49ers beat Bears, but NFC West gets tougher

SANTA CLARA — The 49ers finally put together a complete game Sunday, and due to circumstances beyond their control, it may be too late.

When Seattle beat Arizona 30-18 and then the L.A. Rams took down Buffalo 44-42, it put the 49ers in the precarious position of likely missing the postseason after going to four NFC championship games and playing in two Super Bowls since 2019.

The permutations are too many to break down, but according to The Athletic’s model, the 49ers have a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs and four percent of winning the division.

The 49ers beat the Chicago Bears 38-13, in their best beginning-to-end performance of the season, and did it without running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, both on injured reserve, as well as mainstays Trent Williams and Nick Bosa.

The 49ers had lost all five games in which they were without both Williams and Bosa. It remains to be seen if Williams or Bosa will be ready to face the Thursday night.

Coach Kyle Shanahan has spoken frequently of how costly early giveaway losses to the Rams in Week 2 and the Cardinals in Week 5 were in terms of digging themselves a hole.

For the 49ers to excavate themselves from the No. 4 position in the division and actually make the playoffs, winning their last four games of the season is likely the only path.

That means the 49ers would have to close the season with a five-game win streak. Considering the longest win streak for the 49ers all season is two games (vs. Dallas on Oct. 27 and vs. Tampa Bay Nov. 10 — games separated with a bye) it’s a tall order.

With the Rams up next, the 49ers can either increase their chances or all but wave the 2024 season goodbye.

“It’s going to come fast and the only way we’re going to really enjoy this is if we take care of business on Thursday,” Shanahan said. “And then we’ll have three days to enjoy it and come back and deal with our last three games. But if you don’t take care of business Thursday, not much to celebrate about today.”

Middle linebacker Fred Warner was of a similar mindset.

“We just wanted one win. That was the goal today, to just get one win,” Warner said. “Now, we got that, and it’s the same thing this week. Just one win — Thursday night against a division opponent and we’ve got to win the division. We’ve got to win all these, honestly, but it’s just about one game.”

Here’s a look at the rest of the NFC West heading into Week 15:

Seattle (8-5): The clear front-runner nobody expected in the division. Geno Smith continues to throw safe and short with effectiveness, Zach Charbonnet gained 134 yards and averaged 6.1 per carry with two touchdowns against Arizona.

Remaining games: vs. Green Bay (9-4), vs. Minnesota (11-2), at Chicago (4-9), at L.A. Rams (7-6).

L.A. Rams (7-6): Based on the win over Buffalo, the Rams appear to be getting healthy and hitting their stride on offense. Ran the ball 42 times and passed it 30 against the Bills. They’re a threat to beat anyone with that kind of ratio.

Remaining games: at 49ers (6-7), at N.Y. Jets (3-10), vs. Arizona (6-7), vs. Seattle (8-5)

Arizona (6-7): Considering their next two opponents, the Cardinals appear destined for 8-7 with two games to play before division games against the Rams and 49ers. Gave up way too much (9-for-15 on third downs, 409 yards) defensively against a fairly pedestrian Seahawks team.

Remaining games: vs. New England (3-10), at Carolina (3-10), at L.A. Rams (7-6), vs. 49ers (6-7).

Here’s how the regular season finishes for the 49ers:

vs. L.A. Rams (7-6): Shanahan and the Rams’ Sean McVay don’t talk about it, but based on Michael Silver’s book “The Why is Everything” both coaches would take great delight in making things difficult for the other with a Thursday night win.

at Miami (6-7): The Dolphins escaped disaster by beating the Jets in overtime and as of now remain on the fringe of AFC East contention. They visit Houston (8-5), currently in playoff position, before facing the 49ers.

vs. Detroit (12-1): The Lions’ remaining schedule (vs. Buffalo, at Chicago, vs. 49ers, at Minnesota) suggests there’s no chance the Lions will come into Levi’s Stadium without a sense of desperation with Philly on their heels. And after last year’s NFC championship game, Dan Campbell will have the Lions foaming at the mouth,

at Arizona (6-7): The Cardinals are in the midst of a fade after earlier being in position to be the division champion. This game could mean everything to both Arizona and the 49ers. More likely, it will mean the end of the season.

NFC playoff seedings through Week 14:

1. Detroit (12-1): Tight race with Philly for the top spot. Hard to believe based on the way Detroit has played it won’t get there.

2. Philadelphia (11-2): The Eagles recovered nicely from last year’s post-49ers nosedive. They’ve won nine straight with Pittsburgh (10-3) and Washington (8-5) up next before closing with Dallas and the New York Giants. Running back Saquon Barkley remains a viable MVP candidate.

3. Seattle (8-5): Who had Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald as a coach of the year candidate and finishing ahead of the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals? Not many.

4. Tampa Bay (7-6): It would be a shame if any team other than the Buccaneers won the NFC South because Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback in the division capable of winning a playoff game.

5. Minnesota (11-2): If you’ve ever needed evidence that supporting cast and coaching matter to a quarterback, take a look at Sam Darnold. He was 22-of-28 for 347 yards and five touchdowns against Atlanta. And he could be available to the highest bidder for 2025. Pick a good coach and team, Sam.