JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Brandon Aiyuk and Arik Armstead talked the other day about where the 49ers are headed. It wasn’t so much about a destination as it was the NFL season’s autumn wind.
“November, December football is a time when the dogs, the real boys, come out to play football,” Aiyuk said. “We’re excited for this time, because we know how important the next few months are for where we want to be.”
October got messy. The 49ers morphed from 5-0 world power into a mortal combatant on a three-game losing streak. Emerging from last weekend’s bye, they’ve made changes and plotted a familiar path.
First up is cross-country, 10 a.m. PT kickoff to take on the NFL’s hottest team, the Jaguars, who entered their own bye last weekend on a five-game win streak. They have an AFC South-best record of 6-2, and they’ve won 11 of their past 13 regular-season games.
Looking back on the 49ers’ second-half surge last season, they went from 4-4 at the bye to a 13-4, NFC West-winning mark, en route to NFC Championship Game trauma. In 2021, the 49ers flipped from 3-4 into a 10-7 playoff team that ultimately blew it the NFC Championship Game.
“We just need a win. We need to have that feeling again of winning and get on a streak and roll,” quarterback Brock Purdy said. “The second half of the season is huge.”
Here are the five keys to winning in Jacksonville, which the 49ers did (30-10) amid their November 2021 surge:
1. McCaffrey’s 100 Club
Christian McCaffrey must outpace counterpart Travis Etienne and eclipse the 20-carry, 100-yard threshold as he did in three of the 49ers’ first four wins. No other running backs are racking up more yards: McCaffrey has 652 rushing, 292 receiving; Etienne has 583 rushing, 266 receiving. Add it up and McCaffrey has a 95-yard lead.
The 49ers’ catalyst insists they must do better on third down and avoid turnovers. Those are cliché objectives. So, McCaffrey expanded: “From my vantage point, it’s breaking a couple more second-level tackles and getting more explosives.”
Indeed, for as much credit as McCaffrey deservingly gets – he’s matched an NFL record by scoring in 17 straight games– his ability to break defenders’ grasp gets overlooked. “It’s hard to get him on the ground,” Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said. “He can break tackles. He’s strong. A physical back that does good things.”
McCaffrey also packs lightning-quick speed (20.9 mph on his 51-yard touchdown run in a Week 2 win at the Rams). What could help him return to early-season form is the expected comeback of Deebo Samuel, who can either serve as a 1-2, ball-carrying punch with McCaffrey or act as a decoy to open space for him.
The Jaguars boast the NFL’s third-stingiest run defense. Foyesade Oluokon led the NFL in tackles the previous two seasons, and his 92 this year rank third, 18 behind the Bears’ T.J. Edwards.
2. BETTER RUN DEFENSE
Linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw have missed too many tackles of late. The defensive ends have not forced rushers back inside. Safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson Sr. have not made nearly enough plays, if any.
All aspects of the 49ers’ defense must rally up and take on one of the NFL’s most versatile and electric players in Etienne. His second-gear burst is well remembered by two 49ers defensive ends who were Clemson teammates with Etienne.
“When you talk about a guy who can get to the second level at a different speed, that’s Travis,” Clelin Ferrell said. “He’s a guy that’s got very, very special talent and how fast he can get to top speed.”
Added Austin Bryant: “From Day 1, he was a guy that could take it to the house any time he touched it. And he’s still that guy. Super consistent this year.”
3. PRESSURE LAWRENCE
Trevor Lawrence, a rookie and No. 1 pick when the 49ers came to town in 2021, has evolved into a quick-throw artist. Limiting those short passes to Etienne, tight end Evan Engram and slot receiver Christian Kirk will demand immediate pressure from the 49ers’ defensive front.
Cue up Nick Bosa’s returns to his native Florida, with a new wingman in Chase Young coming in from the opposite defensive end spot.
“We’ll have a good plan for them,” said Lawrence, eluding confidence from the Jaguars’ past encounters with double-trouble pass rushers, such as last game against the Steelers and last season’s playoff win over the Chargers.
Bosa’s strategy against Lawrence: “You stop the run, you stop the screens, the (run-pass options), the quick game and you try and force him to play quarterback, to play the position, to go through reads, and hopefully later in the game, make those plays.”
Lawrence is averaging just 2.41 seconds to throw, the second-quickest time behind the Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa. Kyle Shanahan said Lawrence’s 6-foot-6 height and athletic ability makes him “a problem at any time.”
4. PURDY REBOUND
Brock Purdy and Lawrence are both completing 68.3 percent of their passes, and Purdy’s five interceptions (all in the past three games) are only one more than Lawrence.
Trading completions is fine. Continuing a turnover trend is not, and a refreshed Purdy is determined to clean up his act in the fourth quarter. He’ll have to do so against the NFL’s co-leader in takeaways with 18, 11 of which have come on interceptions.
“I’m an aggressive kind of quarterback in terms of anticipation where my guys are supposed to be, I trust them, and I let it rip,” Purdy said. “But there’s times where I’ve got to be smart with it and be willing to take the check down.”
The Jaguars’ Josh Allen, drafted five spots after Bosa in 2019, has racked up nine sacks, so Purdy will be keeping an eye on where No. 41 is. The Jaguars’ next-most sacks have come from 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker, who has just 3 ½ sacks. That’s not exactly the second-coming of “Sacksonville” from the 2017 Jaguars.
One of the biggest issues facing Purdy and the passing attack is how the left side can protect. Left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) missed the past two games and left guard Aaron Banks (toe) likely will miss this one.
5. DEFENSIVE DOMINANCE
Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will debut on the sideline, after calling the first eight games from the booth, and that should streamline communication for which plays to call. A simple fix, right? “We play the same calls that we did last year. Nothing’s really changed,” Greenlaw said. “We have to do a better job executing.”
It’s not as if Wilks is moving downstairs to see the dejection in defensive backs’ eyes after they yield a penalty or touchdown. He wants to create “more dialogue” from the defensive front through the secondary. Such a shift somewhat worked last week for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they won with offensive coordinator Matt Canada moving down to the sideline.
Instead of staring at his play sheet in a hermetically sealed suite, “Now I can go right over to the D-Line and say, ‘OK, I’m looking to change this stuff, next series.’ It could be with the back-seven for us, the pass concepts where we may be getting hurt on a certain route. And it could be empty and I went, ‘OK, I want to change this.’ ”
There’s a reason the defense has been the center of recent changes. The 49ers traded for two pass rushers in Young and Randy Gregory this past month. It also wouldn’t be suprirising to see a move at the problematic nickel-back job, where Isaiah Oliver has been poor in coverage but better in run defense, the latter of which is critical this game.
Simply, the 49ers’ defense must put pressure on Lawrence and stop the run. Gap assignments must be executed. Violence must be administered by the linebackers. Tackles must be clean and hard.
“We just have to get back to playing our style, honestly,” Warner said. “We’ve always been known for swarming to the football, imposing our will and dictating on the defensive side. That’s something that was lacking the last three weeks.”
