The cordon sanitaire – on life support since Sunday – came down for the very first time. It was an epochal moment.
Although the resolution itself is a non-binding measure, the centre-right CDU and CSU have achieved a parliamentary outcome with AfD votes, and that has never happened before. As Green Party Chancellor candidate Robert Habeck said in his speech today, “If you vote with the AfD on this very important issue, on what issue won’t you vote with the AfD?” That is the crux of the matter. This vote suggests that the Influx Limitation Act, up for a vote on Friday, will also pass the Bundestag (if not the Bundesrat), once again with a majority made by the AfD. If we are lucky the cordon sanitaire will come down not once, but twice in the same week.
After today’s vote, the left side of parliament broke out in jeering and booing; SPD representatives became particularly hysterical after their leader, Rolf Mützenich, lamented that the Union had “abandoned the political middle.” That is good. The left have become just a little less powerful, and the events set in motion this afternoon threaten to marginalise them ever further in the years to come.
There will of course be no coalition between the CDU and the populist opposition after this election. The present CDU leadership, including their Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, are committed enemies of the AfD, however happy they may be to cast themselves as anti-migration hardliners. It is even possible that the CDU throw their weight behind schemes to ban the AfD after the elections in an effort to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
Other things are possible too, however: After today, it will become very hard indeed for CDU politicians to explain to their voters why they cannot use AfD votes for anything at all. The possibility will haunt any future coalition with the left.
The Greens and the SPD will continue to freak out, and if they freak out enough, one or both of them might end up outright refusing to govern with the Union parties. The SPD have already demanded that Merz reverse his course on migration if he views them as a potential partner. If that happens, the cordon sanitaire might not just come down – it might be buried for good.
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Source: TLB
