for The Spectator. (Paywall)
‘Welfare cuts will push 250,000 people into poverty, says government impact assessment’
Via PoliticsHome.
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