PHILADELPHIA — Seven months ago, when the NFL announced the 49ers’ NFC Championship Game rematch here would be a twilight tilt this Sunday, coach Kyle Shanahan appreciated that scheduling.
“I am glad we’re not playing Philly Week 1,” Shanahan said on May 10. “I want to play them at a better time. I want to make sure our whole team is right, there.”
Brock Purdy’s surgically repaired elbow is indeed right, and the 49ers (8-3) are downright ready for their return to Lincoln Financial Field. They’ve downplayed this as “just another game,” but they’re also acknowledging how a win could eventually wrestle the NFC playoffs’ No. 1-seed from the Eagles (10-1).
This game’s stakes don’t provide the immediate payoff as last January’s meeting for the NFC’s Super Bowl berth. You know the 49ers’ sad story: Purdy gets hurt six snaps into the game, backup Josh Johnson sustains a concussion right after halftime, and the Eagles roll to a 31-7 win — before their own heartbreak in the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs.
“Neither team finished the job so it’s not like they’re looking back and reminiscing on an NFC championship win, either,” Nick Bosa said. “I’m sure, we’re both sad at the end of the year. We both have aspirations to win Super Bowls, so it’s a new year and it’s a big step for both of us to get to that aspiration.”
Purdy’s right arm recovered so well he’s leading the NFL in passer rating, and the 49ers are riding a three-game win streak, with their defense surging behind a star-studded frontline and a less-cringy secondary.
The Eagles are off to a 10-1 start for the second straight year, and Sunday night’s overtime win over the Buffalo Bills marked their fourth straight comeback from a halftime deficit.
Here are the five keys to a 49ers’ victory:
1. PROTECT PURDY
As is the case every game, the 49ers must keep Purdy safe and prevent a repeat of last season’s elbow trauma. That means more than just blocking Haason Reddick better, whether that task falls on starting tackles Colton McKivitz and Trent Williams, or on tight ends George Kittle or Charlie Woerner. Or even on Shanahan’s play calls.
When Reddick raced around tight end Tyler Kroft and bashed Purdy’s elbow six snaps into last game, Purdy took a split-second longer for Brandon Aiyuk to dart open. Lesson learned. Purdy’s pocket presence is better than ever. Jersey No. 13 is ready for Week 13.
There’s no need to buy so much time this game. Purdy should get the ball out quickly to Christian McCaffrey to exploit mismatches against the Eagles’ thin linebacker corps. That goes for passes, handoffs or laterals. McCaffrey, the NFL’s leading rusher, has scored in three straight games (all wins) after his 17-game touchdown streak got snapped.
Purdy entrusts all the 49ers’ weapons and knows where to unload it quickly, whether it’s also to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle, the latter of whom has caught his past 19 targets in the 49ers’ two most recent games against Philadelphia, including 15 for 183 yards in a 2020 win.
Ultimately, yes, the 49ers’ offensive line must counter a still-superior Eagles defensive front. But while Reddick and Josh Sweat are threats on the edge, the 49ers are wary of defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter; Fletcher Cox has a groin issue.
Guard Jon Feliciano, who faced the Eagles three times last year while with the Giants, sees a different unit. Wheras last season, the Eagles had D-line depth, and this year they have an ascending interior punch with Davis and Carter. As for Reddick, Felicano said: “His athleticism and frame might lull you to sleep. You might not think he has power as well. That’s kind of what makes him a great player.”
2. WALL OFF HURTS
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts rightfully deserves praise for how money he’s been converting short-yardage runs via the “Brotherly Shove.” He has 11 rushing touchdowns, eight on 1-yard shoves.
But the 49ers’ key to avoid that situation is to keep him in that pocket on earlier downs and limit short-yardage opportunities. If Hurts uses his mobility to flee from arguably the NFL’s hottest pass rush, that also will backfire, “because those plays that he can get out are super deflating for defenses,” Bosa said.
To help Bosa and others avoid last matchup’s struggles, the 49ers not only poached defensive tackle Javon Hargrave from the Eagles in free agency, they brought in a complementary collection of defensive ends in Clelin Ferrell, Chase Young and Randy Gregory.
Defensive tackle Arik Armstead’s foot injury is a concern, as is their safety depth behind starters Tashaun Gipson Sr. and Ji’Ayir Brown.
3. FORCE TURNOVERS
Linebacker Fred Warner didn’t seem startled when informed that Hurts has fumbled in five consecutive games, losing three of those footballs.
“Some of those, it’s just bad luck, like last game, when they tried to make a draw and the handoff got fumbled around,” Warner said. “I’m sure they want to limit those turnovers, and it’s our job to force them.”
The 49ers have recovered opponents’ fumbles in four straight games, totaling four interceptions and nine total takeaways during that stretch.
Did you know the 49ers lead the NFL with 15 interceptions? Five years ago, they only totaled two interceptions, all of the 2018 season.
Now they tout a a plus-11 turnover differential that’s tied for first with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hurts already has thrown a single-season career-high 10 interceptions for the Eagles, who have 16 turnovers against 14 takeaways.
4. DON’T BE OVERCONFIDENT
The 49ers should not swagger back into Philly knowing they have a healthy surplus of quarterbacks – Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen are behind Purdy. Nor should they buy too much into their role as favorites. Yes, for the first time in at least 20 years, the Eagles are the first 10-1 underdog playing at home.
“Going into last year, nobody thought we’d be any good. It’s OK to be the underdog,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “Before I ever stepped foot in this city all I knew was ‘Rocky vs. Apollo Creed.’ This city plays the underdog well.”
The 49ers have not been underdogs all season, and not since their last visit to Philadelphia, when the Eagles were favored by 2 ½ points in the NFC Championship Game. High expectations on the road are not new. The 49ers were favored by at least a touchdown in what dissolved into back-to-back defeats at Cleveland and Minnesota in October, but the 49ers’ 31-13 win last game in Seattle saw them make good on their biggest spread (7 points) in 23 visits to Lumen Field.
Shanahan on this week’s odds being in the 49ers’ favor: “I mean, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but I don’t really know how that stuff works. So, I don’t really know why. It is random.”
5. CLOSING TIME
The biggest hole in the 49ers’ résumé is whether they can pull off a fourth-quarter comeback win. The Eagle’s best asset might be their ability to rally in the clutch, as seen last Sunday night, when they won in overtime despite allowing 505 yards in a 37-34 walk-off win at home over the Bills.
Say the 49ers are leading in the fourth quarter and want to run the ball to kill time. The Eagles are allowing the NFL’s third-fewest rushing yards per game (85.3; the 49ers rank second at 82.0).
“Philly’s as big of a challenge stopping the run as anyone in the league, not just this year but over the last few years,” Shanahan said. “So, we’re ready for the challenge, excited for the challenge and it is definitely a challenge.”
Say the 49ers need to rally. They are 0-37 when down by eight or more points since 2017 under Shanahan, according to The Associated Press.
The Eagles, on the other hand, have rallied for halftime deficits in their past four games, and they do so behind a passing attack that offers Hurts what Shanahan calls a pair of “true No. 1 receivers,” in A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith. As 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks praised Hurts’ poise and confidence, he added how Hurts has “an ability to never be out of it. He can bring those guys back.”
Shanahan’s goal to counter that: “You’ve got to be able to weather the storm when they get you. Let it be a first down and not a touchdown. Play very disciplined, very sound, and when you get your opportunity to make plays you can’t miss them.”