CHICO — Strap down that furniture if your Thanksgiving feast is outside; it’s about to get windy.
Cities in the north valley may see wind gusts upward of 20 mph Thursday and Friday, according to Craig Shoemaker, meteorologist with National Weather Service Sacramento.
Paradise is forecast to see 30 to 35 mph wind gusts; going higher in elevation 35 to 40 mph winds in Stirling City and above 50 mph winds at Jarbo Gap.
Chico and Oroville, in contrast, are forecast around 20 to 25 mph for maximum wind speeds, according to Shoemaker.
“The Chico area itself is in a bit of a sheltered area for this type of wind,” Shoemaker said. “The strongest winds are usually west of Chico and up into the foothills.”
Toward the west and south of the area, wind gusts are forecast above 30 mph in Durham, Hamilton City, Orland, Biggs and Gridley, Shoemaker said. Red Bluff is forecast to see 35 to 40 mph winds.
Temperature lows in the general area are forecast in the low 40s during the windy period through Friday; dropping to the upper 30s by Saturday; to 37 by Sunday and to 35 by Monday, Shoemaker said.
Winter outlook
According to a winter outlook published Tuesday by National Weather Service Sacramento, conditions for El Niño are currently observed and the forecast for a strong El Niño season is 55% probability.
Shoemaker said climate models are currently seeing about a two-degree Celsius increase in temperature in Pacific waters around the equator — a factor in predicting strong El Niño conditions.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, this El Niño winter has a 35% probability of seeing conditions that match historically strong rain events in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 — a three-degree increase in temperature in Pacific waters, Shoemaker said.
“There’s a 35% chance that we can get a temperature anomaly above three Celsius or so in the Pacific near the equator. Those would be similar to the 2015-16 and 1997-98,” Shoemaker said.
“We had massive flooding all over the valley,” in 1997-1998, Shoemaker said. “Reservoirs were completely full .. a lot of levees were breaking.”
Shoemaker said El Niño conditions typically affect southern California more than the north valley, but this year climate models currently forecast a slightly more wet year than normal in December, January and February — the peak area from the San Joaquin Valley up to Redding.
However, Shoemaker said more time is needed to gain confidence in forecasting a strong El Niño winter.
“So far we’ve been below normal for the season and there’s no sign we’re transitioning into any wet period yet,” Shoemaker said. “That’s the thing about our winters here in California is our wet season is highly dependent on atmospheric river storms.”