PHOENIX — The Warriors head into Tuesday’s game against the Phoenix Suns with very few bright spots to soak up and plenty of issues to sort through.
It’s only December, but in the standings they are on the outside looking into the playoff picture. The season is young enough that Golden State has time to situate themselves nicely in the standings with a good string of wins. But three numbers from their 10-12 start show where they’ve fallen behind and how they haven’t fallen to NBA pits yet.
1. -22
This Warriors team is built on the presumption that the four-time champion core can fend off age and still beat the lot. That’s meant coach Steve Kerr rolling with the same starting five that carried them to the playoffs last year: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney. This five-man group had a +22.1 net rating that was among the league’s best, according to Cleaning the Glass, and outscored opponents by a total of 145 points in the 331 minutes played together.
Hints that this starting five wasn’t sustainable presented in the playoffs, when the Sacramento Kings disregarded the front court players as scorers and suffocated Curry and Thompson. It forced Kerr to stagger Green and Looney. This season, the rest of the league is following suit and this starting five is a cumulative minus-22 heading into Tuesday’s game against the Phoenix Suns in the 10 games they’ve played together.
Kerr has been hesitant to break the big five up and switch-up the starting lineup, at times saying he’d prefer to give them the space to find their groove in hopes of regaining their 2022-23 form again. Amid a troubling 10-12 start, Kerr has also backed off his commitment to stick with the familiar and loosely proposed changes to the starters as well as more flexibility in his rotations. He prefers to use nine players, for example, but has opened up a 10-man rotation based on situation and merit.
“We have to consider everything,” Kerr said on Monday. “At 10-12, losing a lot of close games, we have to consider everything. That’s always an opportunity to make changes as a team if you feel like that’s what you have to do. We’re also showing a lot of good things, we’re getting leads against good teams every night. So we know we can play at a high level, but whatever we have to do as a coaching staff to sustain those efforts we have to do.”
From his starting five, Kerr has options. He could loosen the floor and stagger Green and Looney and opt for Dario Saric or even Jonathan Kuminga next to Green. Kuminga could also be swapped for Wiggins, whose lows have far outweighed his highs this year. Thompson, who hasn’t come off the bench in a game since his rookie season, could be swapped for Moses Moody in order to generate something of a rim attack at that position along with Moody’s shooting and defense.
The Warriors have the depth to explore options, but change could disrupt the stability that’s kept the dynasty together a decade.
2. 102
Through all the 20-plus point meltdowns, mediocrity and malaise, Steph Curry is still brilliant. As of Tuesday, the 35-year-old had 102 3-pointers this season. That’s 19 more than the runner up, Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic.
The NBA has been trying to catch up with Curry’s revolutionary 3-point spectacular since it took the league by storm nearly a decade ago. But Curry is still the king of 3-point efficiency, slinging them at a high clip with even higher difficulty at a mind-bending rate. He’s shooting 43.2% from 3, just a smidge above his career average, on 11.8 attempted 3s per game on average, which leads the league and is nearly two more than Doncic takes per game (10.2).
Curry is still spectacular, not only as a captivating superstar but as a player who still has what it takes to lead a team to the Finals again. That goes beyond 3-point shooting, of course. He’s averaging 29.4 points per game shooting 47% from the field.
3. 15.8
If Curry averaging 29.4 points per game is a bright spot, Klay Thompson’s 15.8 points per game casts a shadow on the Warriors’ season thus far. Thompson is Golden State’s next best scorer; no other Warrior is averaging more than 20 points per game other than Curry. Simple as a scoring stat is, that gray area between Curry and the rest offensively is largely what’s held the Warriors back.
The problem isn’t just Thompson; the other high-paid guys aren’t collecting buckets, either. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 12.6 points per game shooting a concerning. 27.7% from 3. Chris Paul, a prolific jump shooter, is averaging 8.6 points per game. Dario Saric is picking up some of the slack off the bench scoring 10.7 ppg while shooting 38.3% from 3 on 4.3 attempts per game. Jonathan Kuminga is picking up some of the slack in his limited minutes, now averaging 11.7 ppg.
With Jordan Poole traded to Washington, the Warriors opted out of his upside as a scoring threat and threw themselves into the potential scenario that’s unfolding. Curry is carrying the load and no one has stepped up to fill the gaps. The Warriors have a few months until the trade deadline to either fill that void or look to trade for a player who can be that second scorer. A legitimate playoff run looks bleak without another 20 ppg scorer.